View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Friday morning. First, some news that broke last night, and then we’re going to talk about the “Big Four” congressional leaders and what we’re watching for in October.  

Former President Bill Clinton was hospitalized on Tuesday at the University of California Irvine Medical Center with sepsis, a blood infection. Clinton, 75, is responding to antibiotics, but he’ll remain hospitalized for at least one more day, according to media reports.

Here’s Clinton spokesperson Angel Urena: “On Tuesday evening, President Clinton was admitted to UCI Medical Center to receive treatment for a non-Covid-related. He is on the mend, in good spirits, and is incredibly thankful to the doctors, nurses and staff providing him with excellent care.”

Clinton had quadruple bypass heart surgery in 2004. In 2010, doctors inserted a stent into one of Clinton’s coronary arteries.

A Big Four check in

As the 117th Congress rolls into mid-October, we thought it would be a good time to look at the “Big 4” leaders and what they need to do in the coming days and weeks.

Overall, this a hugely important period for President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. All three of them had a difficult summer — to put it mildly — and the fall doesn’t look any easier. Democrats are bogged down in a House-vs.-Senate, moderates-vs.-progressives battle over their multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package. They’ve been unable to reach an agreement even on a topline number despite several weeks of negotiations. White House officials began to openly show their eagerness in wrapping up the negotiations, signaling that Biden is “ready to get this done.”

Biden also wants the House to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill by Oct. 31, the deadline Pelosi has set for that vote. But the votes aren’t there to pass it yet. So party leaders have a lot of work to do.

Let’s get into it.

→ Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Pelosi is in deal mode, you can see it, but the rest of her party isn’t there yet. Pelosi has been trying to mediate a compromise between her moderate and progressive factions. She’s been upping the pressure on both groups, urging them to find common ground. It hasn’t worked so far. But, to be fair to Pelosi, it never works until the moment it does. 

Another of Pelosi’s problems is Schumer and his fellow Senate Democrats. Pelosi wasn’t aware of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) July 28 letter to Biden setting an $1.5 trillion ceiling for the reconciliation package until it was disclosed in late September, two months later. Pelosi reminds reporters all the time that it’s only been a few weeks since she knew of the $1.5 trillion ceiling. Never mind that Manchin had said as much publicly — Pelosi wants you to know that she was not a party to the Manchin-Schumer deal.

And Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and other Senate Democrats are refusing to back down on their push to expand Medicare coverage for dental, vision and health programs, even when House Democrats insist they don’t have the votes to pass it. House Democrats instead want to expand Medicaid and make Obamacare subsidies permanent.

Pelosi gave an interview to KQED in San Francisco this week in which she said that one of the big revenue Democratic priorities — allowing Medicare to negotiate on prescription drug costs — needs to be pared back. This is a potential $700 billion revenue stream for Democrats, but there’s stiff opposition in some pockets of the caucus to this plan.

“We’re still making that fight,” Pelosi said in a live event. “I’m not even sure we’ll get it in this bill. We’ll get something of that, but it won’t be the complete package that many of us have been fighting for [for] a long time.”

That’s because Pelosi is a realist. She knows something is better than nothing. She’s also keenly aware that the clock is ticking and an agreement has to be reached very soon. It will take weeks to turn any bicameral deal into actual legislative text, and there undoubtedly will be more haggling along the way. Getting a reconciliation package through Congress by Thanksgiving would be an achievement at this point; Christmas feels more doable. And Democrats will be forced to respond to the new debt limit and government funding deadlines by that point. 

→ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: As we’ve said since the start of the year, no one on Capitol Hill has a tougher job than the New York Democrat, who is up for reelection himself in 2022.

It’s been nearly 70 years since the Senate was evenly split between the two parties for this long. The famous 50-50 split in 2001, for instance, only lasted for five months until the late Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the GOP, putting Democrats in charge. Schumer is sailing — or white water rafting — in uncharted waters.

And there’s zero margin for error. Even getting a simple majority means Schumer has to steer a line between Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who are openly warring with one another. Schumer is like a juggler who can’t slow down even for one moment, lest everything come crashing down to the floor. 

Schumer, though, faces criticism from House Democrats because he doesn’t say no to any of his senators. And they’re still angry over that Manchin letter, which shocked them.

Manchin, for his part, was upset by Schumer’s attack on Republicans following last week’s debt limit vote. So Schumer can’t win there either.

Schumer’s cajoling approach has worked up until now. He’s in constant contact with his Senate colleagues, speaking to as many as 15 or 20 senators in any single day. And he’s working very closely on the reconciliation package with White House officials, who’ve been aware of the policy positions of both Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) for months. This is also part of Schumer’s push — he needs Biden to help close a deal with Manchin, Sinema and progressives. Biden, in turn, needs Schumer to make it happen on the floor. 

The Coverage: CNN: “Manchin and Sinema detail key disagreements over Biden agenda,” by Manu Raju

→ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: The White House seems to be heartened by McConnell’s behavior during the last debt-limit debate, and believes he’ll help the Democrats again. But McConnell made his position clear moving forward in a letter to and conversation with President Joe Biden last week: the Kentucky Republican did what he had to on raising the debt limit this time, but from here on out, Democrats are on their own. They either include a debt-limit increase in a reconciliation package, which they can then pass without GOP votes, or face a debt default. It’s up to them. We’re not sure that’s sunk in at 1600 Pennsylvania, but we’ll see. 

