The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

VP decision day for Harris as she secures Democratic presidential nom

Kari Lake’s risky bet: Double down on MAGA

Incumbents on the edge in Tuesday’s primaries

The latest on how House Dems train their staff

THE TOP

VP decision day for Harris as she secures Democratic presidential nom

Happy Tuesday morning.

Vice President Kamala Harris all but officially secured the Democratic nomination for president late Monday night, the DNC announced, making her only the second woman — and first woman of color — to do so.

Now comes another huge moment, perhaps just as decisive. Harris is expected to unveil her running mate for the top of the November ticket today.

The pair will later appear at an event at Temple University in Philadelphia, the first stop in a five-day blitz that will take Harris to some of the key battleground states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Harris will end the week in San Francisco, back home where it all began for her.

Speculation swirled Monday night around two popular Democratic governors — Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Tim Walz of Minnesota. The lobbying campaign surrounding both men highlights the progressive-moderate split inside the party. One of those factions will be disappointed by whoever she chooses. But the desire to beat former President Donald Trump is likely to outweigh any internal party disputes, Harris and her advisers hope.

Up until now, Harris has had a pretty charmed launch of her presidential bid. She raised more than $200 million during her first week in the race, a staggering sum. Harris has erased President Joe Biden’s deficit in the polls, or is even ahead of Trump in some surveys. Harris’ campaign is packing arenas and drawing tens of thousands of supporters for Zoom calls. And Harris has unified the Democratic Party after a nasty round of infighting over Biden’s ability to win in November.

There are 91 days until Election Day. Whether Harris — a very careful deliberator — goes with Shapiro or Walz, she’ll be forced to explain the pick and rally Democrats around her running mate.

A number of key progressives are pushing for Walz, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.). Both lawmakers joined a “Progressives for Harris” Zoom call Monday night that attracted more than 100,000 listeners.

Neither mentioned the veepstakes on the call, although they stressed the need to keep the momentum going. Here’s Jayapal on the current moment for Democrats:

But Harris isn’t president — that’s still Biden’s job. She has limited decision-making powers. Yet Harris has to contend with all the fallout from the decisions Biden makes over the next three months.

The economy. July’s jobs numbers combined with a market downturn Monday have given fuel to the idea that the U.S. economy could be entering a recession. Let’s be clear: economists and stock market experts are about as good as pollsters these days. Let’s not go crazy yet.

But stocks were battered Monday. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ were both down roughly 3%. The Dow fared slightly better.

The Nikkei 225 index recaptured much of the lost ground from Monday, its worst day in decades. Investors will be watching very closely what happens in European markets and on Wall Street today.

If the U.S. economy slips into a recession, or it looks like a downturn is imminent, you know Trump will hammer Harris over it. He and GOP leaders are already slamming Democrats on inflation and the high cost of living.

Problems in the Mideast and beyond. The crisis in the Middle East is growing. Rockets were fired at U.S. troops at Ain al Asad Air Base in western Iraq Monday. The New York Times reported that the attack “resembled previous ones carried out by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday evening that he spoke to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the two “agreed the attack from Iran-aligned militias on U.S. forces stationed at Al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq marked a dangerous escalation” by proxies in the region.

Meanwhile, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, has been in Israel this week consulting with military leaders as Iran plans to, once again, attack the Jewish State in revenge for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Haniyeh ran Hamas’ political office in Qatar.

On Israel, Harris has an extremely intricate balance to strike. Progressives loathe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and how he’s prosecuted the war in Gaza against Hamas. In her own recent meeting with Netanyahu, Harris pressed him for a ceasefire and hostage deal, something that Biden has done for months too.

But Israel has been and is expected to be under attack by Iran and its proxies any time now. The United States has already said that it would defend Israel against such attacks — as it did in April — raising the prospects of a wider regional conflict in the midst of a White House campaign. Trump and Republicans will look to highlight anything less than 100% support for Israel, even as the Gaza war grinds on.

— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Melanie Zanona

ON THE TRAIL

Kari Lake’s risky bet: Double down on MAGA

PHOENIX — Kari Lake is taking a massive gamble.

The GOP Senate nominee in Arizona is rejecting the notion that she needs to shed her reputation as a MAGA warrior in order to win in a state where disaffected Republicans and right-leaning independents have propelled Democrats to narrow victories in recent statewide elections.

In an interview aboard her campaign bus Monday evening, Lake made it clear that her strategy to win over this crucial bloc is to double down on MAGA — not back away.

“I honestly believe that the America First agenda is the greatest way for people in the middle,” Lake told us, emphasizing crime and the border. “Unfortunately, we have to push back against a very corrupt media that’s trying to paint this movement as extremist. Frankly, I don’t see anything extremist.”

Lake’s campaign centers around the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, which has disproportionately impacted Arizona and other border states. Lake’s theory of the case is that disaffected Republicans and GOP-friendly independents will come home to the party as she faces off against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).

“Arizona is at the center of the political universe,” Lake added. “We’re taking incoming from a terrible border policy, we’re seeing the cartels run our border, illegals pouring in, human trafficking, child sex trafficking, fentanyl trafficking.”

Lake won her primary last week, but by a closer-than-expected margin, leading Democrats to question whether Republicans will ultimately unify behind her. At the same time, though, Lake won support from a prominent establishment Republican and one-time rival, Karrin Taylor Robson.

