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September 28, 2022
Presented by Apollo Global Management
Learn how Apollo is rethinking retirement income to last the modern lifespan. Think It New.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.). decision Tuesday to drop his permitting reform proposal from the government funding bill was a defeat for the West Virginia Democrat, who has enjoyed outsized sway in the chamber throughout the 117th Congress. It’s a victory for Senate Republicans, many of whom were looking to beat Manchin back after he agreed to billions of dollars in spending in the Inflation Reduction Act. And it’s a win for progressives, who were wary of voting for some legislation that would allow new oil and natural gas drilling.
But more importantly, it’s a sign that Congress wants to skip a round of crisis governing ahead of Friday’s deadline to fund the federal government and avoid a shutdown.
The Senate is moving forward on clearing a short-term funding bill to keep federal agencies open until Dec. 16. It will also provide more than $12 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine, billions in disaster aid, and reauthorize FDA user fees for five years, among a host of other key provisions.
Now technically, the Senate isn’t yet debating the continuing resolution to fund federal agencies. It’s still in post-cloture time on the motion to proceed to the legislative vehicle for the CR. Got that? Under normal circumstances, there could be two more cloture votes before the CR is cleared, meaning this bill wouldn’t be finished until next week. Under normal circumstances.
Yet no one wants a government shutdown, it’s not in either side’s interests. So this will all be worked out quickly. We’ll get an idea after today’s party lunches whether Republicans want to offer amendments, and if so, how many and on what issues. Then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will work out a time agreement to complete action on the package – with consent from their colleagues – and votes will be scheduled.
There’s a chance – slim, but it’s possible – that the Senate could finish up on the CR today. Thursday is more likely. But don’t underestimate the possibility of “Senate magic” here. With no other pending business to keep senators in town, passing the government funding bill is all that’s on the agenda. Senators can go home after they’re done with the CR.
Yet we still think Thursday is when it will all wrap up on the Senate side. So does Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) following Tuesday’s 72-23 cloture vote on the motion to proceed.
“No, it will take a little longer. We’ll get it done this week. This was a good sign,” Leahy said as he left the Capitol on Tuesday night.
House Democrats believe they could possibly finish work on the CR on Thursday, depending on when they get the funding package from the Senate. House GOP leaders are formally opposed to the package, but enough Republicans will vote for it to give Democrats plenty of room for passage.
The only real question for House Democrats – once they finish the CR, which is the top priority for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other leaders – is whether they stick around to vote on the stock trading ban. We have lots more on that below.
| → | One more thing: The Senate is scheduled to return to Washington in mid-October following a week-long recess, and there’s been some chatter that Schumer wants this to happen. Perhaps to take up the annual defense authorization bill, must-pass legislation that has been mentioned as a vehicle for permitting reform. |
But there’s very little appetite among senators in both parties to do so. With control of the Senate up for grabs on Election Day, they’d rather just postpone any action on the NDAA until November’s lame-duck session. We should get some insight into this issue following the party lunches.
– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
OCTOBER EVENTS!
Don’t forget to RSVP for our October events!
Wednesday, Oct. 12 at 9 a.m. ET: Join us online for a one-on-one virtual conversation with Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) about issues facing American workers, including financial security, health care costs, and inflation. RSVP Here.
Monday, Oct. 17 at 10 a.m. ET: Meet us in Miami, or join us on the livestream for our interview with Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R). We’ll be talking to him about issues facing small business owners coming out of the pandemic, during the final installment of our “Road to Recovery” series. RSVP here.
Wednesday, Oct. 19 at 9 a.m. ET: We’ll be sitting down with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) to talk about mobile technology security and app store legislation. RSVP here to join us at Hawk ‘N’ Dove or on the livestream.
STOCK ACT SAGA
STOCK Act faces uncertain future
House Democratic leaders are barreling ahead as if they’re going to put their bill banning lawmakers and senior aides from stock trading on the floor this week. But privately, there are serious concerns with the proposal and whether it could pass.
First of all, here’s the bill. It was released late Tuesday night. The legislation applies to lawmakers, spouses, dependent children, the president, vice president, political appointees, “judicial officers,” Federal Reserve governors and presidents and vice presidents of Federal Reserve banks.
The Democratic package requires these public officials – upon entering government service – to either divest their financial investments, liquidate them, donate to a charitable organization or put these assets in a qualified blind trust.
There are a number of exemptions. These elected and appointed officials and their spouses can own mutual funds, ETFs, Treasury bills, government bonds, Thrift Savings Plans and equity in small businesses that don’t “present a conflict of interest.” There will be some wrangling over that small business language if this measure ever gets passed into law. Every corner of the economy presents potential conflicts for members of Congress and senators.
Right now, we think it’s unlikely the bill comes up for a vote before the House leaves town for the midterm elections.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is opposed to the bill, as we scooped Tuesday. But he’s far from alone.
Republicans are angry at being left out of the drafting process, so they’re unlikely to help Democrats pass this bill. And several other Democrats, including some Frontliners, don’t want to vote on the proposal. Remember, Democrats only have a four-vote margin.
We caught up with Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy of Florida – who is waiting out Hurricane Ian from her Orlando-area district – to discuss Democratic opposition. Murphy is a chief deputy whip and a retiring Frontliner.
“Given the kind of nebulous outlines of the proposals, there’s enough members that are uncomfortable that we wouldn’t have the votes to carry it on the floor,” Murphy told us.
There are a variety of reasons why Democrats could vote no. Some of them are angry about the process. They’re being asked to support an extremely complicated bill with little time to review the actual text. House Administration Committee Chair Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) has been in charge of drafting the bill.
Other Democrats don’t like some of the underlying provisions in the bill. Murphy signaled she would vote against the bill if it came to the floor this week.
“It’s important to be thoughtful and provide people with plenty of time to understand the consequences of what the proposed legislation would be,” Murphy said.
Murphy also gave a shout-out to Hoyer, who is the leadership member closest to the Frontliners.
“As always, vulnerable members are grateful to Mr. Hoyer for standing up and reflecting their concerns and taking the public stance for positions that they share with him privately,” Murphy added.
— Heather Caygle
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
| → | Ascend Learning has signed up the Nickles Group to lobby on “issues concerning nursing shortages and the nursing pipeline.” |
– Jake Sherman
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THE CAMPAIGN
| → | Lisa Scheller, the Republican challenging Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), is out with an ad pushing back on claims Scheller shipped jobs overseas. |
“[Lisa] creates good paying jobs here in Pa,” Herb Whildin, a former worker at Scheller’s business, Silberline Manufacturing Co., says in the ad. “And Susan Wild? She voted for the Biden-Pelosi tax hikes that will send more jobs to China.”
— Max Cohen
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Presented by Apollo Global Management
Learn how Apollo is rethinking retirement income to last the modern lifespan. Think It New.