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THE TOP

Happy Tuesday morning.
Key senators are preparing a major shift in their short-term government funding strategy, leaving aside Ukraine aid but presenting Speaker Kevin McCarthy with a set of new challenges.
Senate leaders and senior appropriators are eyeing passing a clean stopgap spending bill by the end of the week. The measure would fund federal agencies at current levels for another 45 days but would include little or no new cash for Ukraine or disaster relief. The usual caveats apply here. Nothing is final until it’s final, and everything is still in flux.
The White House is pushing the Senate to include 45 days worth of Ukraine aid and some disaster money, according to sources familiar with the talks.
The Senate leadership’s goal is to pass something that McCarthy can reasonably put on the floor to avert an Oct. 1 shutdown. However, this plan would require House Democratic votes for passage. That risks a rebellion from McCarthy’s right flank, which has voiced staunch opposition to a clean CR.
It’s tough to overstate the jam McCarthy would be in here. The Senate’s CR would almost certainly pass with a large bipartisan majority. But putting this measure on the House floor could easily push conservative hardliners into trying to oust McCarthy.
This may look like a lifeline for McCarthy — and, under normal circumstances, it would be. But some in his conference will see putting this proposal on the floor as a betrayal. Others have softened their opposition to a stopgap measure if the bill cuts spending or includes provisions to secure the border. A clean CR will do none of that.
But the big news here is that Congress could be trying to punt the Ukraine fight until at least November, when lawmakers would likely have to enact another CR to buy more time to pass FY2024 appropriations bills.
The Republican Party’s warring factions will have to hash it out on Ukraine eventually. It might not be this time — and won’t be the reason for a shutdown — if the Senate leadership’s current thinking wins out. The Senate’s shift was first reported by our friends Burgess Everett and Daniella Diaz of Politico.
House GOP leaders reacted cautiously on Monday to the Senate’s new CR approach. McCarthy has said publicly that he wouldn’t put any CR on the floor that includes billions of dollars in new Ukraine aid, meaning that if the Senate passed such legislation, it would guarantee a shutdown.
McCarthy and his leadership team face a key procedural vote on Tuesday for a four-bill appropriations package, including the mammoth Defense bill. Senior aides believe Republicans can pass this rule, which would be a welcome development for the GOP leadership after two failed rule votes last week.
McCarthy has said he wants to pass these four spending bills and then vote on a CR later in the week. But the Republican CR that McCarthy wants to move includes spending cuts and a border security bill that’s a non-starter for the Senate and the White House.
If you’re a Ukraine supporter, punting this issue for a month or longer — when the White House is expected to request a full-year supplemental package for Ukraine and other priorities — seems, on its face, a risky bet.
That full-year request for Ukraine will obviously be much higher than the White House’s current $24 billion ask. If this amount is so difficult to approve, how could Congress possibly approve even more in a month?
The flip side: Could it actually be easier to pass Ukraine aid in November? That seems to be what Senate leaders are banking on. Approving $24 billion now, and then forcing McCarthy to hold a vote on a much larger package at some other date, would be a tougher sell, they reason.
So it might be better to jam through a massive package that would fund Ukraine through the 2024 presidential election, for example, meaning McCarthy only has to do this once. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has been pushing for this approach.
And there are already several roadblocks for Ukraine funding this time around that would essentially guarantee a shutdown, even a brief one. Chief among them is Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) vow to slow down the process for any CR that includes Ukraine aid. The result of this could be to force Hill leaders to decide between funding the government and funding Ukraine, which would be a no-win situation politically.
However, this still means that Ukraine has no certainty from the United States about its funding priorities for the moment. Remember Biden’s oft-repeated line that the West will be there to help Ukraine for “as long as it takes?” As we wrote in July at the NATO summit, the real answer is “as long as Congress says.”
The White House, meanwhile, said it’s still pushing hard on Ukraine aid. In a statement, an OMB spokesperson said the Biden administration “continues to work with members of both parties in the Senate and the House to secure supplemental funding as part of any continuing resolution.”
An administration official noted that the White House’s $24 billion request covered a three-month period through the end of 2023, and the CRs under consideration by Congress are obviously shorter than that.
— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
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JERSEY VIEW
Kim says he’s ‘committed’ to Senate run for Menendez seat
Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) says he’ll follow through with his primary challenge to indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, even if the veteran New Jersey senator eventually steps down or other candidates enter the race.
Kim, who announced his intent to take on Menendez over the weekend, said his decision is one that “came from the heart” and he plans to keep running, even if the state of the race shifts.
“I’ve made my announcement that I’m not seeking reelection in the House, and [Menendez] has now twice said that he’s not going anywhere,” Kim told us in an interview. “I feel committed to do this and I’m going to see it through.”
There are now several potential candidates eyeing Kim’s open House seat.
