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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Monday morning. This is our only edition of the day since it’s a national holiday. 

We had a few interesting conversations with senior White House officials lately. We thought you would benefit from hearing their view on how things are going in avoiding legislative calamity and passing President Joe Biden’s agenda. We tend to be — how shall we say this — critical of a lot of elected officials. So here’s the view from 1600 Pennsylvania, plus our own take.

There are four things Congress has to do in the next few months — all of them we’ve been writing about pretty consistently.

→ Government funding. The administration’s take: The White House seems to think that Congress will be able to pass government funding quite easily by Dec. 3.  Punchbowl News’ take: Hmm, probably not. Congress hasn’t passed any of the annual appropriations bills, and party leaders just avoided a shutdown by passing a short-term funding bill. Senate Democrats may roll out some full-year spending bills this week, but it may not matter.

The answer to all these questions is “What happens to reconciliation?” No one in the Democratic congressional leadership is doing anything on the annual spending bills because they’re all focused on reconciliation. If the Democrats’ multi-trillion dollar reconciliation bill passes, don’t expect Republicans to do a spending deal, even if Democrats offer to increase defense spending.

→ Debt limit. The administration’s take: This, in the administration’s view, is more complicated, but they believe both the Republicans and Democrats want to avoid a debt default.  Punchbowl News’ take: See above answer. This is more complicated than the White House suggests. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to help Democrats pass the debt-limit increase last week gives him reason to give Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a hard time next go around. He’s told Biden as much. If there is no reconciliation bill, there can be a debt-limit/appropriations deal.

→ BIF. The administration’s take: The House will pass this bill and it will be the biggest transportation bill in 50 years. Punchbowl News’ take: Maybe. The House could pass this bill by Oct. 31 if there’s a “topline” deal between the House and Senate on the reconciliation package that both progressives and moderates can accept. If not, you could see the infrastructure bill delayed again. If Democrats don’t pass a reconciliation bill — and this would be a huge problem for Biden politically — there could be some House GOP support for this legislation. 

→ Reconciliation. The administration’s take: White House officials acknowledge this is challenging, but they see the gap narrowing. Two weeks ago, the left was at $3.5 trillion and the moderates were at $1.5 trillion. Now everyone is in the range of $1.8 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Punchbowl News’ take: Sure, this is just about right. That said, Democrats still have to land on a number. And then there is a TON that needs to be worked out as it relates to what programs end up in this bill and at what levels. 

The White House’s takeaway: If things go his way, Biden will have passed the American Rescue Plan, BIF and BBB in his first year with a 50-50 Senate. In their view, that puts him on par with legislative giants like FDR. 

Punchbowl News’ take: There’s a lot between here and there.

THE CANVASS

What senior aides on Capitol Hill are thinking, but probably not saying

We are very excited to share our new topline results from The Canvass, our anonymous survey of senior Capitol Hill staff. This is a project with the Locust Street Group.

As always, we’ll dig deep into the data in Tuesday’s afternoon and evening editions. But here are some toplines to mull over:

→ 54% of all staffers believe that Democrats will eventually lift the debt limit through reconciliation. 

→ 61% of Democrats believe Republicans will control the House next Congress. Just 39% of Democrats believe their party will keep the House. 

→ 64% of all staffers say Democrats will keep the Senate. 43% of Republicans staffers say so, and 84% of Democratic staffers. 

→ 62% of respondents believe that their bosses agree with President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. 64% disagree with how it was carried out. Just 21% agree with how the withdrawal was handled.

→ 84% of senior staffers believe that the state of the economy will be the decisive issue in the 2022 midterm elections. 61% of respondents said Covid-19 would be the top issue. 

Again, we’ll dive deeper into the results tomorrow for premium members. We surveyed some interesting topics, including what drives congressional staff turnover on the Hill. Sign up for premium. 

Wanna get in on the action? If you are a chief of staff, LD, comms director, staff director, or press secretary, sign up here to be the first to weigh in anonymously for next month’s survey.

2022

Sununu gets whacked on abortion, and W.Va. sees paid leave ad

Republicans are praying that Chris Sununu will run for Senate against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). New Hampshire represents one of the Republicans’ best pickup opportunities in the country if Sununu runs. 

But Sununu is getting hit hard on an abortion law he signed as governor. This is the second abortion-related ad by Amplify New Hampshire.

Here’s an ad by MomsRising in West Virginia, pushing paid leave as part of the reconciliation bill. ​

These ads are courtesy Ad Impact. 

Also: from the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein: “Republican Herschel Walker has raised $3.7 million since launching his campaign for U.S. Senate about five weeks ago, as GOP donors came off the sidelines to support the former Georgia football star.” That is a ridiculously high number.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

3:25 p.m.: President Joe Biden will leave Wilmington for the White House.

4:20 p.m.: Biden will arrive at the White House.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “U.S. Navy Engineer Charged in Attempt to Sell Nuclear Submarine Secrets,” by Julian E. Barnes, David E. Sanger and Brenda Wintrode

→ “White Tiger and Cheetah Furs: A Mess of Trump Gift Exchanges,” by Mike Schmidt

WaPo

→ “Liberal Democrats have become the mainstream of the party and less willing to compromise with dwindling moderates,” by Marianna Sotomayor

→ “Hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops have not yet complied with vaccine mandate as deadlines near,” by Alex Horton

→ “Allen West, Republican running for governor of Texas, hospitalized with covid-19,” by Rachel Pannett

WSJ

→ “Soaring Energy Prices Raise Concerns About U.S. Inflation, Economy,” by Josh Mitchell

AP

→ “Fall will test leaders’ ability to keep Congress on rails,” by Alan Fram

CNN

→ US Capitol Police whistleblower alleges leadership failures on January 6,” by Whitney Wild and Paul LeBlanc

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images