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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Tuesday morning. 

News: The Biden administration will hold two classified briefings today for congressional leadership aides and committee staff on the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, with the Russian military buildup continuing on that embattled nation’s eastern border. 

Administration officials are working on briefings for all members of the House and Senate, but that will have to wait until Congress returns next week. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have both called for full-chamber briefings. The Pentagon has put 8,500 troops on standby for possible deployment to Eastern European allies and Baltic nations amid increasing Russian hostility. Other NATO allies are moving air and naval assets to the region as well.

In the wake of the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, expect that Congress is going to be on heightened alert when it comes to American involvement in Eastern Europe. There have been calls for preemptive sanctions on Russia. Some members of Congress are already calling for Russia to be ejected from the SWIFT banking system, the facilitator of worldwide financial transactions. The House and Senate are both working on legislation to help bolster Ukrainian defenses and punish Russia ahead of what President Joe Biden has called a likely invasion of its neighbor. 

A Biden administration official gave us some insight at executive branch engagement with Capitol Hill on Ukraine and Russia during the last six weeks as the crisis has unfolded:

→ Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman have spoken to nearly 20 lawmakers in the last week and have further calls planned this week.

→ On Dec. 7, Biden spoke to the “Big Four” – the party leaders in the House and Senate – about Ukraine and Russia. Biden also met with the bipartisan Senate group that just returned from Kyiv Jan. 19.

→ National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has held six briefings for members, including leadership and national security committee chairs and ranking members. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN’s Manu Raju on Monday that he’d recently spoken with Sullivan.

→ There have been nine interagency briefings for the national security committees and eight briefings for leadership, committee and personal office staff. 

This will all pick up even more if Russia invades or Biden decides to commit U.S. troops to the Baltic states or Poland.

And at some point, Biden may have to consider a national address on the Ukraine crisis. The president commented extensively on Ukraine, Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the situation in Eastern Europe during his nearly two-hour press conference last week. However, this situation is quickly taking on a whole new level of gravity with the potential deployment of U.S. forces to the region. Biden will deliver his State of the Union on March 1, so that could give him an opportunity to talk about the political climate in Eastern Europe and what he sees as the shape of U.S. involvement. 

While the possibility of a direct U.S.-Russian military confrontation remains low, the stakes here are huge. Ukraine’s fate as an independent nation hangs in the balance, as does the future of 40-million plus Ukrainians. Europe hasn’t seen a potential military action on this scale since World War II. A Russian invasion would place enormous pressure on NATO, especially as German officials seem lukewarm about a possible showdown over Ukraine. On the Hill, Republicans have little trust or faith in Biden’s leadership, publicly or privately.

Reminder: We’re hosting our first virtual editorial conversation of the year today at 9:15 a.m. EST with Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) on global competitiveness and the role of American businesses in the 21st century economy. RSVP to join!

2022

News: Gallego traveled to NYC to meet with Sinema donors about Senate run

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) seems awfully serious about launching a primary challenge to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

Gallego went to New York over the weekend to meet with some of Sinema’s donors about a possible Senate run in 2024, according to sources close to the situation.

This came just a day after Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party over her refusal to back any changes to the Senate’s filibuster rule to allow passage of a big Democratic voting rights bill. Sinema supported the voting rights package but wouldn’t agree to alter the Senate’s 60-vote threshold for cutting off debate on legislation.

Sinema’s stance won plaudits from Republicans but touched off a huge backlash from Democrats and party activists. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has openly called for a challenge to his Arizona colleague and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

Gallego, a Harvard grad who served with the Marines in Iraq, declined to comment. But the fourth-term Democrat has said publicly that he’s mulling a challenge to Sinema. 

The 42-year-old Democrat told CNN last week that some of Sinema’s Senate colleagues have approached him about seeking a Senate seat.

"To be honest, I have gotten a lot of encouragement from elected officials, from senators, from unions, from your traditional Democratic groups, big donors," Gallego said. "Everything you can imagine under the sun."

Gallego, the son of a Columbian mother and Mexican father, also pointedly went to the House floor to speak in favor of the voting rights package while Sinema was making her Senate speech declaring her support for the filibuster. Gallego would vote to get rid of the filibuster, he said.

There was also this column recently in the Arizona Republic – “Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has a headache and it has a name: Rep. Ruben Gallego.”

According to the New York Times, Sinema has potentially big problems back home: 

“A new survey of Arizona voters, conducted this month, but not yet released, by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix polling and research firm, found a 30-point gulf in support for Arizona’s senators among Democrats. While 74 percent of Democrats said they had favorable views of Mr. Kelly, just 42 percent of Democrats felt the same about Ms. Sinema.”

Sinema, however, was the first Democrat to win an Arizona Senate race in 30 years when she defeated Republican Martha McSally in 2018.

Arizona primaries are semi-open, which means Democrats can vote, as well as voters who are “registered as ‘no party preference,’ independent, or members of parties that are not represented on the ballot to vote in primary elections.” 

→ This caught our eye. Rep. Beth Van Duyne’s (R-Texas) PAC’s fundraiser has sent out her committee’s 2022 donor program. For a $2,500 or $5,000 contribution, among the benefits you get is a “one-on-one” coffee with Van Duyne. We’ve not seen such an explicit cash-for-private-meeting offering before. Also: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise are appearing at “Wine with Van Duyne” sessions. Those start at 4:30 p.m. if you’re looking for an early pop with some members of Congress. Here’s the PAC’s fundraising menu.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.

12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

2 p.m.: Harris will speak at the President’s Interagency Task Force To Monitor and Combat Trafficking In Persons.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “For Ukrainian Soldiers, a Nervous Guessing Game on the Front,” by Andrew Kramer in Svitlodarsk, Ukraine

→ “Court Throws Out Alabama’s New Congressional Map,” by Reid Epstein

→ “What the Trump Documents Might Tell the Jan. 6 Committee,” by Luke Broadwater, Alan Feuer, Nick Corasaniti and Mike Schmidt

WaPo

→ “U.S. and NATO allies intensify diplomacy in push to deter Russian ‘lightning raid’ on Ukraine,” by Robyn Dixon in Moscow, Rachel Pannett in Sydney and David L. Stern

WSJ

→  “​​On the Brink of War With Russia, Ukrainians Are Resigned and Prepared,” by James Marson in Kyiv

Politico

→ “8 senators revive Russia sanctions push as Ukraine invasion fears mount,” by Alexander Ward and Andrew Desiderio

Fox News

→ “Fox News’ Peter Doocy says Biden ‘cleared the air’ with him following the ‘SOB’ insult,” by Joseph A. Wulfsohn

Philadelphia Inquirer

→ “The clock is ticking for Pa. redistricting. The 2022 primary is at stake. Here’s what to know,” by Jonathan Lai

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images