The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The DCCC’s big month. And what the GOP is thinking about leadership

Senate Democrats eye an abortion rights filibuster carve-out

The Hill dynamics of Project 2025

ICYMI: Bice on CR, GOP fundraising and defense aviation

THE TOP

The DCCC’s big month. And what the GOP is thinking about leadership

Happy Friday morning.

First, some breaking fundraising news: The DCCC raised an eye-popping $22.3 million in August, leaving the House Democratic campaign arm with more than $87 million on hand in the final stretch of the election.

The DCCC now has raised more than $250 million for the cycle, including $129 million so far in 2024.

For comparison: In August 2022, the DCCC raised $15.5 million. In August 2020, the DCCC raised $22.6 million. The DCCC is shellacking the NRCC in fundraising.

On to Republicans. There are 46 days until the 2024 election. All the focus, of course, is on the battle for the White House. That means it’s time for us to begin discussing the future of the House Republican leadership.

Unlike Democrats, who in recent years, have run their leadership elections pretty efficiently, Republican leadership races are a bit like the Hunger Games.

For example, last year, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise effectively blamed his fellow Louisiania Republican, Rep. Garret Graves, for helping undercut his bid for speaker by sowing doubts over his colleague’s health following a cancer diagnosis. And who can forget that, following Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as speaker, House Republicans cycled through everyone in leadership until settling on Mike Johnson to lead the chamber.

From the 30,000-foot level, the party that wins the White House is likely to control the House. At least that’s the sense on Capitol Hill. Republicans are virtually assured to control the Senate. The only question there is how big the margin is.

Republicans keep the House. If Republicans control the House after Nov. 5, Johnson will be speaker again next year.

It won’t be easy. If the GOP margin narrows from the current four-seat edge, Johnson would have a tough hill to climb and would almost certainly open himself up to a challenger.

Whether former President Donald Trump wins the White House is the other key factor at play. If so, Trump is going to want the Republican leadership races in the House and Senate settled quickly. Johnson has done a lot of work to maintain close ties with Trump and sources in both camps say they have a good rapport. The two met Thursday evening.

Johnson has said he’d run for speaker again but is focused on winning and growing the GOP majority right now. The Louisiana Republican hasn’t publicly discussed what he’d do if the House flips.

As for the rest of the GOP leadership team, the general consensus is that the lineup will stay the same if Republicans hold the House. But there may be at least one open opportunity if House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik winds up in the Trump administration, which seems likely.

One important note — Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) won’t go anywhere if Republicans are in charge. Jordan says his only interest is “running to be the next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.”

Republicans lose the House. If Republicans lose the House, there will almost certainly be a big leadership shakeup. The potential showdown between Scalise and Jordan — bitter rivals during last year’s speaker showdown — will be a brawl.

Most senior GOP sources don’t believe Johnson will stay on as minority leader if Republicans lose their majority. Scalise is widely expected to run for minority leader. That contest is a secret ballot vote and only requires a simple majority of the Republican conference.

Scalise has built a massive political operation during his decade in leadership. His political team has raised $200 million since its inception in 2014. Between now and Election Day, Scalise already has 48 campaign events planned in more than 20 states.

The 58-year-old Scalise is in good health following recent cancer treatment. Scalise also still deals with some fallout from the near-fatal 2017 shooting.

The big question mark is what would Jordan do. The Ohio Republican’s colleagues believe Jordan has been itching to make a move and would make a play for the top spot. Jordan ran twice before — once for speaker and once for minority leader — and lost both times. But those close to him say he’s learned from those experiences.

Jordan has maintained a breakneck pace on the road over the last few months. He’s traveled not only to staunchly conservative districts but also swing seats in New York and other states. Jordan has also campaigned for Republicans who opposed him in his race for speaker.

While Jordan maintains publicly that he’s simply trying to boost GOP candidates and keep the majority, this kind of travel has caught the attention of leadership watchers inside the Capitol and downtown.