Kim’s decision comes after Menendez was indicted on bribery and corruption charges on Friday. Menendez, who has been in the Senate since 2006, has since stepped aside from his position as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Menendez proclaimed that he would eventually be exonerated. The senator, though, didn’t directly address whether he’s going to seek reelection next year.
“I firmly believe that when all the facts are presented, not only will I be exonerated, but I still will be New Jersey’s senior senator,” Menendez said.
The 69-year-old Menendez, his wife Nadine, and three other alleged co-conspirators will be arraigned in federal court in New York City on Wednesday.
Kim told us he didn’t tune into Menendez’s press conference, but denounced the senator’s refusal to step down. Kim, along with several other members of the New Jersey House delegation and Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, have called on Menendez to resign. Just three Democratic senators — John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Peter Welch of Vermont and Sherrod Brown of Ohio — have said so far that Menendez should resign.
“The senator’s immediate response was to just come back at us and then just say ‘I’m not going anywhere,’” the 41-year-old Kim said. “Honestly, it was that line that bothered me so much. It felt like he was thinking that he owns that seat.”
Kim also slammed Menendez for claiming he was being targeted because of his ethnicity. Menendez was once the highest ranking Latino in Congress and is the son of Cuban immigrants.
“I guess he doesn’t have a whole lot of material to push back on,” Kim said of Menendez. “The issues about race and accusations that he was targeted [because of race] are absolutely ridiculous.”
Kim noted that he is the son of Korean immigrants and the first Asian American from New Jersey to be elected to federal office. The former Rhodes Scholar and State Department, Pentagon and White House aide was first elected to the House in 2018.
Keep in mind, other New Jersey Democrats including Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer have also been floated as potential successors to Menendez. Those two have also been floated as future gubernatorial candidates in 2025.
Sherrill and Gottheimer have both called on Menendez to resign but haven’t indicated any plans related to their own political futures. Gottheimer is holding a fundraiser for Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), the senator’s son. The younger Menendez reaffirmed his intention to seek reelection despite his father’s indictment.
— Mica Soellner
📅
What we’re watching
Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have an oversight hearing with SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The House Agriculture Committee will have a hearing about foreign ownership of U.S. agriculture. The Senate Intelligence Committee will have an open hearing on “China’s malign influence operations in the United States.” The Senate Rules Committee will have a hearing on AI and elections.
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a markup on the Safer Banking Act. The House Ways and Means Committee will meet behind closed doors related to the Hunter Biden whistleblower investigation.
Thursday: The House Oversight Committee will have a hearing on the basis for an impeachment inquiry of President Joe Biden.
— Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
New: The NRCC has posted a new video focusing on the migrant situation playing out in New York City. Republicans are defending a number of vulnerable incumbents in New York State and are bashing Democrats for the huge influx of tens of thousands of asylum seekers in the city. Mayor Eric Adams has warned that the migrant flow, if unchecked, “will destroy New York City.”
“Ignoring the border crisis won’t solve New York’s migrant crisis, despite Hakeem Jeffries’ desperate wishes,” NRCC National Press Secretary Will Reinert said in a statement.
This is a similar playbook to 2022, when Republicans blasted New York Democrats on the issues of crime and public safety, which helped made big gains in the state’s suburbs.
— Max Cohen
THE MONEY GAME
Boehner raising money for Pfluger
Former Speaker John Boehner is holding a fundraiser tonight for Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas).
Boehner and Pfluger never served together, of course. Pfluger was only elected in 2020. But the Texas Republican has emerged as an ally for the House GOP leadership and is toward the top of the NRCC’s fundraising list.

— Jake Sherman
MOMENTS
All times eastern
9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
9:55 a.m.: Biden will leave for Andrews, where he will fly to Detroit. Karine Jean-Pierre will gaggle on Air Force One.
Noon: Biden will join the UAW’s picket line.
2:35 p.m.: Biden will fly to California.
6:55 p.m.: Biden will land at Moffett Federal Field in Mountain View, Calif.
9:30 p.m.: Biden will fundraise in Atherton, Calif.
10:35 p.m.: Biden will leave Atherton for San Francisco.
10:55 p.m.: Biden will arrive at Crissy Airfield in San Francisco.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “Trump Tells Gun Store He’d Like to Buy a Glock, Raising Legal Questions,” by Maggie Haberman and Alan Feuer |
WaPo
→ | “Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom to debate in November, Fox News says,” by Anumita Kaur and Kim Bellware |
Bloomberg
→ | “Fed’s Kashkari Says He Expects One More Rate Hike This Year,” by Catarina Saraiva |
→ | “Israel Says its Citizens Will Soon Enter US Without a Visa,” by Ethan Bronner |
WSJ
→ | “Americans Finally Start to Feel the Sting From the Fed’s Rate Hikes,” by Rachel Louise Ensign |
AP
→ | “As Gen. Milley steps down as chairman, his work on Ukraine is just one part of a complicated legacy,” by Lolita C. Baldor in Oslo, Norway |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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Check out our fourth feature focused on AI and economic investment with Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).