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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Friday morning. The December jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m. this morning. Experts expect strong numbers, which, of course, would be welcome news for Democrats at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. The federal government and D.C. public schools are closed today due to the snow. 

Biden’s two big speeches

President Joe Biden is in the midst of a pair of very consequential speeches as he nears the one-year mark of his presidency.

On Thursday, Biden spoke from the Capitol about the future of democracy, the rising tide of authoritarianism, former President Donald Trump and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. 

And on Tuesday, Biden will head to Georgia to talk about voting rights and changing the rules of the Senate, where he served for 36 years and frequently defended the institution’s use of the filibuster.

It’s abundantly clear that on Thursday, Biden’s goal was to speak forcefully about the Capitol insurrection and pin the blame on who he sees as responsible: Trump. 

Aides tell us that Biden’s goal next week is to build public support for passing voting rights legislation. Biden wants to raise the national profile for the issue, which means he’ll have to make it clear that the way to get past the Republican opposition to overhauling election laws is to change the Senate’s rules to scale back or eliminate the filibuster. 

This speech isn’t expected to be a Chuck Schumerish “It’s-all-on-Joe-Manchin” type broadside that we’ve heard the last few days from the New York Democrat. Rather, Biden will look to explain what he sees as the stakes in the voting rights debate and how to achieve what Democrats are looking to achieve. 

Of course, building public support for voting rights is logical. But the logic falls apart a bit when you consider that Manchin doesn’t have the same incentives that Biden does. The West Virginian is opposed to scrapping the filibuster. Manchin comes from a red state where the president is deeply unpopular. The former governor considers himself a master of his home state politics.

There’s a lot happening at this particular moment in Biden’s presidency. Beset by falling poll numbers, a resurgent Covid pandemic, stalled legislative agenda and a defeated former opponent who is driving the GOP into an ever more extreme direction, this voting rights-filibuster drive is a calculated risk for Biden. Like the failure to enact the Build Back Better Act, Biden could very well end up with nothing but more defeats. Internally at the White House, Biden aides argue that, despite the BBB floundering on Capitol Hill, the president made the legislation more popular and lined up his entire party behind it, save Manchin. That’s cold comfort at the end of the day.

Let’s walk through what’s at stake here for the president:

→ This is what his base wants: On both of these topics, this is precisely what the Democratic faithful have been asking for. Our good friend Laura Barron-Lopez pointed that out in Politico last night. This is a typical gripe about presidents, one that we heard about Barack Obama: they are afforded a bully pulpit and they should use it more expansively.

With Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) seemingly impervious to Schumer’s cajoling on voting rights or eliminating the filibuster, trying to build public pressure is the administration’s only play at this point. It’s a longshot, sure. But so is enacting the Democrats’ voting rights bill.

→ Why elevate a fight you’re going to lose? Traveling to Georgia, the home of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), one of the leading scrap-the-filibuster-for-voting-rights voices and a vulnerable 2022 incumbent, could give the impression that Democrats have a good chance at changing the Senate’s rules and passing an election overhaul. They don’t. They’re making progressive activists think they do, but it’s a longshot at best. The most likely outcome of this gambit is another few weeks of maniacal coverage of Manchin, with reporters hanging on his every will-he-or-won’t-he flinch. And here’s a spoiler alert: he won’t. He has said it countless times. 

→ Democrats appear to be moving on: This isn’t getting nearly enough attention. A group of several Democrats have already teamed up with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and other Republicans to discuss changes to the Electoral Count Act. In other words, while Schumer is pushing an aggressive Democratic response to what he sees as a crisis threatening democracy, some of his own Democrats are working with Republicans on a different bill already.

→ Is BBB over? So is the $1.7 trillion Build Back Better Act done? There was no movement on this issue at all this week after Manchin bashed it once again. Manchin and Schumer can’t even agree if they’re still negotiating. The issue that has dominated Washington for the last six months has suddenly disappeared from the legislative radar screen.

