PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Washington’s new phase has started. Yeah, this Punchbowl thing — we’ll get to that in a minute, after we lay out the stakes for this Congress, and show you our conversation with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez about whether she’s going to primary Chuck Schumer.

But this city is beginning a transformation, which we started to see yesterday with Nancy Pelosi’s narrow reelection as speaker. We’ll see even more of this shift the coming days, weeks and months as Joe Biden assumes power, Donald Trump leaves the White House — we think. Power is shifting and political incentives are changing. 

The core of Punchbowl is simple: Power, People, Politics in Washington. That’s our North Star, and the nucleus of what we will cover and chart: How power is exercised in Washington, who is exercising it, why and how. The politics of governing, and Washington as a capital city, a social center and place where corporations and political players wage war. 

So, let’s start this crazy week with five questions about the five power centers we’ll be most obsessed with on Team Punchbowl.

1) Will Speaker Nancy Pelosi last the term?

Whether you love her or hate her, Pelosi has been among the most consequential legislators of the last 50 years. 

But what will drive this Congress is this simple question: Is she going to last the full two-year term? Pelosi’s world shoos away the question as if it’s radioactive. The California Democrat, 80, has already obliquely said she intends this to be her last term in the speakership. If we know Pelosi like we think we do, she won’t leave until she has a succession plan — no matter what she says. 

Think of it like this: Joe Biden has a limited agenda without Congress, and the House is listless without a powerful speaker. So Pelosi will spend the next 12 months muscling legislation through the Capitol on behalf of the president, and her Democratic Caucus. That’s no small feat, considering she has the smallest Democratic majority since the 1940s.

That’s the problem for Pelosi: Anything she does will need near unanimous support of Democrats to pass, or she will need to turn to Kevin McCarthy for help. Having a Democrat in the Oval Office will set the agenda for the party, but progressive members are determined to push Biden as far as they can. A lot of the Democratic success — or failure — over the next two years will come down to how well Biden and Pelosi can work together.

If Pelosi leaves sometime this term, there’s a legitimate scenario where House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer becomes the speaker, a caretaker and bridge to a new generation. Who is that next generation? Karen Bass of California, Hakeem Jeffries of New York or Adam Schiff of California. 

If you’re Pelosi, why stick around for a possible midterm election-year romp? Why not go out on top? If history is a guide, 2022 could be a House Democratic bloodbath. McCarthy is doing everything he can to snatch the gavel out of Pelosi’s hands. Sounds pretty miserable. And who wants to run the risk of losing the House for a second time? 

Republicans, not surprisingly, are already pouncing on those Democrats who voted for Pelosi. The Congressional Leadership Fund — the House GOP super PAC — is launching a digital ad campaign in 21 districts criticizing Dems who voted for Pelosi for speaker.

Here is their ad criticizing Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.). 

2) Will Mitch McConnell win Georgia? And what happens if he loses?

It’s folly to examine the long-term political calculations and incentives for McConnell when his future will be decided Tuesday when Georgia heads to the polls to decide whether Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue deserve to return to the Senate.

We have been hearing some pretty negative vibes out of the Georgia GOP world.

From a Republican involved in the race: “Georgia is going to be a nail-biter for Republicans but they could and should pull it off. We’ve controlled the state for years, have the benefit of incumbency, and a more sophisticated ground game. The GOP also has the benefit of warning of boogeyman ‘Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’ to enthuse Republicans to turn out. But there’s no way to measure how President Trump’s antics the last few weeks could impact the race.”

Jonathan Martin and Astead Herndon of the NYT: “Georgia Is Getting More Blue. The Senate Races Will Tell How Much.” 

If McConnell loses the majority, look to upstarts like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) to agitate even more against the leadership. Hawley is one of 12 senators who is challenging the election results. In a sign of the divide, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has said he won’t join in that challenge — “I will not oppose the counting of certified electoral votes on January 6,” he said. 

Note: Ivanka Trump is continuing her involvement in the Georgia race. She headlined a virtual rally Sunday night, which had 16,000 attendees — the pair’s largest telerally to date. The rally was hosted by the NRSC.

3) Will McCarthy deal?

McCarthy has but one thing in his head right now: How to knock off enough Democrats to get the speaker’s gavel, a prize he’s been seeking since 2015, when he bowed out of the race moments before it was set to begin. 

How will his drive for the majority impact his willingness to govern in an incredibly tight legislative climate? Can Biden and Pelosi count on him for any cooperation at all? There should be a window — call it six to nine months — during which Congress should be able to get some things done on Covid relief and perhaps infrastructure. Can McCarthy get into the ring on those? If not, they’re dead in a Dem caucus that is as tight as it is.

4) How will Schumer act in cycle?

Chuck Schumer is up for re-election this cycle, and the only real challenge in blue New York will come from the left. How will that impact his dealmaking with Biden and McConnell? Can he agree to a Covid bill that doesn’t include items like canceling student debt? Can he tack to the middle at all? For some clues, see our AOC interview below.

