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August 6, 2022
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Happy Saturday evening.
The Senate has cleared a key procedural hurdle to begin debate on the Democrats’ reconciliation bill. The vote on the motion to proceed passed 50-50 after being open for more than two hours, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie.
Harris also cast the tie-breaking vote to proceed to the massive $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan last year, and Senate Democrats may need her on final passage for this bill.
Here’s the text of the Inflation Reduction Act, as submitted by Democrats.
The two sides now have 20 hours equally divided to debate the measure, but each party is expected to yield back a significant portion of their time. There’s still expected to be several hours of debate, however.
After that, a vote-a-rama will begin. Republicans will offer hundreds of amendments during this process, which is likely to last through the night. Dozens of votes are likely. The last three vote-a-ramas averaged 40 votes each. Although there’s no time limit to this process, at some point both sides will exhaust their options for scoring political points. Then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will move toward final passage. That’s expected to happen sometime early Sunday morning.
Here’s what we’re watching out for:
| → | The amendment process. There is no debate during a vote-a-rama, but senators can offer unlimited amendments to this package as long as they’re germane. Nearly all of these will be designed to trip Democrats up, especially vulnerable senators up for reelection. Except, of course, those offered by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who wants to trip everyone up. |
Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) warned that he’d vote against reconciliation if “any hateful immigration amendments” are added.
A big block of Senate Democrats have vowed to oppose every amendment – including Sanders’ proposals. Democratic lawmakers haven’t even needed prodding from leadership here. They realize the huge political stakes of this measure even without Schumer leaning on them.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), the final Democratic hold out who agreed to the bill late Thursday, touted her victories in a statement late Saturday.
| → | Insulin. Senate Democrats inserted provisions in this bill to cap the cost of insulin at $35 per month for diabetics in both Medicare and private insurance plans. Republicans could try to strip this provision from the legislation during the vote-a-rama, but that would be a tricky vote, even for them. |
| → | Timing. Senate leadership seems determined to get this bill done tonight or early tomorrow morning. On the other side of the final passage vote is the August recess. Will senators smell the jet fumes and bow to the reality that this bill is going to pass? |
Stay tuned. We’ll have more tomorrow.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
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