Trump goes nuclear on shutdown

IN THIS EDITION

Trump, Vought look to pressure Dems with federal layoffs

No pushback from DoD yet as shutdown looms

Tech: Guthrie wants probe of BrainCo

Ohio Republicans slow-walk redistricting

THE TOP

Trump, Vought look to pressure Dems with federal layoffs

Happy Thursday morning.

President Donald Trump is threatening large-scale firings of federal workers if the federal government shuts down next week, a nuclear tactic to make any funding lapse as painful as possible for Democrats.

In an extraordinary memo sent out by OMB Wednesday, the White House directed federal agencies to come up a with a list of “reductions in force” – layoffs – for workers whose activities aren’t paid for via mandatory funds, didn’t get new money from the One Big Beautiful Bill or whose “PPA [programs, projects or activities] is not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

More from OMB: “Once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their RIFs as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions.”

OMB didn’t provide any information on the scale of the possible firings. Politico reported that the potential layoffs wouldn’t apply to “Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits, military operations, law enforcement, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection and air traffic control,” according to an OMB official.

The unprecedented move by OMB Director Russ Vought dramatically raises the stakes of the shutdown fight just five days before the deadline. And it comes as the two sides still aren’t talking about how to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown. Speaker Mike Johnson, who pushed through a “clean” Nov. 21 CR last week, isn’t even planning on bringing his chamber back until after a shutdown has begun.

For a demoralized federal workforce that’s already been decimated by tens of thousands of DOGE-related layoffs, a lengthy shutdown – with no paychecks – would be a nightmare. The new threat means a shutdown could be the end of their government careers unless Congress or the courts stop it.

Democrats view this OMB memo as an intimidation tactic intended to bully them into accepting the House-passed “clean” CR. That’s not to say it’ll work. But Democrats know that shutdowns are already painful, and what Trump is threatening to do on top of that would be catastrophic.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, downplayed Vought’s threat:

You’ll recall that back in March, Schumer justified his decision to help Republicans keep the government open by arguing that Trump and Vought would try to maximize the pain of a shutdown.

Schumer is now demanding a negotiation over more than $1 trillion worth of health care-related policy changes and new restrictions on Trump’s ability to withhold funds. Those asks look quaint in the wake of OMB saying they’ll axe government employees during a shutdown.

“This is Russ Vought’s trademark chaos,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said in response to the OMB memo.

“Instead of coming to the table to negotiate lowering costs and addressing the health care crisis Republicans created, the White House is staging harmful charades like this that will impact all Americans,” DeLauro said.

Dems hardening their stance. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said earlier Wednesday that a bipartisan health care agreement needs to be “in legislation” in order for House Democrats to support any stopgap funding bill. Jeffries added that a verbal commitment from GOP leaders to address the Obamacare enhanced subsidy cliff wouldn’t be sufficient.

In a post on X, Jeffries bashed Vought over the new memo, saying, “We will not be intimidated by your threat to engage in mass firings… Get lost.”

In his campaign account, Jeffries urged Virginia voters – who have a gubernatorial election coming up – to “Remember in November.”

Yet as House minority leader, Jeffries has the easier job here. House Democrats can vote “no” without causing a shutdown. Schumer and Senate Democrats don’t have that luxury. Regardless of whether a deal is struck before Oct. 1 or after a shutdown takes hold, it’ll be extraordinarily difficult for Schumer to come out of this unscathed.

Schumer has repeatedly emphasized his alignment with Jeffries following the March debacle. Schumer, though, would be hard-pressed to echo Jeffries’ comments that any deal needs to be in legislation, at least publicly. If Schumer takes that specific of a position, the veteran party leaders would look bad if he accepts something different in the end.

While some Senate Democrats are very clearly agitating for a shutdown — or at least some sort of high-profile clash with the Trump administration — others are already starting to channel their fears about the catastrophic impacts of such a move.

“If [congressional] leadership and the president just behave like adults and sit down at the table and work this out, this is not something that can’t be worked out,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told us Wednesday.

The New Hampshire Democrat is adamant that there’s a deal to be had on enhanced Obamacare subsidies her party is pressing for. She also noted that the Senate Appropriations Committee has made good headway on bipartisan funding bills. A shutdown — especially the kind Vought is threatening — could all but destroy the prospects for a long-term funding deal.

The OMB threat, however, helps explain why many Democrats have cast doubt on the viability of a bipartisan deal on FY2026 appropriations that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pushing for. These Democrats note that Vought has shown he’ll ignore cross-party agreements anyway.

