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September 27, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning. Election Day is six weeks from today.
The Senate is back today. The House returns tomorrow. We’ll have more below on the stopgap funding bill to keep the federal government open beyond Friday.
But first some news: House Democrats’ new bill to ban stock trading will be expansive, applying to members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, senior aides, federal judges including the Supreme Court, and senior executive branch officials, according to sources involved in the discussions.
Lawmakers, judges and all other government officials covered by the ban will have to choose between divesting their investment portfolios or putting their assets in a qualified blind trust. Members of the judicial branch will have to file more detailed financial disclosures, as we reported was under consideration.
The House is supposed to vote on the Democratic measure this week. But the text hasn’t been released yet. And we’re told there are serious concerns within leadership ranks about the proposal.
The House leadership doesn’t currently have the votes to pass the bill given the number of rank-and-file Democrats who are “actively opposed,” according to one source – especially in the face of what looks like solid GOP opposition. A lot could change between now and later this week, but that’s where things stand at this moment.
So there’s a question of whether this bill even comes to the floor. Several senior Democratic aides told us they’re skeptical the legislation will be voted upon during a three-day workweek right at the end of the fiscal year.
Remember, the House doesn’t come in until Wednesday due to Rosh Hashanah. And the chamber’s most important task will be keeping the federal government funded beyond Sept. 30.
However, the current plan is to bring the STOCK Act to the Rules Committee whenever the panel meets to consider the continuing resolution. Members are set to leave town on Friday until Nov. 14. Which makes this the last chance for the STOCK Act to be considered before the election.
Pelosi – and everyone around her – has said several times recently that the House would vote on legislation to tighten trading rules by the end of September. Republicans will surely lambaste Democrats if they adjourned for the election without voting on the measure.
There’s also a question of whether the legislation is even finished. As we mentioned above, the text has yet to be released. And the negotiations around this complex bill have been kept within a very tight circle of Democratic lawmakers and aides led by House Administration Committee Chair Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), much to the frustration of members in both parties.
Rep. Rodney Davis (Ill.), the top Republican on the House Administration panel, blasted Lofgren and Pelosi earlier this month for failing to move the bill through regular order and instead bringing it straight to the floor without any public input.
Davis called the bill “highly partisan” and took a shot at Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, who has come under scrutiny for his stock-trading activity.
Lofgren sent out a lengthy “Dear Colleague” last week laying out the parameters of the Democratic legislation. Beyond offering some details on who is covered, Lofgren declared that under the new proposal, senior government officials would be barred from “trading stock or holding investments in securities, commodities, futures, cryptocurrency, and other similar investments and from shorting stocks.”
Current and incoming public officials would be required to “divest these types of holding or place them in a qualified blind trust.” They can invest in “diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, widely held investment funds,” as well as government bonds, notes or bills. All of these holdings would still be publicly disclosed and any transactions reported as required.
Financial disclosure reports would include more information, especially on spousal assets. In addition, these reports would be filed electronically across all three branches of government. Penalties for failing to file disclosure reports would be strengthened. And ethics offices would be required to file reports on “compliance by filers under their supervision.”
– Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan
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GOVERNMENT FUNDING
CR released, but Senate first has to decide on Manchin permitting plan
House and Senate appropriators late Monday night unveiled a short-term government funding bill to keep federal agencies open until Dec. 16. But senators must first decide the fate of a permitting reform proposal by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) before they pass the continuing resolution.
Here’s the text of the CR. And here’s a section-by-section breakdown of the bill from the House Appropriations Committee.
The 237-page funding package includes $12.3 billion in economic and military support for Ukraine; $1 billion for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP); $2.5 billion in funding for New Mexico to recover from the Hermit’s Peak/Calf Canyon fire in April; $2 billion in additional disaster aid; $20 million for water infrastructure in Jackson, Miss.; and a five-year reauthorization of FDA user fees, among other high-profile provisions.
The Pentagon will be allowed to shift $3 billion to the State Department to support Afghan resettlement programs, while the FBI gets another $15 million to continue vetting those same refugees.
One line item of special note: “$35 million to prepare for and respond to potential nuclear and radiological incidents in Ukraine.”
Manchin’s permitting plan – the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022 – is included in the text of the funding package. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer promised Manchin he’d get a vote on the proposal in return for the West Virginia Democrat’s support for the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Manchin proposal will dramatically reduce the length of time required to complete federal environmental reviews. Manchin says this would bring the United States in line with other advanced countries and is needed to help provide the energy resources American companies require to compete globally.
Manchin’s is also seeking to authorize the immediate approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a controversial multi-billion dollar project to bring natural gas from West Virginia to southern Virginia. Federal agencies would have 30 days to issue the necessary permits for the pipeline if Manchin’s proposal is enacted, and all court cases challenging the pipeline would be consolidated in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.
In order to move forward on the CR, the Senate will have to invoke cloture tonight on the legislative vehicle for the funding package. A number of senior Senate Republicans will vote no because they’re opposed to Manchin’s permitting plan, preferring an alternative by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) instead.
“We have made significant progress toward a Continuing Resolution that is as clean as possible,” Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said last night. “But, if the Democrats insist on including permitting reform, I will oppose it.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is also opposed, as are some other progressive Democrats, who are concerned that enacting Manchin’s initiative will lead to a dramatic expansion in oil and natural gas drilling.