McConnell got some bruises during the debt-limit fight. Some Republicans, including Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), were openly critical of his strategy. He had to struggle to come up with enough votes to overcome a GOP filibuster, although there wasn’t any real doubt that he’d get there in the end.

Yet even with the complaints — and repeated calls for his replacement by former President Donald Trump — McConnell remains firmly in charge of his conference. His strategic sense is better than anyone else in his party, and he’s proven that he won’t wilt under the glare of the national spotlight. 

Remember: Not one single Republican senator has said McConnell should be replaced. 

→ House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: Not to be too cynical about it, but McCarthy’s job is simple compared to what the other three party leaders are facing right now. Here’s what McCarthy will be focused on: 1) Oppose anything that Pelosi, Biden and the Democrats are in favor of at all times. If Pelosi says it’s a sunny day, then McCarthy will get out his umbrella; 2) Raise as much money as he can for his challengers and incumbents. McCarthy needs to collect as many political chits as he can for a potential speaker vote on the House floor in Jan. 2023; 3) He will want to get his lawyers to fight any subpoenas that could come his way from the Jan. 6 select committee; 4) Pretend he’s unaware of any controversy involving Trump, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) or anyone other Republican. That’s it. ​

What 2022 may look like

We wrote yesterday about the Virginia gubernatorial race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin and how it could impact business and politics in Washington. Here are a few examples of the nationalization of this race. We thought these ads — courtesy AdImpact — were interesting.

1) This is paid for by the AB Foundation, which is linked to the Democratic group American Bridge. It seeks to tie Youngkin to former President Donald Trump. The ad says that Youngkin’s rejection of mask mandates is an appeal to the former president. And it knocks Youngkin for sending his kids to Georgetown Prep in Bethesda, accusing the wealthy former investment firm CEO of playing by his own rules, also like Trump.

2) McAuliffe, meanwhile, is also running an ad with a national tinge. He has footage of Youngkin from their last debate saying he doesn’t support the right to an abortion being included in Virginia’s state constitution. The hook in the ad is that the Supreme Court may knock down Roe v. Wade, and Youngkin wants to outlaw abortion.

3) Youngkin is running an ad of own showing McAuliffe saying he doesn’t want parents involved in education. Schools have become a huge issue in the race, and Youngkin pounced on this McAuliffe line from one of their debates.

The Coverage: NYT’s Jonathan Martin in Richmond: “Terry McAuliffe’s Other Obstacle in Virginia Race: Democrats’ Apathy”

The Money Game

→ Sen. Raphael Warnock raised a stunning $9.5 million last quarter. AJC’s Greg Bluestein with the scoop. 

→ Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) raised $562,355 — a solid quarter — and has $3.3 million on hand. He could lose his seat in redistricting.

→ Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) — up for re-election — raised $1.6 million and has $5.6 million on hand. 

→ The retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) still has $9.6 million on hand.

→ Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) raised $1.5 million and has $7.9 million on hand.

→ Another impressive quarter for a House Republican. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) raised $907,194.

JOIN OUR TEAM

We’re hiring!

Punchbowl News is growing and we’re looking for a Community Manager to join our team! Our community manager will lead all community building efforts — how we grow and engage the Punchbowl News audience. We’re looking for somebody who can lead the charge as we continue to build an incredibly engaged news community

If you know somebody great, — email accounts@punchbowl.news or apply below.

FRONTS

Jan. 6 committee out front this AM

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews where he’ll fly to Bradley Airport in Connecticut. He arrives at 12:20 p.m. and goes straight to Hartford.

1:45 p.m.: Biden will speak about his agenda and “the importance of investing in child care to keep costs down for working families.”

2:35 p.m.: Biden will leave Hartford for Storrs, where he’ll arrive at 2:50 p.m..

4 p.m.: Biden will speak at the opening of the Dodd Center for Human Rights at the University of Connecticut. 

5 p.m.: Biden will leave UConn for Bradley to fly back to D.C. He’ll arrive at Andrews at 6:40 p.m. and at the White House at 7 p.m.

Vice President Kamala Harris is in Los Angeles with nothing on her schedule.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Panel Wary of Expanding Supreme Court, but Open to Term Limits,” by Adam Liptak

→ “F.D.A. Panel Recommends Booster for Many Moderna Vaccine Recipients,” by Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland

 → “F.B.I. Official Fired Under Trump Wins Back His Pension,” by Adam Goldman

WaPo

→ “Trump asserts his dominance inside GOP, pushing Republicans to embrace his false claims of fraud,” by Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer

→ “Southern Baptist leader Ronnie Floyd resigns after internal fight over sex abuse investigation,” by Sarah Pulliam Bailey

WSJ

→ “Former Boeing Pilot Indicted in Probe of 737 MAX Crashes,” by Andrew Tangel and Dave Michaels

→ WSJ Editorial Board: “Donald Trump’s Hostage Politics”

AP

→ “Court again lets Texas continue banning most abortions,” by Paul J. Weber in Austin, Texas

→ “Jill Biden out to flex political muscle in governors’ races,” by Will Weissert

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images