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September 22, 2022
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
Government funding runs out on Sept. 30 and we haven’t seen a funding bill yet.
However, Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform proposal was unveiled late Wednesday. Now the two sides can begin moving toward passage of a continuing resolution to fund federal agencies through mid-December while also greenlighting more aid for Ukraine.
Schumer could file cloture as early as today on the legislative vehicle for the CR. This would include Manchin’s permitting proposal. That’s key.
Filing today would set up a cloture vote on Tuesday night (the Senate is out Monday for Rosh Hashanah.) We expect that there won’t be anywhere near 60 votes for a motion to proceed to this shell bill due to the Manchin proposal. Senate Republicans and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have indicated they won’t vote for it.
Once it’s clear this shell bill can’t move forward with the Manchin provision attached, Democrats can then offer a “clean” CR. It could originate in either the House or Senate, although the Senate remains more likely. The CR is expected to include roughly $12 billion in Ukraine aid, and it will get overwhelming support from lawmakers eager to go home to campaign.
As we’ve said repeatedly, there’s not going to be a shutdown. But the process has been a bit messy. You can blame election-year politics and Senate rivalries.
What the House GOP agenda means for governing
Later today, House Republicans will hold a private party meeting to discuss their 2022 campaign season agenda, dubbed “The Commitment to America.” Former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Kellyanne Conway will moderate a conversation with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik. This meeting, during which they’ll be rolling out the agenda, is at 9 a.m. today.
The agenda will be publicly unveiled Friday in Monongahela, Pa.
We’re not going to bore you with how it came together or anything like that. What we want to do is lay out how it may impact the politics of legislating if Republicans win the House in November.
| → | Immigration: When Donald Trump was president, immigration was front and center of the political debate, to say the least. This House GOP agenda suggests that, once again, Congress and President Joe Biden will be forced into funding fights over immigration and border security. |
Here’s what the House GOP agenda says:
“Fully fund effective border enforcement strategies” is, of course, a subjective term. Republicans believe a border wall between the United States and Mexico is the most effective strategy to control illegal immigration. So this will be a huge point of tension between the White House and House Republicans.
| → | Side note: House conservatives are pushing Senate GOP leaders to only agree to a short-term government funding bill that extends into January. This would give any new House GOP majority a chance to wade into negotiations over FY 2023 spending. Now imagine an immigration fueled showdown five days into a potential House Republican majority? |
| → | Transgender politics: As part of their agenda, House Republicans are promising to “[d]efend fairness by ensuring that only women can compete in women’s sports.” The story of a transgender woman excelling in collegiate swimming at the University of Pennsylvania became a cause célèbre on the right. Republicans are saying plainly that they will wade directly into this hugely controversial topic. |
| → | Grabbing the third rail: The agenda says Republicans will “save and strengthen Social Security and Medicare.” From 2010 to 2016, House Republicans were all about reforming Medicare and Social Security. Remember Speaker Paul Ryan? It was his thing. From 2017 to 2020, Republicans dropped it because Trump thought it was unwise to mess with entitlement programs. McCarthy is again putting it center stage. |
Here’s McCarthy’s introduction video.
Also: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew went to the Congressional Football Game last night at Audi Field in D.C. He was meeting and greeting attendees along with members of the company’s government relations team, including Pelosi alum Toby Bloom and former NFL player and Paul Ryan staffer Derrick Dockery.
Here’s why this is interesting. TikTok is going to come under a microscope if Republicans take the majority. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) has already said that the company is one of the worst actors in tech because of their close links to China. Chew working the Congressional Football Game is notable.
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
OCTOBER EVENTS!
NEW: We’re excited to announce three new events for October. But we’re not done! Stay tuned for another October event that will be announced soon.
Wednesday, Oct. 12 at 9 a.m. ET: We’re having a one-on-one virtual conversation with Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) about issues facing American workers, including financial security, health care costs, and inflation. Presented by Aflac. RSVP Here!
Monday, Oct. 17 at 10 a.m. ET: Punchbowl News is on the road again! This time we’re heading to Miami for an interview with Mayor Francis Suarez (R). Join us at Miami Ironside, or on the livestream, for the final installment of our “Road to Recovery” series, presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices. RSVP here.
Wednesday, Oct. 19 at 9 a.m. ET: We’ll be sitting down with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) to talk about mobile technology security and app store legislation. Presented by Coalition for App Fairness. RSVP here to join us at Hawk ‘N’ Dove or on the livestream.
Meet The Punch Up sustainability cohort
Earlier this year, we launched The Punch Up. The Punch Up is Punchbowl News’ equity platform focused on bringing together a diverse set of decision makers from the business world, government and nonprofit sector for a series of open and robust conversations and dialogue.
Today, we’re excited to share the eight cohort members who will make up our second cohort of leaders focused on sustainability.
| → | Bridget Croke, founding member and managing director of Closed Loop Partners. |
| → | Laura Gillam, senior policy advisor for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. |
| → | Caitlin Haberman, senior professional staff member for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. |
| → | Jack McAneny, vice president of global sustainability of Procter & Gamble. |
| → | Amanda Nusz, senior vice president of corporate responsibility and president of Target Foundation. |
| → | Kishore Rao, global co-leader for sustainability and climate of Deloitte. |
| → | Cristina Rohr, managing director of investments of S2G Ventures. |
| → | Carla Walker, U.S. director of environment justice and equity for the World Resources Institute. |
Read more about their experiences, inspirations and challenges.