5) Will Joe Biden find a working Washington, or will the fever remain simmering?

The general binary now for Biden is, can he work the middle of the Senate, or not?

The middle is Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), and Biden’s best friend on the Hill, Chris Coons (D-Del.). These senators were part of the group that helped jumpstart the recent bipartisan Covid relief deal. That was a good blueprint for how the rank and file can impact the legislative debate: create noise, heat, build support and then force the leadership into action.

Biden’s challenge is to see if he can make that bipartisan gang a reality, or show that it was a one-time experiment. Trump’s outlandish behavior drove some of the moderate Republicans toward Democrats, but what will happen when Trump is gone?

If Biden can’t find that sweet spot and if McConnell is in the majority, the incoming Democratic president is going to have some major problems.

AOC WATCH

Will AOC challenge Schumer?

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — and her future — drives so much attention in both Washington and New York. She is, without a doubt, one of the most popular politicians on the left, and an obsession on the right. She is the best known member of Congress. Smart Republicans concede that she has game — and envy her communication skills. And people in Schumer world are left obsessively wondering if she’ll launch a campaign to take him on in a primary. Schumer world says that they think she’ll run for governor or lieutenant governor — LOL. 

AOC recently got denied a seat on the Energy and Commerce Committee — a prime committee slot that might have kept her interested in the House. 

We put it to AOC Sunday in the Capitol. What are you going to do? Does that disappointment make it more likely she’ll run for Senate? This has been lightly edited. 

AOC: “I’m a no bullshit kind of person. I’m not playing coy or anything like that. I’m still very much in a place where I’m trying to decide what is the most effective thing I can do to help our Congress, our [political] process, and our country actually address the issues of climate change, health care, wage inequality, etc. For me, the positional stuff, these are just tactical decisions. Those choices have a lot more to do with ‘the board’, not just one person. Not just me as an individual.”

Punchbowl: Would the prospect of Democrats losing the House impact your decision?

AOC: “I’m not sure about that either. For me, I don’t make these decisions based on these short-term factors … Also, I came in as a young member. I think how am I going to dedicate my life to change. So, two years, who cares about two years? If I want to have a child, I would want my child – or my nieces or nephews – to have guaranteed health care by the time they’re my age. And freedom from want. I’m also very indecisive”

Punchbowl: Do you think Schumer is doing a good job?

AOC:  “I’ve worked with the senator. He and I have an open relationship, we speak to each other regularly. … [We spoke] two or three weeks ago. During the Covid negotiations. Because one of my early priorities was – because my district was really hard hit early on – one of my priorities was to get funeral assistance for families that have to bury their loved ones. They shouldn’t have to deal with the economic burden. I worked with Sen. Schumer. We collaborated on this. We were able to get about $2 billion in FEMA assistance for our families.

“We have to push the Biden administration hard. This whole thing ‘We can’t cancel student loan debt’ is not gonna fly.”

Punchbowl: Do you think Schumer’s doing a good job? And do you give yourself a time limit to make a decision on challenging him? Is it 30, 60 or 90 days? Six months?

AOC: “It’s a hard thing to say too. We’ve had to deal with a fascist president and Mitch McConnell. There’s this thing, ‘Are we doing a good job?’ There are things you can do in the minority. There are also things you couldn’t do with this minority because Senate rules changed.

“I like to think of myself as a good-faith actor and not make unfair critiques. But I do wonder. On the one hand, we pushed it to the limit rules-wise. On other things, you look back and there are things that are hard. These judicial appointments – is there any way we could have avoided this?”

WHAT TO EXPECT

Welcome to the mix

Good morning and welcome to Punchbowl. Thanks for coming along for the ride.

Punchbowl is a news community with a simple credo: Power. People. Politics. We are entering the tightest governing climate in recent American history, and Punchbowl is going to be feeding you a constant cadence of content about power and how it’s exercised in Washington.

Our focus will be on movement, not motion. We’re not going to chase shiny objects, but rather focus on the several dozen people who have power in Washington, and exercise it, how they exercise it and why. You’ll be reading a lot about congressional leaders — the Four Corners, as they’re known — top figures in the White House and in the business community.

Why are we calling it Punchbowl? Because it’s the Secret Service nickname for the Capitol, and that’s where we spend a bunch of time trying to understand the leaders, their motivations and what they are going to do before they do it. 

Why do we call it a news community? Glad you asked. Because we believe that news has, for far too long, been a one-way street. Punchbowl will host a lot of events — virtual and in person, when we can — to try to add context to the news and convene like-minded people in places like D.C., New York, L.A. and the Bay. We’ll also engage with our members through other channels — very frequent online chats, shows and more. These won’t be the normal D.C. events or the typical corporate back-and-forth, they’ll be better. Trust us. We promise. 