We’ll unpack a lot more of this in the coming days, but next week will be an incredibly important one for the Democratic Party on Capitol Hill. The voting rights and filibuster debate will be on the floor ahead of Schumer’s Jan. 17 deadline.

BUDGET WARS

If the BBB is stalled, does that leave room for a big budget deal?

With the $1.7 trillion Build Back Back Act – President Joe Biden’s top legislative priority – apparently stalled (see above), does that leave political room for leaders in both parties to reach a deal on a large-scale omnibus spending package?

Several Senate Republicans have been pushing this angle to their Democratic counterparts on the floor this week. Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, has been among those involved in the discussions.

Lawmakers in both parties also want to avoid using a continuing resolution to fund the Pentagon and national security agencies. The Defense subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee has scheduled a Wednesday hearing where military branch chiefs will discuss the negative impact a CR would have on the armed forces. Billions of dollars in funding would be impacted, and it could end up costing Congress and the country more in the long run.

“I think people realize time is running out. We have to do it now,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) told us this week. Federal agencies are funded through Feb. 18 under the current CR.

“Whether we do BBB or not, we have to have an omnibus. And I think we can have it before next month,” Leahy added.

There has been some suggestion of pairing additional Covid relief funding and other social spending with an increase in Pentagon funding as a centerpiece of a broader budget deal. While lawmakers on the left and right would object, some senior appropriators in both chambers believe enough votes could be found to push a package through the House and Senate.

Both chambers approved the National Defense Authorization Act – the annual defense policy bill – at the $740 billion level by bipartisan margins. That’s far higher military spending than initially proposed by the White House. So Congress seems perfectly ready to spend more money on defense. A lot more.

Our friends Connor O’Brien and Jennifer Scholtes at Politico reported this week that House Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and her aides “have made calls to members over the recess to see if they’d support spending more on the Pentagon than the administration wants.”

But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, like Shelby, has warned House Democrats that Republicans want parity between defense and non-defense spending, as well as “no poison pills” for policy riders. Much of the GOP focus is on retaining the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal funding for abortions.

And the procedural difficulties of reaching and passing an omnibus spending deal are huge. First, there would have to be a deal on the topline amount between the GOP and Democratic leadership on the Hill, as well as the White House. Then the policy riders would have to be hammered out. The two sides also need to negotiate on individual bills, and none of these have moved through the Senate so far.

“We know Feb. 18 is coming up,” Shelby told us earlier in the week. “I don’t know if we’ll meet that deadline.”

Buttigieg on why government is key to the future of innovation

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg delivered a virtual address to CES yesterday and made the case why government deserves to play a crucial role in technological innovation.

Here are our top takeaways from Buttigieg’s speech:

→ Buttigieg is excited about implementing the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

As Transportation secretary, Buttigieg has substantial power in doling out money to fund new projects nationwide. Buttigieg touched on what he sees as the successes of the legislation, including increasing access to affordable electric vehicles. 

“The investments in that law, the agenda to build a better America, will help more Americans purchase affordable EVs and save money on gas. They’ll help more children take the bus to school without being exposed to toxic fumes, and they will put more people to work creating the infrastructure of the future. 

The infrastructure law also creates a fund for major projects that are too large or complex for traditional funding systems. It’s a huge opportunity and a big challenge because alongside that funding, it will be vitally important for us to improve our country’s track record when it comes to delivering big infrastructure projects on time on task and on budget.”

→ Government has a key role to play in innovation.

Buttigieg unveiled the Department of Transportation’s “six guiding principles for innovation,” asserting that championing innovation isn’t solely for the private sector.

The former South Bend, Ind., mayor showed he knew his audience: regulatory-wary tech enthusiasts who often see government as a stumbling block in the pursuit of advancement.

