Thune on FOD: Dems want a shutdown

IN THIS EDITION

Thune: Democrats want ‘fight’ with Trump, government shutdown

5 things we learned from the Senate’s latest nuclear fight

Maryland Dems huddle on redistricting

Uncertainty over future of Senate NDAA

THE TOP

Thune: Democrats want ‘fight’ with Trump, government shutdown

Happy Friday morning.

News: Senate Majority Leader John Thune told us on Fly Out Day that he believes Democrats have made the decision to force a government shutdown, a stunning analysis with less than 20 days until the spending deadline.

“I think they see it as politically advantageous to have a shutdown,” Thune said during an interview Thursday in the Punchbowl News Townhouse, referring to Democrats.

Democratic leaders — namely Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have signaled that they will vote against a clean short-term government funding package unless Republicans agree to attach health care policy to the bill.

Democrats have mentioned extending enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits or rolling back elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill as a price for their votes to keep the government open.

Thune told us that there’s no way he would agree to Democrats’ demands on the Obamacare credits in a short-term, clean funding bill, dramatically increasing the chances of a government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Thune said that while he’s open to discussions about extending the policy, “not on a seven-week CR, no.”

The Obamacare tax credits are seen as a lowest-common-denominator ask for Democrats in the funding fight. In reality, the Democratic rank-and-file thinks health care policy isn’t enough of a concession to win their votes.

In the meantime, the Four Corners — the top appropriators in the House and Senate — are nearing a deal on a package of three funding bills alongside a stopgap measure that would keep the entire government open until Nov. 20, just days before Thanksgiving. This could be on the House floor as soon as next week.

Of course, a deal among appropriators and a House vote is for naught if Schumer and Jeffries are demanding major health-care policy changes in return for keeping the federal government open.

Democrats feel like they have no other option than to fight hard, especially given the pressure from their base and what they see as a need to hold the White House accountable. Schumer and Jeffries are paired at the hip on this strategy.

Obamacare tax credits. Like Speaker Mike Johnson, Thune seemed very aware of the politics surrounding the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits.

The Democratic-controlled Congress loosened eligibility requirements for the tax credits during the COVID-19 pandemic as a way to help Americans pay for health insurance. Obamacare already subsidizes insurance for many Americans. But if the enhanced credits expire, as many as four million enrollees may see their premiums spike dramatically.

Thune’s view is that the House and Senate may end up cutting a deal somewhere “in the middle.”

“I suspect at some point the White House is going to weigh in,” Thune added.

Various GOP senators, including Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri, have voiced support for extending the tax credits.

Thune still doesn’t like tariffs. Thune, who is in his first year as Senate Republican leader, has been a key ally of President Donald Trump. But one area where Thune and Trump don’t see eye-to-eye is on the president’s tariff policies.

Thune represents one of the largest agricultural states in America. He noted that there will be “some real issues in farm country with regard to trade and markets more generally.”

“Representing an ag state, this has very direct consequences, particularly with regard to Asia because that’s such a big market,” Thune said. “Sixty-percent of South Dakota soy beans are exported – and mostly to China. And that market’s now shut down.”

We talked with Thune about a lot in this second episode of Fly Out Day, including his view on Federal Reserve independence, the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, national security and the Senate map in 2026.

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– Jake Sherman

NEW: We’re excited to host our annual Punchbowl News HQ on Thursday, Sept. 25, during the CBCF Annual Legislative Conference. This all-day convening will feature conversations with leaders, including Maryland Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and Gov. Wes Moore, an expert panel and Chief Compliance Officer of Chime Shara Chang. Get on our list to attend!

THE SENATE

5 things we learned from the Senate’s latest nuclear fight

Senate Republicans went nuclear on Thursday, enacting a major change to the way the chamber confirms presidential nominees in response to Democrats’ unprecedented slow-walking of President Donald Trump’s picks.

The Senate will now be able to confirm an unlimited number of sub-Cabinet nominations simultaneously, which means Trump — and future presidents — can staff up much more quickly.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer panned the move as “an act of genuflection to the executive branch.”

Both parties acknowledge the chamber’s confirmation process has long been broken and the current trajectory is unsustainable. And both parties are to blame for the deterioration that led to this point.

As Republicans prepare to confirm the first batch of nominees under the new rules next week, here are five things we learned from the Senate’s latest nuclear episode.

Thune’s ‘tough guy’ era. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has a “nice guy” reputation. But Thune has embraced hardball tactics against Democrats all year. Thune also usually follows through when he’s threatened to employ them.

Speaking on the Senate floor Thursday night, Thune grew uncharacteristically heated in denouncing Democrats’ eleventh-hour attempts to negotiate a bipartisan agreement and fend off the nuclear option. Those talks fell apart.

Here’s what Thune told us in a brief interview after walking off the floor:

Trump gets his way. Senate GOP leaders have so far protected key institutional prerogatives and levers of minority power — like the blue-slip tradition — in the face of Trump’s prodding. They’ve also committed to maintaining the legislative filibuster.

But with this rule change, Trump got what he wanted and faced little resistance from Senate Republicans — even after Trump blew up a bipartisan deal that would’ve seen dozens of his nominations confirmed before the August recess.

Schumer’s base play. Many of the nominations caught up in the backlog got Democratic votes in committee. But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has justified the blanket slow-walking of Trump’s picks by arguing that “historically bad” nominees merit a “historical response” from Democrats.

It’s a clear play to the party’s base by Schumer. We’re in a political environment in which Democrats simply can’t help grease the skids for a single Trump nominee. That’s why it was hard to see Democrats agreeing to any sort of compromise on the GOP rules-change effort, even a modest one.

Shutdown tea leaves. While not directly related to the impending government shutdown, the bad blood stemming from the collapse of Thursday’s bipartisan negotiations will further exacerbate tensions heading into a key couple of weeks on FY2026 spending.

Democrats are already slamming Republicans for refusing to negotiate over their health care-related demands, and they said Thursday’s events were more evidence of GOP intransigence.

“They don’t really remember how to compromise,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us. “That has been the story of this Congress. They have not demonstrated any real desire to work with us.”

Shoe on the other foot. Future Democratic presidents and Democratic-controlled Senates will benefit from this rules change — something Thune acknowledged.

It also renders obsolete a key leverage point for senators in the minority party: Placing a hold on a nomination to extract a concession. Democrats’ blanket holds, though, have already weakened the practice because it gives the White House no incentive to negotiate.

— Andrew Desiderio and Brendan Pedersen

MARYLAND MATTERS

Maryland Dems huddle on redistricting

News: Maryland Democrats aren’t fully sold yet on a mid-decade redrawing of the Free State’s congressional map.

The Democratic congressional delegation met privately on Monday to discuss the logistics of redistricting before 2026, a crucial step in the party’s broader quest to retaliate against Republicans’ gerrymandering.

“It was an interesting exchange of views about where we are, but I don’t think there was any resolution to do anything right now,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said. Raskin called it “a free and frank exchange.”

Democrats remained tight-lipped about the specifics of the discussion, describing it as a preliminary temperature check for the delegation.

The Democrats talked about possible changes to the eight Maryland districts and the potential difficulty of surviving a legal challenge to a new map, according to people familiar with the meeting.

House Democratic leaders are eager to see a new map in Maryland, where the party controls the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature. Democrats already hold seven of the eight congressional seats in the state, but a new map could give them a clean sweep by targeting GOP Rep. Andy Harris on the Eastern Shore.

But redistricting is a deeply personal issue. Several members of the delegation would have to cede Democratic voters to make Harris’ seat blue. Reps. Kweisi Mfume in Baltimore, Johnny Olszewski in Baltimore County and Sarah Elfreth in the Annapolis area could see their seats change the most in redistricting.

And any new map will likely have to shore up Democratic Rep. April Delaney in western Maryland, who has the most competitive of the eight seats.

The Maryland Democrats struck a different tone after their meeting than their California colleagues, who left their own redistricting summit crowing over a planned remap.

“We had a private talk,” Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said when asked about the Democratic meeting.

The courts remain a major concern for Democrats. In the 2022 cycle, Maryland Democrats drew a map that transformed Harris’ deep red district into a battleground seat.

Then a circuit court judge struck down that map as unconstitutional. Democrats were especially stung by this because the judge, Lynne Battaglia, was a onetime chief of staff to former Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.).

The case never even made it to Maryland’s highest court. But as we noted last week, five of those seven judges were appointed by Republican Gov. Larry Hogan.

Still Maryland Democrats are eager to do their part in negating what they see as Republican power grabs in red states and could very well attempt a new map.

The delegation plans to meet again soon for further discussion.

— Ally Mutnick

DEFENSE FORECAST

Uncertainty over future of Senate NDAA

Whether the Senate passes its version of the annual defense policy bill is still very much in flux.

NDAA amendment votes could occur next week. But as we reported Thursday, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is poised to object to any amendments unless he secures a vote on his proposal to end the Federal Reserve’s practice of paying interest on bank reserves.

And there’s still no final agreement on a second manager’s package of amendments.

So it’s increasingly likely the chamber may forgo floor votes on its bill, kicking off another informal conference negotiation between the Senate and House.

In the House. House GOP leaders passed their version of the NDAA Wednesday night over opposition from most Democrats, following a playbook the chamber has put into practice in recent sessions.

It goes like this: The House Armed Services Committee approves its bipartisan NDAA with one or two defections. The bill hits the floor, is amended to include so-called “culture war provisions” and clears the chamber on a near-party-line vote.

And then legislation reaches a House-Senate conference, where in recent years, the Democratic-run Senate has moderated the final bill.

Even with complete GOP control of Washington, House lawmakers on both sides of the aisle don’t expect that playbook will change.

As Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said this week: “It’s still got to get 60 votes in the Senate. So I think it will come back the way it always does.”

Translation: The final NDAA will look a lot more like the Senate’s version than the House version.

– Briana Reilly

….AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi will headline Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) 23rd Annual Women’s Equality Luncheon on Friday. Hoyer was Pelosi’s longtime No. 2 in House Democratic leadership. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) will also attend.

Downtown Download. WHOOP, the wearable fitness and life tracker that one of the Punchbowl News founders who wrote this item loves, has hired Alpine Group Partners to lobby on “FY27 Appropriations, FY27 NDAA, and privacy legislation.”

– Ally Mutnick and Jake Sherman

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