BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

We’re here! … 

Hi! We thought we’d send you a note tonight ahead of our launch tomorrow. First of all, thanks for joining the Punchbowl mix. We — Bres, Jake, Anna and Rachel — have been floored by the support, and we’re so happy to have you as a member of the Punchbowl community. 

This is not the first edition — that will come tomorrow morning, when we’ll tell you a bit more about what to expect from us and we unveil our brand new newsletter.

… And here’s what we’re up to

NYT’s Ben Smith has a bit on our plans: Punchbowl “promises a scoop-driven, just-the-facts-ma’am operation founded by three defectors from the Washington publication Politico.  … [Punchbowl is] betting that there’s a large, paying audience of readers more interested in how power works in America than in journalists’ views on how it ought to work. … 

“‘They’ll be an instant must-read,’ said Jim VandeHei, who took a similar path when he left Politico to start Axios. He then not-so-subtly added the friendly suggestion that Punchbowl stay out of his lane. ‘I think it’ll be the most successful independent newsletter created in 2021 if they stay small and minimalist and if they focus tightly on Capitol Hill.’ …  

“The new publication will center on three daily newsletters, one free and two for subscribers, as well as a daily podcast produced with Cadence 13 and conference calls and virtual events for subscribers. Ms. Palmer, who covered lobbying and influence before co-writing Playbook, will be the chief executive. Their fourth co-founder — and only other employee — is Rachel Schindler, who left Facebook’s news team to run operations for the new company. … 

“Punchbowl appears likely to stay small for now, though the centrality of Capitol Hill to Mr. Biden’s early agenda will give it an outsize importance in 2021. They’ve raised only $1 million, a fraction of the start-up costs of Axios or Politico. But the man who led that investment round is one of the country’s best-connected media bankers, Aryeh Bourkoff, who said his Kindred Media had invested because his firm and its partners wanted ‘more of a lens into’ politics.”

Biden’s complex Washington begins

Nancy Pelosi’s tight-as-a-tick victory in the speaker’s race today is the most vivid reminder of the challenges of the looming Joe Biden era. The leadership will be under tremendous pressure with little room to maneuver.

The evidence is everywhere: Pelosi won by a tight 216-209 margin, with five House Democrats voting present or for someone else. Her majority is minuscule — the smallest Democratic majority in eons — which means that on any issue, she can only lose a handful of seats before having to ask Kevin McCarthy’s House Republican Conference for support. That will rarely happen.

Pelosi will have Biden in the White House, which should make it easier for her to keep restive House Democrats in line. But questions abound about whether this is her last term as speaker, and if Democrats can keep their majority in 2022 — both dynamics that will have outsized impact on governing. The memory of the Democratic wipeout in 2010 — a midterm body blow that sidelined Obama’s presidency — is never far from mind for House Democrats

In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has 12 Republicans publicly defying him, siding with President Donald Trump in his quixotic and bizarre quest to challenge the November election results. McConnell pleaded with Republicans to avoid this vote, warning them it would endanger their fellow Republicans up in 2022. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) didn’t seem to care too much about that, and he launched the challenge to the results. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and another 10 Senate Republicans joined the kamikaze mission, which will begin Wednesday. 

The question for both of these leaders is this: is the dissent momentary, or does it portend larger changes for the power dynamics in Washington in the Biden era.

Also, in the Capitol on Sunday, there was a palpable sense among Republicans that the Jan. 6 rally that Trump is promoting could lead to a dangerous climate on the streets of Washington. “We know what will happen inside this building, we just don’t know what will happen outside,” a top House Republican said.

Dems who took a pass on Pelosi

Rep. Jared Golden of Maine — a Democrat who represents a tight district — voted for Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who is also a veteran. Golden voted for Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) in 2019, so this is not unexpected.

Rep. Connor Lamb of Pennsylvania voted for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Lamb represents a red central Pennsylvania district. Lamb voted for former Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.) in 2019, so also not unexpected.

Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) all voted present. Team Pelosi preferred a present vote to voting for another person. Spanberger and Sherrill voted for Bustos last time, while Slotkin voted present. The trio of junior Democrats are part of what’s referred to as ‘National Security Dems’  — lawmakers who were in the military or worked for national security agencies. They all came to Congress in 2018.

Notable quotable

Pelosi, this evening to the House chamber: "Scripture tells us that to everything, there is a season: a time for every purpose under the heavens; a time to build, a time to sow, a time to heal. Now is a time for our nation to heal."