Meanwhile, Scalise met with the Ohio GOP delegation on Thursday and committed $100,000 to an effort to defeat an Ohio ballot initiative that would change the state’s redistricting process. Defeating the ballot initiative is a key priority for the Ohio GOP delegation, and Scalise lending his support could help him earn chits with Buckeye State Republicans. But most of them would likely feel obligated to back Jordan in a Jordan-Scalise matchup.

Republicans win the House, but Trump loses. This would be a less than ideal scenario for Johnson, although it seems improbable — but not impossible — that Republicans will hang on to their majority even if Trump falls short.

Still, it’s being quietly talked about in the Capitol. The fear here is that the certification of the 2024 election results could become a litmus test in the speaker’s race, with Trump already laying the groundwork to contest the outcome if it doesn’t go his way. The vice president, not the speaker, oversees the certification progress under a 2022 law passed by Congress. Yet even the VP’s role is “solely ministerial” and objections are harder to make.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

STILL TIME TO RSVP! Join us next Tuesday, Sept. 24, at 8:30 a.m. ET for an extended conversation on the importance of small business policy and its impact on the nation’s economic future.

We will have one-on-one conversations with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) about the news of the day and their legislative priorities when it comes to small business issues and the economy. This event is the culmination of a partnership with Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices program and the final event in the series for 2024. RSVP here!

Senate Democrats eye an abortion rights filibuster carve-out

As abortion dominates the 2024 election conversation, Senate Democrats are talking more seriously about creating a filibuster carve-out to codify Roe v. Wade if there’s a Democratic trifecta in Washington.

To be clear, full Democratic control of Washington isn’t likely with Republicans poised to win the Senate. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is tying abortion rights to filibuster reform in the hope it’ll help his party’s candidates and incumbents in November, especially in states where abortion rights are on the ballot.

Schumer’s vulnerable incumbents are taking those cues.

“I am certainly open to filibuster reform when it comes to constitutional and fundamental rights,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who’s facing a competitive reelection campaign against Republican Eric Hovde.

It’s no surprise that Democrats like Baldwin are placing a heavy emphasis on abortion, which has proven to be a winning issue for the party since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. But connecting it to the filibuster is an extra step — and a conscious decision by Schumer.

Schumer told us at the Democratic convention last month that he’s confident he’d have the votes to bypass the filibuster for an abortion bill. Schumer floated the possibility of seeking carve-outs for other legislation, too.

“I get asked about it. Individual members have come to me,” Schumer told us. “It’s pretty certain that voting rights — if we get our 50 and Kamala’s president, we have the votes to do that.”

The last time Democrats tried a filibuster carve-out — for voting rights — they were two votes short because Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) opposed the move.

But with both centrist senators retiring at the end of this year, Schumer’s theoretical Democratic majority would almost certainly have the votes to weaken the filibuster.

Abortion on the ballot: Voters in four states with closely-watched Senate races — Arizona, Nevada, Montana and Florida — will get to choose whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state’s constitution this year.

This is generally helpful to Democrats, who have seen abortion rights win out in practically every state where it’s been on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

But it’s not a sure bet unless voters who are motivated by the abortion ballot initiatives also vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.

Here’s Schumer:

November impacts: Not every Democrat seems to be totally on board with the filibuster connection, however. DSCC Chair Gary Peters dodged the question of a Roe filibuster carve-out when we asked him this week.

And during a press call promoting Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-Nev.) pro-choice record, Reproductive Freedom for All President Mini Timmaraju wouldn’t commit to backing filibuster changes to codify Roe.

“We support robust discussion and evaluation of the rules by Senate Democrats to get this past the finish line,” Timmaraju said. “We want our Senate Democrats to look at all options.”

Republicans are dug in against any changes to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, though former President Donald Trump has called for its elimination several times, and Democrats believe a Senate GOP majority would heed his calls.

GOP candidates and incumbents on the ballot in November are warning that if Democrats control the Senate, they’ll gut the filibuster entirely — not just for one-off legislation.