The fight for Arizona’s middle: To be sure, the border crisis is a dominant issue in each of the competitive Senate races. Plus, former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics average of recent Arizona polls. So Lake’s instincts here could prove correct.

“Arizona being a border state and Kamala Harris having served as the failed border czar is not going to play very well,” NRSC Chair Steve Daines told us.

But previous elections show that Lake could be making an extremely risky bet in a state with such a unique electorate — including a bellwether voting bloc that has already rejected the MAGA brand.

President Joe Biden won here in 2020, and two years later Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs won statewide. Hobbs defeated Lake, who’s continuing to challenge those results in court.

All three Democrats owed their victories, at least in part, to support from independents as well as the formidable coalition of Republicans aligned with the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Many would be voting for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) this year if she’d decided to seek reelection.

Sinema has no plans to endorse a successor. It’s not difficult to see why. Gallego had long criticized Sinema from the left. Lake’s MAGA politics and her history of boosting Trump’s false claims of a stolen election were always unlikely to win over one of the Senate’s most well-known moderates.

Many Arizona voters could ultimately find themselves in the same spot as Sinema, with the race having become so nationalized that they don’t have an obvious candidate to gravitate toward.

Gallego courts Republicans: Some Republicans have already flocked to Gallego, who this week announced a “Republicans for Ruben” initiative that includes former McCain staffers and other longtime Republicans critical of the party’s Trumpian drift.

Gallego is aiming to replicate Democrats’ success with this group of voters in 2020 and 2022. Gallego wasn’t made available for an interview on Monday.

“There are a lot of Republicans in Arizona that don’t feel comfortable with [Lake], and that bodes well for Ruben,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters told us.

Lake dismissed the effort as a smokescreen for Gallego’s progressive voting record and his support for gutting the filibuster.

“He’s like a cross between Mr. Rogers and G.I. Joe — but he’s actually Nancy Pelosi, he’s more radical than the squad,” Lake said.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN

Incumbents on the edge in Tuesday’s primaries

Happy primary day! Here are the top races we are tracking today.

Will Bush be the second Squad member to lose their primary?

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) is locked in a tight primary challenge against Wesley Bell — a high-profile race that has again featured millions of dollars in outside spending. Bush, who unseated longtime Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay Jr. (Mo.) in 2020, is now at risk of losing her own 1st District seat.

Bush is a liberal firebrand whose strongly pro-Palestinian views have attracted AIPAC’s super PAC to spend $9.1 million to elect Bell. Bush recently told the New York Times that she didn’t know if Hamas was a terrorist organization, saying Black Lives Matter protesters in Ferguson, Mo., were once labeled terrorists. Bell, a fellow Black Democrat who is the St. Louis County’s prosecuting attorney, has attacked Bush for voting against the infrastructure act and not accurately representing her constituents.

If Bell wins, it’ll be another blow for the far-left Squad this summer. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) lost his primary in June.

Will another pro-impeachment House Republican fall?

Former President Donald Trump has endorsed two Republican challengers to incumbent GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse in Washington’s 4th District. Newhouse is one of only two House Republicans left in Congress who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection. In Washington’s primary system, the top two vote-getters regardless of party advance. We’ll be tracking if either Jerrod Sessler or Tiffany Smiley make the cut.

Are any upsets on the horizon in Michigan’s marquee Senate race?

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) are the heavy favorites to advance to the general election to fill retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) seat. But it’s not a procession for either candidate, with Slotkin facing actor Hill Harper and Rogers facing the likes of former Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.).

Elsewhere in Michigan, Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) faces a primary challenge in the 13th District from Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters. Waters is backed by Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. In a boost for Thanedar, however, a would-be challenger endorsed by top Congressional Black Caucus leaders was thrown off the ballot earlier this year.

In the state’s 8th District, two Republicans — failed 2022 candidate Paul Junge and Mary Draves — are facing off to fill the open seat vacated by Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-Mich.) upcoming retirement.

— Max Cohen

CAPITOL CAMPUS

The latest on how House Dems train their staff

Here’s an interesting update from the House Democratic internal staff training program: Staff from every House Democratic office have attended trainings run by Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar’s office.

A total of 1,331 individual staffers have attended training sessions this year since Aguilar’s office ramped up the internal training program. The most popular sessions focused on legislative topics, with primers on appropriations and suspension of the rules leading the way.

Behind legislative series, communications and digital strategies were the second-most popular among Democratic staffers. Some examples of these sessions include “How To: Have a Successful Bill Rollout,” “How To: Host a Press Conference” and “Photography Basics.”

The trainings are moderated by House Democratic staffers and feature special outside guests like Biden-Harris administration officials, members themselves and representatives from social media companies.

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Orange County, Calif., district attorney’s office has signed up Akin Gump to lobby Congress on its DNA program. The program “stores the DNA profiles of defendants who provided a voluntary DNA sample as a term of a negotiated case disposition. The OCDA DNA Database contains approximately 195,663 individual defendant DNA profiles which are routinely searched against crime scene DNA profiles.”

Adam Frisch, the Democrat running for Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) old 3rd District seat in Colorado, has a new ad up that calls on Congress to stop spending and cut red tape. The ad also calls for “secure borders.” Frisch is running against Jeff Hurd. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the seat as lean Republican.

— Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS