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⚡Punchbowl News Special Edition: Introducing The Legislative Outlook
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PRESENTED BY BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN Happy Wednesday from your friends at Punchbowl News — Bres, Jake, Anna, Christian and Max. Welcome to our first Legislative Outlook, a periodical special edition that will dig a bit deeper on what to expect from Washington, both in the short and long term. This is essentially us emptying our notebooks, compiling much of what we hear in the Capitol into one place at one time. It’s our stepback and your cheat sheet. As always, please email us, DM us, call us or get in touch some way to tell us what you think, what you want, what you like and what you don’t. We look forward to bringing you more of this content in the future. THE LANDSCAPE As we’ve been writing for you in Punchbowl News AM, we’re in the middle of the busiest legislative period in years. September has a stunning number of fiscal and legislative deadlines. The biggest of these, of course, is the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. This issue has become caught up in the debt-limit debate as Democrats plan to attach a debt-limit increase to a short-term funding bill. Republicans have vowed to oppose this move, raising the risk for the two sides to blunder into a government shutdown or debt crisis. Suddenly, the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation package and the $1 trillion bipartisan Senate infrastructure bill — long the top priority in D.C. — are taking a back seat to the meat and potatoes of governing. It now seems at least somewhat likely that the “Build Back Better” agenda — made up of infrastructure and social safety net measures proposed by President Joe Biden — could be delayed until later this fall. One theory among Democrats is that Republicans will cave — if not initially, then after a brief government shutdown or debt default scare during which the Democrats win the political argument that the GOP is an irresponsible partner in governing. Good luck getting someone to say that on the record, but it’s the reality we hear privately in the Capitol. The politics are quite interesting here. There’s a strain of thought in Republican circles that a government shutdown and the subsequent legislative crisis would slow the passage of the Democratic agenda, and therefore isn’t such a bad outcome. The GOP also wants to punish Democrats for passing on an opportunity to move the debt-limit increase on their own. It could’ve been included in the reconciliation package, meaning Democrats pass it on their own. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Democrats about this in July, yet Democrats decided to move ahead anyway. We spoke to McConnell Tuesday about all of this and he said there’s no way that he’ll vote for a debt limit increase. He expects to be able to hold all his Senate Republicans to this line.
So where does this all leave reconciliation and the Biden agenda? There are so many complicating factors at the moment, but here are the main plot lines we’re watching:
At this point, based on weeks of reporting about this standoff, we can’t confidently tell you that anyone has a good idea about how this will all play out. We do know it’s going to take weeks, if not months, to finish. PRESENTED BY CLIMATE POWER Americans want solutions to the climate crisis. It’s time for Congress to pass the Build Back Better Act. By creating tax incentives for clean energy, new technologies and manufacturing, we can: – Lower utility costs Congress has a choice: Aggressively take on climate change by making real investments in clean energy, or let utility bills grow and extreme weather worsen. This plan from President Biden and Democrats in Congress is a win for everyday American families when they could really use one. According to a recent Data for Progress poll, 3 in 4 voters support this legislation and say the climate, clean energy, and environmental justice components are essential. Congress, let’s get it done. JOIN THE PUNCHBOWL NEWS PREMIUM COMMUNITY Become a premium member of Punchbowl News for more in-depth coverage like this on the inner workings of Washington, D.C. Get access to exclusive content, including our Brown Bag Lunch series with the Punchbowl News founders, Punchbowl News Midday & PM, The Canvass, and more! Subscribe today. THE SCHEDULE STAKES FOR LEADERS → Nancy Pelosi: Nancy Pelosi has suggested this would be her last term atop the House — but she hasn’t made anything official yet. And Pelosi isn’t going to relegate herself to “lame duck” status. But with her razor-thin majority in real danger heading into 2022, Pelosi needs a big win on reconciliation to help buttress her vulnerable members. She’s not leading the charge to confront Republicans on the debt limit, but rather is working to keep infrastructure and reconciliation on track — to the extent that’s possible. As we reported earlier this week, Pelosi has been refereeing fights between members of the Energy and Commerce Committee over prescription