“Innovation doesn’t just come from Silicon Valley and it doesn’t always involve a shiny new piece of technology. In fact, a lot of innovation is happening in the civic space coming from our cities and states…  I know that for some government and innovation are not words that naturally go together. But the reality is the public sector has always played a crucial role in unlocking the innovative capacity of the American people.”

→ Buttigieg addressed the anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack in a unique way.

Buttigieg’s speech fell one year after a violent mob overran the Capitol, and he discussed the attack in different terms than other politicians. Buttigieg acknowledged that while misinformation and domestic extremism led to the insurrection, declining faith in American institutions also played a role.

“There’s a belief that our institutions and the people who lead them cannot be trusted because they do not deliver. Across the board, public trust in our institutions, government, corporations, media — even philanthropy — has been careening toward an all-time low in recent years. And volumes of commentary could have been written about the various reasons contributing to that problem. I’m convinced that one of the most important solutions is to make sure that the actual outcomes of public policy are better and better understood. And that they’re better not just for a select few, but for all Americans.”

→ On the scene: CTA hosted its annual “Leaders in Technology” reception and dinner. The event drew lots of Washington lawmakers, officials, and downtowners, including Reps. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Nanette Barragan (D-Calif.). Also in attendance: Consumer Products Safety Commissioner Peter Feldman and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas.). 

→ Also on the docket at CES today: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is hosting a discussion with a bipartisan panel of senators. Rosen will be joined by Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and Susan Collins (R-Maine). 

Here are some more details from a Rosen spokesperson:

“Senator Rosen is a former computer programmer and software developer who has attended CES in the past and, after visiting for the first time as a U.S. Senator in 2019, she had the idea of convening a bipartisan panel of Senators. She wanted to bring her colleagues to Las Vegas together with tech leaders and discuss their priorities and the issues around tech, cyber, and STEM.”

FRONTS

MOMENTS

All times eastern

10:45 a.m.: President Joe Biden will speak about the December jobs report.

11:15 a.m.: The Bidens will leave for Joint Base Andrews where they will fly to Denver and then travel to Louisville, Colo. Karine Jean-Pierre will gaggle aboard Air Force One.

5:30 p.m.: The Bidens will tour a neighborhood in Louisville. 

6:35 p.m.: The Bidens will meet with families impacted by the fire and speak about the administration’s response. 

8:35 p.m.: The Bidens will leave Denver for Las Vegas.

10:25 p.m.: The Bidens will arrive in Las Vegas, where they will spend the night ahead of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s funeral.

CLIP FILE

Briefly noted: Former Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) is eyeing a possible run for the House this year. He is "making phone calls and putting the plans together to return to Congress and, depending on its location, plans to announce his intention to run in the new House seat," a former aide said. Ross represented a district between Orlando and Tampa from 2011 to 2019. 

NYT

→ News Analysis: “Ignoring Trump Didn’t Work. Biden Goes After ‘a Defeated Former President.,’” by Zolan Kanno-Youngs

→ “Corporations Donated Millions to Lawmakers Who Voted to Overturn Election Results,” by Alan Rappeport, Madeleine Ngo and Kate Kelly

WaPo

→ “White House, USPS finalizing plans to begin shipping coronavirus test kits to U.S. households,” by Jacob Bogage and Dan Diamond

→ "Kazakhstan president gives shoot-to-kill order against protesters, dismissing calls for negotiations,” by Mary Ilyushina and Amy Cheng

WSJ

→ “Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels Since Spring 2020,” by Nicole Friedman, Orla McCaffrey and Sam Goldfarb

Bloomberg

→ “U.S. Treasuries Off to Worst-Ever Start of the Year,” by Garfield Clinton Reynolds

AP

→ “Supreme Court weighs vaccine rules affecting more than 80M,” by Mark Sherman and Jessica Gresko

LAT

→ ‘Unwelcome just about everywhere’: Europe tightens the screws on the unvaccinated,” by Monique El-Faizy and Laura King

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images