“If Schumer gets one more vote, he will end the filibuster altogether,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who’s in an expensive reelection fight, told us. “I don’t believe they [would] do it on any limited carveout.”

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

The Hill dynamics of Project 2025

House Democrats went all-in against Project 2025 this week, mounting a full court messaging push to warn voters of the far-right agenda they say will be implemented if former President Donald Trump wins the White House.

And sensing political vulnerability, Hill Republicans are eager to distance themselves from the Heritage Foundation vision for a Trump presidency. A majority of Americans view Project 2025 unfavorably, according to recent polling.

“Trump’s Project 2025 is the extreme MAGA Republican plan to exercise total control over the American people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us. “They can run from the manifesto, but we will not let them hide.”

More and more Republicans are indeed running from the policy platform, joining the Trump campaign in repudiating the Heritage Foundation’s expansive list of policy proposals. To be clear, there’s still substantial overlap between ideas and individuals included in Project 2025 and previous Trump administration officials.

“I don’t believe [Trump] had any involvement in crafting that project, and we should be honest about that,” Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) said.

Some center-right Republicans went as far as to criticize Heritage directly.

The organization, once a leading institution for Reaganites and old school conservatives, has embraced Trump’s America First brand of politics in recent years.

“Heritage has done a number of things over the last several years where they’ve lost credibility with a lot of us who are conservative, so I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to what comes out of Heritage anymore,” Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) told us.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who’s facing a tough reelection campaign, said he has not looked into Project 2025 at all.

“I haven’t read it and don’t plan on reading it,” Bacon told us. “Trump says he doesn’t support it. I think it’s become a fake talking point for the Dems.”

What’s in it: Among other policy goals, the 922-page-long Project 2025 recommends rebuilding Trump’s border wall, cutting government spending and banning people assigned male at birth from competing in women’s sports.

The Heritage Foundation has proposed policy blueprints in many past cycles as suggested guides for future GOP administrations, but the think tank has not asked candidates to endorse their proposals.

In a recent Fox News interview, Heritage President Kevin Roberts said Trump is telling the truth when he says he isn’t involved with Project 2025 and that the organization also hasn’t formally endorsed Trump. Roberts added that Heritage has historically remained candidate-neutral during presidential elections.

But Democrats are still trying their best to pin the project to Republicans.

Both Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer held Project 2025-themed news conferences on Thursday, along with Assistant House Democratic Leader Joe Neguse. All the Democratic leaders bashed Trump’s attempts to distance himself from the initiative.

“They’re trying to run away from it now because it’s so devastating to just about every American,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

What’s next: House Democrats will hold a public presentation on Tuesday to illustrate the impact of Project 2025 if these policies are implemented. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said on Thursday he wanted to take the presentations across the country.

Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) told us he’s been holding town halls across Wisconsin’s competitive House districts to slam Project 2025.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Bice on CR, GOP fundraising and defense aviation

Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) joined us Thursday for a conversation on the future of defense aviation as part of our ongoing series on the issue. She called for continuous and consistent funding of the U.S. air defense capabilities as a matter of national and global security.

Bice also discussed the challenges in passing a continuing resolution to keep the government funded and the GOP’s fundraising struggles.

If you weren’t able to join us, watch the full conversation here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

THE CAMPAIGN

News: New Democrat Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) distributed $155,000 to House Democratic members in competitive reelection races during a check drop Thursday night. More than 30 members were in attendance at the event.

Kuster is retiring at the end of this Congress and has told us she wants to continue to be a major player in the Democratic election world. Kuster has already given 100% of her DCCC dues.

News: Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-Nev.) reelection campaign is out with a new ad this morning criticizing her GOP opponent Sam Brown on abortion. It’s part of a multi-million dollar digital and TV campaign highlighting abortion rights.

The ad brings up Brown’s past anti-abortion comments, and the narrator refers to Brown as “a MAGA extremist trying to take away abortion rights.” Earlier this month, Brown suggested he’d vote against the state’s abortion ballot initiative in November. Rosen has been highlighting abortion rights as a key tenet of her campaign.

— Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

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