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BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

The House is moving toward impeaching President Donald Trump. We don’t have a time or a date yet, but the leadership is privately planning for a Wednesday vote on the House floor.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to House Democrats Sunday evening that the chamber will also move to pass a bill instructing Vice President Mike Pence and the Cabinet to use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office immediately. If Pence and the Trump administration officials don’t or can’t do it  — and they won’t — Pelosi will move impeachment legislation to the floor and force a vote.

Impeachment is unlikely to lead to Trump’s removal from office in the next nine days. Despite that, Pelosi has little choice but to move forward. Her caucus is furious over Trump’s role in last Wednesday’s attack on the Capitol. She’s held marathon calls with the House Democratic Caucus and her leadership team to discuss the situation and her options. She’s had countless one-on-one conversations. Plus, she’s been flooded with individual messages in the last 24 hours.

Her ideal scenario, however, is still to have Trump leave on his own before Jan. 20. That doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen, so Pelosi is crafting “Plan B” And “Plan C.”

Here are some questions that we’re wondering about:

How many House Republicans will vote for impeachment? Is it three or four? Is it 10 or more? There’s a huge difference there, both in terms of image and political cover. Republicans have so far have played the “Let’s bring America together” card to beat back on impeachment. It’s not much of a hand, but Trump didn’t leave them much.  

When does Pelosi send the articles? Once the House passes impeachment, Pelosi then must send the articles to the Senate for a trial. There’s been some chatter about holding the articles to allow the Democratic Senate to confirm Joe Biden’s Cabinet. Of course, this doesn’t make a lot of sense. Democrats can’t make the argument that Trump is dangerous and needs to be removed from office while at the same time holding onto the articles because the Senate schedule is otherwise packed.

What does the Senate do? Whenever Pelosi sends the articles to the Senate they become the chamber’s top priority — the Senate must begin considering impeachment by 1 p.m. the day after receiving the articles from the House. We can think of a few Republicans that sound like they’ll vote for impeachment: Sens. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). Yet Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) on Sunday sounded bearish about the process — as good of a sign as any that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell  (R-Ky.) isn’t for impeachment. But, if the Senate doesn’t vote until after Biden is in the White House, perhaps more Republicans would sign on to guarantee Trump can’t run again.

A “Plan D” is starting to get buzz. The 14th Amendment, Section 3 says: 

“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

As part of a post-Civil War amendment to the Constitution, this provision was aimed at preventing former Confederate soldiers from serving in Congress. There’s some discussion in legal circles that it could be used against Trump, but it’s a longshot.

D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton suggested censuring Trump as a compromise, but there doesn’t seem to be momentum for that. There’s also discussion of censuring Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) and Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) suggested expelling the members who voted against certifying the election, although this seems unlikely at this point. But this all illustrates the pressures in the Democratic Caucus. 

Happening today: Dems have a caucus call at 2 p.m. McCarthy has a 4:30 p.m. phone call with his conference.

INSIDE THE HOUSE GOP

McCarthy’s problem

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and congressional Republicans have a gigantic problem.

Their money spigot is getting cut off, they’re becoming pariahs and corporations and organizations are beginning to consider them a reputational risk.

Corporate America and trade associations want nothing to do with the GOP after Republicans voted to overturn the election results. Stripe won’t process payments for Trump’s website. The Blue Cross Blue Shield Association and Marriott have said they won’t give to any Republicans who voted not to certify the Electoral College results. 

That list of Republicans includes McCarthy, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) — the three Republicans at the helm of the party’s election infrastructure.

The larger question becomes whether companies and trade associations also freeze out the NRCC and the super PACs that support Republicans. McCarthy, Scalise and Emmer are the party’s fundraisers and campaign chiefs. Will companies give them checks? Most House money is disclosed, so there are few ways for corporations to secretly fund the GOP.

Another outstanding question: How long will the Republican cash moratorium last. Is this just a slap on the wrist and a couple of months later the companies will resume their contributions? JPMC said the bank would stop political giving to both parties for six months. Citibank paused donations for the first quarter.

McCarthy knows he has a problem. He started reaching out to trade association executives and others late last week to try and set up calls as soon as possible. 

Trade associations are also considering making the election certification vote a “key vote.” This would effectively punish lawmakers who voted against certifying the election.

Interesting Hill dynamic: Some senior Democratic aides have begun talking about freezing out Republicans who voted against certifying the election in the Capitol. This would include not signing onto letters with these Republicans, not co-sponsoring bills with them and not allowing their bills to get through committees or onto the floor no matter how uncontroversial they are.

Another data point: The PGA pulled its 2022 championship from Trump’s Bedminster course. Here’s Seth Waugh, the CEO of the PGA, in an interview with the AP’s golf writer Doug Ferguson:

“We find ourselves in a political situation not of our making. We’re fiduciaries for our members, for the game, for our mission and for our brand. And how do we best protect that? Our feeling was given the tragic events of Wednesday that we could no longer hold it at Bedminster. The damage could have been irreparable. The only real course of action was to leave.”