PARTISAN FIGHT
Spanberger, Good clash at Virginia delegation meeting with Youngkin
A meeting of the Virginia congressional delegation with GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin turned ugly Tuesday as Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Rep. Bob Good clashed over school policy on transgender students, “grooming,” and accusations that teachers are involved in “genital mutilations” of students.
Spanberger was upset by the “aggressive nature” of Good’s comments on transgender students and cursed at him, several attendees said. So yeah, it was a rough meeting.
Youngkin issued “model policies” last week that require Virginia schools to change how transgender students are treated. Transgender students will have to use school facilities and programs for the sex they were assigned at birth. Students can’t change their names at school without their parents’ permission. And schools can’t make staff members refer to transgender students “in any manner that would violate staff members’ ‘constitutionally protected rights,’” Axios reported.
Spanberger, a former CIA case officer, has been pretty critical of Youngkin’s initiative, saying it would harm LGBTQ students. “The Governor’s actions will hurt children, especially LGBTQ children who already suffer higher rates of depression and are at greater risk of suicide,” Spanberger said on Twitter last week.
During the delegation meeting, Spanberger told Youngkin she opposed his new policies although she remained respectful of the governor, according to two sources. Spanberger declined to comment for this story.
Good – who refers to himself as a “biblical conservative and constitutional conservative” – has backed legislation that would allow parents to sue schools if they “use pronoun changes without parental consent,” among other actions.
Good also recently cosponsored a bill with GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and other conservatives that would make it a federal crime to perform “gender affirming care” on minors, including surgery or use of puberty-blocking drugs.
In an interview, Good said Spanberger “attacked the governor with hostility and intensity for his common-sense … policies that he’s just released that protect children and protect parents from those who would seek to encourage a child to question his or her gender without parent knowledge.”
Good added:
Good said other Democrats got involved in the dispute at this time, but he wouldn’t discuss what comments they made.
More Good:
– John Bresnahan
DEMS IN DISARRAY
AOC sounds off on police funding package
The House will vote on a package of four public safety bills today. This is a huge win for Frontline Democrats who’ve been pressing their leaders for more police funding for months.
But not every Democrat is on board with the plan. We caught up with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who said Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s (D-N.J.) bill to give grants to small police departments raises “serious alarm bells.”
Here’s more from AOC:
Ocasio-Cortez was talking about changes the progressives, led by CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), successfully negotiated in Gottheimer’s bill. The police funding grants will now go to departments with 125 officers or less, as progressives demanded. Previously, departments with up to 200 officers could apply for the grants.
Jayapal defended the negotiations to reporters, saying lawmakers are now voting on a package of bills with police accountability language and data reporting requirements, something liberals and the Congressional Black Caucus demanded repeatedly.
Here’s more from Jayapal:
Gottheimer said his proposal “will ensure that local departments, in New Jersey and communities across our country, have what they need to recruit and retain the finest officers, to provide training, and invest in providing mental health resources.” It’s supported by the National Association of Police Organizations and the Fraternal Order of Police as well.
In addition to the Gottheimer bill, the House will vote on two other bills progressives were pushing – legislation from Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) to provide grants to train mental health responders, as well as a bill from Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) to provide violence intervention grants. The House will also vote on a proposal from Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) to help clear the backlog of unsolved homicides.
Other members of the Squad beyond AOC may vote against some or all of these bills, although they declined to say so publicly before the vote.
Yet despite having only a four-vote margin, House Democratic leaders are confident they’ll able to pass all of the bills.
– Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan
IN MEMORIAM
Emma Thomson’s memorial service
A memorial service for Emma Thomson, late Rep. Jackie Walorski’s (R-Ind.) communications director, will be held this afternoon at Capitol Hill Baptist Church. Thomson died in a tragic car accident with Walorski and another aide, Zachery Potts, in early August.
Here’s more information on the service for Thomson from the organizers:
Lawmakers honored Walorski and other members of Congress who have died this year during a memorial Tuesday night in the Capitol.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
PRESENTED BY CHEVRON
At Chevron, we’re looking to unexpected sources to help fuel a lower carbon future. We’re even converting methane from dairy cows into renewable natural gas.
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | New: Frontline Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Va.) is airing an ad where she touts her fight for more law-enforcement funding. The messaging comes on the same day that the House will vote on legislation that Spanberger supported to increase funding for small police departments. |
The spot centers on the town hall meetings the incumbent has hosted across her district. It also highlights Spanberger’s status as the fifth most bipartisan member of Congress.
Spanberger is running against Republican Yesli Vega in Virginia’s 7th District. The seat is rated “Lean Democratic” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
| → | New: Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, is out with an ad labeling Republican Doug Mastriano “extreme and way too dangerous” for the commonwealth. |
We normally don’t cover governor races, but Pennsylvania’s is particularly fascinating because of its relationship with the Senate race. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) refuses to back Mastriano, despite vocally backing GOP Senate candidate Mehmet Oz. And observers believe there’ll be a sizable number of Shapiro-Oz voters in November.
| → | We don’t see this too often. The NRCC is up on TV in Connecticut, where Republicans haven’t won a seat in 14 years. This spot is to benefit George Logan, who is running against Rep. Jahanna Hayes (D-Conn.). |
| → | E-PAC, House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s PAC, has a memo out talking about her PAC and party’s success recruiting and helping female candidates. |
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.