drug policy. Previously, Pelosi had to wrangle moderates who were threatening to slow down action on the entire reconciliation package. Due in part to her overwhelming influence in the caucus, all the problems in the caucus bubble up to the speaker level. The 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be quite bumpy for the Democratic majority, and Pelosi is working feverishly to give her party something she considers transformational to run on. If you ask Pelosi whether she thinks her party will keep control of the chamber, the 81-year-old California Democrat says with gusto that she has no doubt that her majority will hold on next year. → Kevin McCarthy: If there’s one thing political pundits seem to agree on this cycle, it’s this — House Republicans will win the majority in Nov. 2022. That will make Kevin McCarthy the odds on favorite to become the 55th speaker of the House. McCarthy’s goal the next several months is to brand the Democrats $3.5 trillion reconciliation package as a prime example of one-party control gone wild. Expect that the McCarthy-led House GOP Conference will focus on the spending in the package — and not as much on taxes. Republicans tell us they believe the spending argument is more effective than running against an increase in the corporate tax rate, which is broadly popular with the American public. GOP insiders tell us McCarthy has a simple political argument to make right now — Democrats are spending too much and taxing too much. But House Republicans have shown an uncanny ability to complicate straightforward political tasks, so don’t underestimate their ability to screw this up. McCarthy has been raising piles of money, something he needs to do to keep the GOP afloat. He is the party’s cash cow. Much of his 2022 will be focused on keeping the party coffers full, and helping usher candidates to Election Day. If House Republicans do, the personal stakes will then become incredibly high for McCarthy. He’ll need to find a majority of those present and voting on the first day of the 118th Congress to back him as the speaker, a goal that’s eluded him for the last half-dozen years. One big wild card for McCarthy — Donald Trump. McCarthy needs Trump to be speaker, but Trump doesn’t necessarily need McCarthy. The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Bob Costa’s new book on Trump, “Peril,” reported this is Trump’s thinking on McCarthy:
McCarthy’s office declined to comment on this. → Chuck Schumer: Schumer has as much at stake here as anyone. Schumer, Pelosi and the White House left the debt limit out of the reconciliation package, giving Democrats a treacherous path to raising the borrowing cap and keeping the federal government open past Sept. 30. Schumer is trying to win an intellectual argument with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — that Republicans should vote to lift the debt limit. It’s a debate that McConnell is completely uninterested in (see above). The worst-case scenario here for Schumer is that the reconciliation, infrastructure, government funding and debt limit all get piled up at the end of 2021. That would be a “cliff” of epic proportions where the political stakes would be incredibly high. The absolute nightmare case for Schumer is that the reconciliation package falls apart, the bipartisan infrastructure bill gets through and the party faces a legislative crisis. Schumer has two big jobs as Democratic leader: 1) Trying to keep his moderates and progressives from warring with each other; and 2) protecting his vulnerable senators up in 2022. So far, he’s done pretty well. But the next couple of months will be his toughest test yet. → Mitch McConnell: McConnell’s working theory these days is that pretty much everything is Schumer’s problem. When it suits him, McConnell reminds reporters that he is the leader of a 50-seat Republican minority, so he should have his say. At other times, McConnell says that Democrats control the Senate, so they should be responsible for raising the debt limit, keeping the government open, investigating the Biden administration or basically anything involving governing. McConnell plays bare knuckle politics — there’s no other way to explain it. Yes, he voted for the bipartisan infrastructure package. But here we are in mid-September, and he’s pushing for a “clean” stopgap spending bill and is intent on holding all 49 other Republicans against a debt ceiling increase. If the government shuts down or the debt ceiling is breached, Democrats will do everything possible to hold McConnell politically accountable. But McConnell’s retort is that his party controls nothing in D.C., so how on earth can he be held to account? We’ve said this before, but McConnell’s working hypothesis about power is this: “Beat me if you can.” This approach seems to work for him. PRESENTED BY CLIMATE POWER If Congress gets it right, the Build Back Better Act will create jobs, lower costs, and tackle climate change. Here’s what must be included to get it right: 1. Clean Energy Tax Credits This is our moment. We need to get it right. ISSUES THAT AREN’T GOING AWAY You’re