Happening today. Jeffries will be our guest on Fly Out Day. What a time to have the top House Democrat at the Punchbowl News Townhouse.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Laura Weiss

OCTOBER EVENTS

Join Punchbowl News for a conversation with Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) on Thursday, Oct. 9, at 9 a.m. ET. We’ll discuss the news of the day, 5G and spectrum policy. Save your spot today!

DEFENSE DOLLARS

No pushback from DoD yet as shutdown looms

A common ritual during the increasingly regular government shutdown fights is for the individual military branches to write to lawmakers warning how a funding lapse would threaten national defense.

That practice may not hold this time around.

With less than a week before the Sept. 30 funding deadline, the individual heads of the military branches have yet to send correspondence to lawmakers about the impact of a shutdown, two people familiar with the matter said.

The Office of the Secretary of Defense is preparing a document, according to a person familiar with the matter. But it’s not clear if a final version will be sent to the Hill. Overall, there isn’t a lot of urgency among military leaders to sound the alarm about the repercussions of a shutdown.

This approach stands in contrast to recent years. In late 2023, for example, the secretary of defense, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force all penned letters to top Senate appropriators before Congress passed its so-called “laddered” stopgap funding bill to avoid a shutdown. They warned that a year-long continuing resolution would delay the development of certain weapon systems, impede some military construction projects and jeopardize readiness.

The silence from military leaders is another indication of how the Trump administration appears to be handling the preparations for a shutdown differently than in the past. As we detailed above, the OMB has drafted a memo directing federal agencies to prepare plans for laying off a raft of employees if the government isn’t funded beyond this month.

The reconciliation factor. The lack of engagement from military leaders with the Hill on a potential shutdown comes after Congress recently made sure to fill the Pentagon’s coffers.

The Defense Department made out well in the Republican reconciliation package and under the current full-year stopgap spending plan enacted earlier this year. Both those bills have raised questions within the military about the necessity of sending out the usual missives if Congress will ultimately put more money toward national security anyway, a person familiar with the situation indicated.

— Briana Reilly

REDISTRICTING WARS

Ohio Republicans slow-walk redistricting

Ohio is one of the few states that is actually required to do a mid-decade redistricting for 2026. But that mandate hasn’t made the process easy.

Redistricting in the state is in limbo as Republicans trudge through a convoluted constitutional process to secure a new map and weigh just how aggressive to be in that redraw.

Per the state’s constitution, Ohio’s congressional map is only good for two cycles if the redistricting commission passes it without bipartisan support. So lawmakers must draw again ahead of 2026.

Ohio’s 15-member delegation consists of 10 Republicans and five Democrats. In 2022, Republicans initially tried to push through a more favorable map only to be stymied by the Ohio Supreme Court. But the court has become more conservative since that ruling, leaving the GOP optimistic about getting a redrawn map in place for the midterms.

Ohio Republicans are very likely to try to draw out Democratic Reps. Emilia Sykes, in the Akron area, and Marcy Kaptur, in Toledo. The question is whether or not they’ll also target Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Cincinnati, per sources close to the process.

The timeline. Ohio Republicans have already indicated that they will blow past the Sept. 30 deadline to draw a map.

Once that happens, a bipartisan commission will attempt to draw a map that passes with support from both Democratic and Republican commissioners. In today’s hyperpartisan climate, no one believes this can happen. If the commission misses the Oct. 31 deadline, the legislature gets another go.

This time, the legislature can pass a map with a simple majority, but they have to follow some additional guidelines concerning things like compactness and county splits. Their deadline is Nov. 30, and that’s the one that really matters.

– Ally Mutnick

THE CAMPAIGN

We have a bunch of campaign news for you today.

Government funding. Protect Our Care is running a nationwide $100,000 ad campaign that says congressional Republicans are “demanding massive health care cuts or they’ll shut down the government.” The ad buy is an initial marker of how the government funding standoff is playing out on the airwaves. The ads, mainly running on Facebook, target four senators and 10 House members.

South Dakota. The Republican Main Street Partnership is launching a $100,000 ad buy to boost Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), the former Main Street chair, in his gubernatorial campaign. The ad praises Johnson for working to pass the GOP reconciliation bill.

Wisconsin. Rep. Tom Tiffany’s (R-Wis.) gubernatorial campaign is hosting a fundraiser in Milwaukee next month featuring some big names. GOP megadonor Liz Uihlein and former RNC Chair Reince Priebus are among the co-hosts.

Ohio. Some notable GOP political operatives and the telecom company Charter Communications are hosting a fundraiser on Sept. 30 for Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). Among the co-hosts are Garrett Ventry and former NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

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