Let that sink in. The PGA is saying that associating itself with Trump’s course could cause "irreperable" damage.

WaPo’s Phil Rucker: “As Trump leaves office weakened, Republicans wonder if his wounds are fatal”

THE WASHINGTON GAME

D.C. statehood now?

D.C Statehood now? The group “51 for 51” is launching a $500,000 online campaign this week to push for the District of Columbia to become the 51st state, with one House seat and two senators.

The ads will run in D.C. and nationally on YouTube. The group is also running ads on the Washington Post and Axios websites.

“51 for 51 urges full representation [in Congress] for the more than 700,000 residents of the District of Columbia — who have all the same responsibilities, but not the same rights, as our fellow Americans,” the organization says on its website. One of the ads talks about the “urgency of the moment” citing the Black Lives Matters protests as a reason to push this issue.

Senate Republicans are adamantly opposed to D.C. statehood for the simple reason that it will add two Democratic senators to the body to represent the overwhelmingly Democratic city. When Republicans hold the Senate (or the White House), the issue has no chance of going anywhere. When power is in Democratic hands, Republicans use the filibuster to block it.

But 51 for 51, a coalition of progressive groups, says soon to be Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) should use the “nuclear option” to blow up the filibuster —  meaning change Senate rules by a simple majority vote — just as current Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did in 2017 to push Neil Gorsuch onto the Supreme Court. McConnell argued rightly that he was just finishing a process begun by Democrats four years earlier in limiting filibusters on executive-branch nominees. 

But 51 for 51 and other progressives are arguing that filibuster should be eliminated altogether. Kamala Harris endorsed D.C. statehood during the campaign even if it meant getting rid of the filibuster, while Joe Biden gave a fuzzier yes. Schumer knows that he doesn’t have the votes for this — not yet anyway — but he’s going to have to make a decision whether to press the issue early in the new Congress.

MOMENTS

Joe Biden will receive the second dose of his Covid vaccine. He’ll also get a daily briefing. 

President Donald Trump has nothing on his schedule

The House has a pro-forma session at 11 a.m.

CLIP FILE

NYT “Stripped of Twitter, Trump Faces a New Challenge: How to Command Attention,” by Maggie Haberman

… “Inside a Deadly Siege: How a String of Failures Led to a Dark Day at the Capitol,” by Mark Mazzetti, Helene Cooper, Jennifer Steinhauer, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Luke Broadwater

AP: “Capitol assault a more sinister attack than first appeared,” by Jay Reeves, Lisa Mascaro and Calvin Woodward: “Only days later is the extent of the danger from one of the darkest episodes in American democracy coming into focus. The sinister nature of the assault has become evident, betraying the crowd as a force determined to occupy the inner sanctums of Congress and run down leaders — Trump’s vice president and the Democratic House speaker among them. This was not just a collection of Trump supporters with MAGA bling caught up in a wave.” … 

… “U.S. diplomats make extraordinary protest against Trump after riot”

WaPo: “Outgoing Capitol Police chief: House, Senate security officials hamstrung efforts to call in National Guard,” by Carol Leonnig, Aaron Davis, Peter Hermann and Karoun Demirjian: “Two days before Congress was set to formalize President-elect Joe Biden’s victory, Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund was growing increasingly worried about the size of the pro-Trump crowds expected to stream into Washington in protest.

“To be on the safe side, Sund asked House and Senate security officials for permission to request that the D.C. National Guard be placed on standby in case he needed quick backup. But, Sund said Sunday, they turned him down.

“In his first interview since pro-Trump rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol last week, Sund, who has since resigned his post, said his supervisors were reluctant to take formal steps to put the Guard on call even as police intelligence suggested that the crowd President Trump had invited to Washington to protest his defeat probably would be much larger than earlier demonstrations.

“House Sergeant at Arms Paul Irving said he wasn’t comfortable with the ‘optics’ of formally declaring an emergency ahead of the demonstration, Sund said. Meanwhile, Senate Sergeant at Arms Michael Stenger suggested that Sund should informally seek out his Guard contacts, asking them to ‘lean forward’ and be on alert in case Capitol Police needed their help.”

WSJ: “Markets Rally Highlights Bets on Recovery,” by Michael Wursthorn: “Investors are showing signs of increasing exuberance, reflecting optimism about a vaccine-fueled global recovery and the changed economics of the post-coronavirus world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6% for the first week of 2021, marking its fourth-straight weekly gain despite a mob storming the U.S. Capitol Wednesday and a decline in nonfarm payrolls reported Friday.”

… WSJ Editorial Board: “Whatever the GOP’s future, and despite widespread revulsion at the President’s actions last week, tens of millions of his supporters will be the basis for that opposition party. New and aggressive uses of corporate, politically endorsed power to silence larger swathes of the right will be destructive in a way that all Americans may live to regret.”

Revolving Door: Daniel Schwarz, director of strategic communications for Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y,) and the House Judiciary Committee, is joining Hill+Knowlton Strategies as senior vice president in their public affairs practice.

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