going to notice a theme here. There are several high-profile issues that Democrats have been pushing for years that can get through the House, only to be filibustered into nothingness by Senate Republicans. Voting rights: Senate Democrats, led by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), have agreed to a new voting rights proposal, the Freedom to Vote Act. But it’s still not going anywhere. Stop us if you’ve heard this before — Republicans are opposed and are filibustering. Abortion: Abortion has now moved back to the top tier of the national political debate following the recent Supreme Court decision not to block a Texas “fetal heartbeat” law. Pelosi now will have the House vote as early as next week on legislation mandating a national right to have an abortion. If the legislation makes it through the House, as expected, there will be another Senate Republican filibuster. But make no mistake about it — abortion will be a key issue in 2022. Police Reform: In the wake of George Floyd’s murder last year — and the wave of national protests that followed — the two parties have tried to reach a deal on police reform. But despite months of talks between Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), joined by Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), a deal isn’t close. Partisan squabbling and a split between some of the nation’s biggest police organizations have left the negotiations in limbo. And now the legislative calendar is working against them. Guns: Gun violence and murders are up. A majority of Americans favor more gun control, such as universal background checks on gun sales. But Republicans are opposed. So it’s blocked and going nowhere. Talks to come up with a compromise have failed time and time again — and both sides have given up for now. WHERE AMERICANS STAND ON GUNS Source: Gallup WHAT ABOUT THE FILIBUSTER? Changing the filibuster has been the left’s white whale all year. For reasons not entirely clear to us, the left has suggested that altering the 60-vote threshold is not only a possibility, but an immediate likelihood. That’s not the case. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are firmly opposed to changing the 60-vote threshold for legislating. Manchin went as far as to call it “permanent” to us in the Capitol this week. Manchin has previously signaled he would not overturn the 60-vote threshold under any circumstance. There’s a lot of talk about a so-called filibuster “carve out” for civil rights legislation. Senate insiders consider that a long shot. A carve out would be akin to ending the filibuster, they say, and Manchin and Sinema simply will not go for it. AFGHANISTAN One of the newest dynamics on Capitol Hill is the seemingly insatiable thirst to investigate the Biden administration’s botched pullout of Afghanistan. But we noticed something new this week: Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, seems quite eager to slag this White House. Menendez is threatening to subpoena Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin if he doesn’t testify about Afghanistan. Austin claimed he had a scheduling conflict, and then noted he’d be happy to testify in front of the House or Senate Armed Services committees. That’s not going to be enough to satisfy Menendez, who has warned this may impact his thinking on President Joe Biden’s national security nominees. Menendez told us Tuesday that he was planning to open an investigation into what he considers 20 years of successive presidents misleading Congress on the war in Afghanistan. That would be quite a wide-ranging probe with real consequence. It’s important to remember this about Menendez — he was no ally to Barack Obama on foreign policy, and he’s not one to Biden either necessarily. Menendez opposed Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. When Menendez was indicted for bribery in 2015 — he beat the charge, of course — the New Jersey Democrat told donors to his legal-defense fund that one of the reasons it happened was because he opposed Obama on Iran. Menendez will help get Biden’s nominees through his panel, but don’t expect a rubber stamp on the president’s foreign policy initiatives. We also have been told that Republicans are going to use the annual National Defense Authorization Act to try to handcuff the administration from normalizing relations with the Taliban. We expect this to be one of the major fights in the NDAA debate this fall and winter. PRESENTED BY CLIMATE POWER What We Can’t Miss in the Build Back Better Act: President Biden and Democrats in Congress have a plan to fight climate change, lower costs for America’s working families, and create millions of good-paying union jobs. Here’s what must be included in the Build Back Better Act to get it right: 1. Clean Energy Tax Credits will put our clean energy economy into hyperdrive 3 in 4 voters overwhelmingly support passing this legislation, saying climate, clean energy and environmental justice components are essential. This is our moment. We need to get it right. Congress, let’s get it done. |
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