GOP and Democratic senators privately say that Manchin doesn’t have the 60 votes needed to get cloture, despite his lobbying blitz over the last week.
Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi face a choice if cloture isn’t invoked. The House could move quickly to pass a CR without the Manchin proposal, possibly as soon as Wednesday night. That would give the Senate time to work through the measure before the Sept. 30 deadline.
Or Schumer could seek a time agreement to move a revised CR through the Senate first. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell – an appropriator himself – doesn’t like shutdowns, so a deal is likely. The Senate would vote first, with the House voting on the CR by Friday under that scenario.
If cloture is invoked, then Congress would need to pass a “bridge” funding bill to give itself a few more days to resolve its differences over the CR. The House is unlikely to back the Manchin proposal, so there would have to be some bicameral compromise.
Either way, today’s 5:30 p.m. Senate cloture vote is the first step in resolving the CR endgame. Lawmakers want to head home to campaign for reelection as soon as possible.
— John Bresnahan
FIXING ELECTIONS
The Collins-Manchin electoral reform bill set to move ahead
The Senate Rules Committee has a markup scheduled for this afternoon on the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act. This is a bipartisan bill drafted by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
The legislation would reform the 1887 Electoral Count Act to avoid a repeat of what happened following the 2020 presidential election. The role of the vice president would be “ministerial” only, without any authority to reject a state’s election results. And the threshold for objecting to a state’s results would be raised to one-fifth of members and senators. Currently, only one member and one senator are required to raise a formal objection to any state results.
There are a total of 22 senators co-sponsoring the measure – 11 Democrats and 11 Republicans – which Collins and Manchin says shows broad bipartisan support.
A source close to the negotiations said “a modest package of amendments” have been agreed to by Manchin, Collins and Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the chair and ranking member on Rules.
Final action on this legislation is going to have to wait for the lame-duck session. The House has its own bill offered by Reps. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), members of the Jan. 6 select committee. There are some significant differences between the two bills, although they’re not impossible to overcome. The Senate – split 50-50 – is going to insist on its own measure, so we’ll see how House leaders respond following the midterm elections.
– John Bresnahan
LEADER LOOK
Buddy Carter launches run for top GOP post on Budget Committee
Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia is running to be the top Republican on the House Budget Committee next Congress. Carter, first elected to Congress in 2014, granted Punchbowl News the first sit-down interview of his run.
Carter currently serves as the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s designee to the Budget Committee. Check out what Carter said about his priorities for the Budget panel and why he’s the best member for the job.
| → | Carter said Congress must make Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid “more sustainable.” Republicans have long eyed reform to these hugely popular entitlement programs. But any talk of revamping them is normally politically perilous. |
Here’s Carter on the need for Social Security reform:
| → | Carter said one of his top priorities on the Budget Committee would be to attempt to rein in the national debt. |
“Right now, we got $31 trillion in debt. That is intergenerational theft,” Carter said. “That is unfair for our generation to leave that to future generations. We’ve got to do something about it right now.”
Carter also committed to passing a balanced budget next fiscal year if Republicans are in the majority.
| → | A major issue facing Congress is the looming fight over raising the debt limit to avoid a possible default. Carter wouldn’t commit to raising the debt limit if Republicans took back Congress. Here’s his thinking: |
| → | Carter said his experience in the private sector and in government makes him uniquely suited for a lead role on the Budget Committee – especially being the chair if Republicans win. |
Reps. Lloyd Smucker (Pa.) and Jodey Arrington (Texas) are also eyeing the top slot on Budget.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY META
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | The DCCC spent $663,553 on furniture last month, according to FEC records. This is a stunning sum. The DCCC has a new office, and they said the money came from a fund that cannot be used for political efforts. |
| → | The DCCC is also airing four new ads focusing on abortion rights in key Midwestern swing districts. Two spots take aim at Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-Mich.) GOP opponent Paul Junge for saying Roe v. Wade granted women “made-up rights.” |
Another ad criticizes Tyler Kistner, Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) Republican opponent, for being an “extremist” on abortion rights. And the DCCC is also highlighting how Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) challenger, Republican Tom Barrett, altered his campaign website to remove his views on abortion.
| → | Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) is airing a new ad touting her work to stop the distribution and sale of fentanyl, including on social media apps such as Snapchat. The ad features a woman whose son died after purchasing a pill laced with fentanyl off of Snapchat. |
McMorris Rodgers told us earlier this month that tech oversight – particularly when it comes to apps like Snapchat and TikTok – will be one of her top priorities if she becomes Energy and Commerce Committee chair next Congress.
| → | New York Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is launching a six-figure TV and digital ad buy touting his experience as a West Point graduate. Ryan won an upset special election last month with a campaign centered around abortion access and is now running in a competitive district for a full term next year. |
In this new ad, Ryan compares his time at West Point to his nascent congressional career.
“Yes, no, no excuse,” Ryan says were the “only answers for a new cadet.”
“It’s a good lesson for a new congressman too. Yes, I’m fighting to ease our economic burden. No, I’ll never let politicians take away a woman’s right to choose. And there’s absolutely no excuse for our kids being killed by the same weapons I carried in combat.”
Watch the full ad here.
— Heather Caygle, Jake Sherman and Max Cohen
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At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.