What will we offer? This is Punchbowl AM, our daily morning email. It will always be free. Punchbowl Midday and Punchbowl PM will be free — for now, but only for now. It will be part of a subscription package that will also give you access to our events, and news from us as it happens. Our site — punchbowl.news — will have archives, but that’s about it. We’ll deliver all of our content to you. That will include stories — when Bres makes us write them — and the weekly Punchbowl Power Matrix and more. You won’t have to wait for stories to show up on a website, or scroll through Twitter to find out what the news is. We’ll be on the scene, reporting it and sending it to you.

We have also signed a podcast deal for the Daily Punch — a morning talk show between Jake and Anna, which will launch sometime in February. We’re thrilled to partner with Cadence13 — which helped launch Crooked Media’s suite of podcasts.

The Lookahead is our Sunday night show. It’s going to be a living, interactive version of our typical Sunday night chats about the week ahead. You can watch or participate. 

We’d like to introduce you to another member of our team: Rachel Schindler has joined us from Facebook. She’s the best, and without her, there would be no Punchbowl.

So thanks for being in the mix. Email us and let us know what you want. This is a conversation, not a lecture. Our emails are first name [at] punchbowl [dot] news. 

THE CLIP FILE

The big story: WaPo’s Amy Gardner shows that she has receipts: “‘I just want to find 11,780 votes’: In extraordinary hour-long call, Trump pressures Georgia secretary of state to recalculate the vote in his favor”

It was big enough that the NYT led with it on its front page — even though it was the Post’s scoop.

WaPo … “Bowser warns D.C. residents to stay away when Trump supporters amass downtown Wednesday,” by Julie Zausmer … Ashley Parker: "Trump to give ally Nunes the Presidential Medal of Freedom"

NYT … Carl Hulse “Republicans Begin New Congress Feuding Over Bid to Overturn Election,” … Michael Crowley: “Biden Plans Minimalist Trip From Capitol to White House on Inauguration Day”

POLITICO: "The War Within the GOP,"  by Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine

WSJ: Joanne Chiu and Anna Hirtenstein: “U.S. Stock Futures Point to Extended Rally”

WSJ Ed Board: “The Election Rejectionists”: “In our view this week’s exercise is also unconstitutional. The text of the original charter, elaborated by the 12th Amendment, gives state legislatures the power to appoint electors. The Vice President is charged to open the votes to be counted — nothing more.

“This is the fire Republicans are playing with, no matter their political calculation. Some may figure the vote Wednesday is merely symbolic; they can show solidarity with Mr. Trump’s voters and dodge a primary challenge in 2022. Sens. Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz are making their own presidential calculations for 2024. But the cost of this showboating will be more political cynicism, and a precedent that Democrats are sure to exploit in the aftermath of some future close election.”

AJC: “Gov. Brian Kemp absent from GOP campaign trail in closing days,” by Patricia Murphy

Moments

— 10:30 a.m.: Reps. Hakeem Jeffries/Pete Aguilar weekly news conference in the Capitol

— Noon: House gavels into session

— 6:20 p.m.: Trump rally in Dalton, Ga.

WORKING THE OTHER SIDE

Biden noms begin lobbying GOP

The Biden administration has begun reaching deep into the Senate Republican Conference to whip up support for their Cabinet nominees — even as some members of Mitch McConnell’s squad continue to deny the reality that Joe Biden will be the next president. 

— Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has spoken with HHS nominee Xavier Becerra,  ODNI nominee Avril Haines and USTR nominee Katherine Tai. “I’m open to it, but nobody else has asked for it. I haven’t turned anyone down… Sen. McConnell has made it clear he’s going to put the nominees on the floor.”

— Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) told us that Transportation nominee Pete Buttigieg — from his home state — “got hold of my cell phone, and I’ve been very restrictive on that. I have a message on my cell that says call my office number. He left a message there. I did talk to him.”

— Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) has spoken to UN nominee Linda Thomas-Greenfield — who, he reminded us, is an LSU grad. He said Becerra wants to speak to him. Here’s what he had to say about that: “He has no background in heath care, social services or science. Aside from that, I’m sure he’s qualified.”

— Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) has spoken with Denis McDonough, the nominee for Veterans Affairs.

— Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) will speak this week to Defense nominee Lloyd Austin and McDonough this week.

— Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) — the chairman of the Appropriations Committee — said he thought it was “premature” to talk to Biden’s team last week. “Wait ‘til we come into the next Congress.” That begins today.

PUNCHBOWL BOOK CLUB

Mullins bros writing lobbying tell all

Brody Mullins of the Wall Street Journal and his brother Luke Mullins of The Washingtonian have inked a deal with Simon and Schuster to write a book about the modern influence industry and the rise of corporate power in Washington over the last 50 years.

This will be a good one. Anything these two touch turns to gold.

This book will give a behind-the-scenes view of the evolution of lobbying from the 1970s to today, through the lives of power brokers like Tommy Boggs, Paul Manafort and Tony Podesta.

Priscilla Painton and Simon and Schuster will edit the book. Richard Pine at Inkwell Management represents the Mullins brothers.

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