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PRESENTED BYBY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN THE TOPHappy Wednesday morning. You gotta give them this — the White House finally has some momentum in its effort to pull a reconciliation framework together. How fast can it happen? Maybe they can get it done this week, but next week seems much more likely. Of course, this could all stall. Everything is very fluid. It does seem reasonable to believe Democrats can agree on a reconciliation framework before President Joe Biden heads to Italy and Scotland in 11 days. That’s a change from where things stood heading into this week, a crucial one for both the White House and party leaders on the Hill. Biden had some good meetings with House Democrats Tuesday, and for the first time in a while — weeks or months really — there’s some renewed optimism in Democratic ranks. It’s amazing what some TLC from the president can do. And if Democrats get a reconciliation framework agreed upon, and the feelings stay positive, maybe the House can pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill soon too. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set an Oct. 31 date for that vote, and it’s critical for moderates that it happen. Last night in our PM edition, we scooped much of what Biden told House Democrats in their visits to the White House — become a member so you get the PM edition! Caveat: The White House wants you to know that what we are about to lay out is not the full package — and we acknowledge that, White House! But these are some of the major planks, and what Biden is highlighting to the Democrats he’s met with. → Biden reiterated that he is seeking a bill between $1.9 trillion and $2.2 trillion. The president repeatedly used $2 trillion “as shorthand” for the topline number. Sources involved in the meeting said the "realistic target" is somewhere in the $1.75 trillion to $1.95 trillion range. → Biden’s goal — as we stated above — is to secure a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and a “public agreement” from Democrats on the contours of the reconciliation package before he travels abroad to Italy and Scotland on Oct. 30. Remember: an infrastructure vote is contingent upon them getting a solid reconciliation framework in place. → Biden conceded that the climate portion of the bill isn’t locked down, but the president is standing by his goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030. In fact, the White House envisions this as the largest portion of the bill. Several House Democrats told us the administration will try to accomplish through administrative action what they’re blocked from doing legislatively by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). → There was no discussion of a carbon tax, which no one involved in the talks believes will be in this bill. → Here’s another critical point on health care — the White House and Democratic leaders are trying to bridge the divide between moderates and progressives, the House and Senate, by giving everyone a little bit of what they want on Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare. Will it work? TBD. But this is how they’re looking to resolve the policy fights in this key area. → Medicare expansion — a huge issue for progressives — is in the package but isn’t solved yet. There is talk about a “pilot program” for expanded dental coverage. → Biden said the Affordable Care Act subsidies he is seeking would cost $180 billion for three years. House Democrats had wanted to make these permanent. → The bill will also include health-care coverage gap closure. → Child care, pre-K and home based health care will be the biggest portion aside from climate provisions. CNN’s Manu Raju reported home health care would be "likely less" than $250 billion. These areas are under discussion, but right now, the universal pre-K provision remains intact. → The Child Tax Credit, as currently envisioned, would remain in place for between one and two years. There was no discussion of means testing. In fact, full refundability for the credit was mentioned. → Paid Family Leave: Four weeks of paid leave, means tested at $100,000. This is also under discussion and is “fluid,” one source familiar with the talks said. → $200 billion for public housing. → Free community college is out. Biden mentioned “tuition supplements” for community college, and there will be expansion of Pell Grants. → Biden also said he’s continuing to work on the immigration portion of the bill, but it’s a big challenge to get it into the package because of the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling that it would violate the Byrd Rule. → There are also "significant investments" in racial equity programs. → A fix to caps on state-and-local tax deductibility (SALT) hasn’t yet to be resolved. Much of the focus in the negotiations has been spent talking about spending provisions, not revenue. Pro-SALT fix lawmakers are adamant that this is something Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will go to bat on. Furthermore, there are enough people demanding SALT that they need to find a fix to pass the reconciliation bill. The biggest outstanding challenge is bridging the gap on Medicare expansion. This is, in essence, a battle between Manchin and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). That’s why everyone is trying to bring Manchin and Sanders closer together — so they begin to trust each other more and come to a deal on their differences over Medicare expansion. At least that’s the idea anyway, via some Democrats involved in the talks. We caught up with many of the House and Senate Democrats who went to the White House, and here’s a quick snapshot of their thoughts. → Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.): “Medicare, Medicaid and ACA are all on the table… I think the thing we feel really good about it is that all of our [the Congressional Progressive Caucus] five priorities are very much still at work … I spent an hour-and-a-half with the president [Monday], just the two of us, and then this meeting was two hours with our colleagues… I do feel like we’re getting closer. I think we’re all working really hard to try to get this done.” → Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) on Biden: “I call him the ‘Mediator in Chief.’ … One of the things I did say is we need to have more clarity on the language, the amounts, and the commitment, then we can take a little bit more risks… It’s going to be touch-and-go. But the one thing I was mentioning that I walk away with is that the president is committed, trying to get this done as soon as possible. And I was kind of surprised by that.” → Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.): “I gotta admit: as a guy who traveled three states for Bernie Sanders, I’m impressed. … He does most of his stuff behind the scenes. He only brings something to the public when he has to bring it to a public fight.” → Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.): “I think there are a number of us that would prefer to do fewer things for a longer period of time, but ultimately kind of where it landed, I think the [Congressional] Progressive Caucus made the decision they want to do more things for a shorter period of time.” → Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.): “Part of the challenge here is that we’ve been given this Senate infrastructure bill, and it has a bunch of concessions to the fossil-fuel industry baked into it. So if we don’t get these good parts that actually reduce emissions, we would be going to Glasgow while taking a step backward. And that’s just not what we need at this moment… I think Sen. Manchin is driving a really hard bargain, and we have to get to ‘Yes.’” → Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.): “I thought today’s meeting really moved the ball forward… What’s clear coming out of this is we recognize the importance of voting on the bipartisan infrastructure bill as quickly as quickly as possible. We need to get shovels in the ground and get to work. And that we must move forward in reconciliation. I thought, in that regard, it was a very productive conversation on both scores.” → Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.): “The key is I think we’re making progress. I think we’re making really good progress, better progress than I thought we were making. Because I think I told one of you that nothing has happened in the last 10 days. I think [Biden] has done a lot in the last 10 days, I just wasn’t aware of it. So I think we’re getting to a point where we can move pretty well. We’re not where we need to be yet, but we’re getting pretty close.” The Coverage: → WaPo: “Biden tells Democrats that package of up to $1.9 trillion should be new target of talks," by Tony Romm, Marianna Sotomayor, Seung Min Kim and Jeff Stein → WSJ: “Biden Identifies Cuts to Social Policy and Climate Bill,” by Andrew Duehren, Andrew Restuccia and Kristina Peterson → NYT: “Democrats, Scaling Back Budget Bill, Press for Compromise by Week’s End,” by Emily Cochrane → Politico: “Dems scramble for climate Plan C as Manchin dashes their dreams,” by Burgess Everett and Anthony Adranga → Bloomberg: "Democrats Move to Break Stalemate on Biden Plan by Scaling Back,” by Laura Davison, Emily Wilkins and Erik Wasson PRESENTED BY EXXONMOBIL Over the past 30 years, ExxonMobil has captured more man-made CO2 than any other company. Now we’re collaborating with others in industry to make an even bigger impact, and help society reach its net-zero ambitions. We’re one of 11 companies that have expressed interest in advancing carbon capture and storage technology in the Houston industrial area, setting out to remove about 100 million metric tons of C02 per year by 2040. INTRODUCING…THE WORKFORCE The Workforce is here! Punchbowl News’ newest editorial product, The Workforce, launches today! We’ll be profiling four leaders over the next two months who are redefining the future of the workforce. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), Chair of the Education and Labor Committee, headlines our first profile. Scott has been involved in workforce issues since he entered public office as a member of the Virginia House of Delegates in 1977. Job creation and education have been central to his work to try to provide training to fill the workforce needs of the future. As the Biden administration looks to inject tens of billions of dollars into transforming America’s workforce for the next generation, Scott has been at the forefront of that effort on Capitol Hill. Read, watch, and share The Workforce here! We can’t wait to hear what you think. Thank you to Walmart for partnering with us to create this product. INSIDE GOP LEADERSHIP How McCarthy plans to play this week Of course, for every action, there’s an equal reaction. And as Democrats press ahead on their plan to get a reconciliation framework this week, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will continue his political attack on the package. McCarthy will use a closed-door GOP meeting this morning to try to define the reconciliation bill for Republicans, who are going to uniformly oppose this bill. McCarthy is set to focus on the following policies in the Democrats’ plan: → Immigration changes → New IRS rules → Clean energy provisions — they will call this the “home heating tax” → Health care changes → Corporate tax hike — which they will call the “Made in America tax” A House GOP aide: “Members will focus communications efforts on each policy for each day – primarily through roundtable conversations hosted by McCarthy’s office with Americans most impacted by the bill. PRESENTED BY EXXONMOBIL ExxonMobil is advancing climate solutions like carbon capture and storage to help create a lower-carbon energy future. BIDEN’S NEXT CHALLENGE Senate Democrats wrestle with Jay Powell’s future President Joe Biden hasn’t given any clue yet whether he’ll nominate Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell to a second term running the world’s most important central bank. But if Biden does, it’s not at all clear at this point that Powell could even win support from a majority of Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee, which shows how difficult a path it is — both for Powell and the White House. Let’s be clear — there’s very few Senate voices outright calling for Powell’s ouster. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) remains his most prominent critic, but she’s been consistent on that. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also remains a supporter, which is key for Powell. Yet Powell’s support is “soft,” as one Democratic leadership aide put it, at least until Biden maks clear his intentions. This is a far cry from 2018, when Powell was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee by a 22-1 vote. Only Warren opposed his nomination inside the committee at that point, and he sailed through the full Senate by a 84-13 vote in February 2018. While Powell earned high marks for his handling of the U.S. economy during the Covid-19 pandemic, progressive Democrats remain critical of him, and they’d like to see Biden put someone else in there. There’s also been heavy criticism of Powell and the Fed leadership more broadly over a trading scandal among Fed officials, which led to the resignations of regional presidents of the Dallas and Boston banks. Powell himself sold between $1 million and $5 million of stock from his personal account on Oct. 1, 2020. There’s no allegation that Powell violated any ethical regulations, yet the timing of this revelation hurts him politically. Republicans remain broadly supportive of Powell, and he could win a second term based on backing from GOP senators and enough Democrats. Yet would Biden do that in the face of such strong opposition from progressives? Too soon to tell, but Powell’s term is up in February, so this decision is under a lot of scrutiny. We talked to every Democrat on the Banking Committee, minus Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), on how they’re feeling about Powell right now and his leadership of the Fed. → Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): “I was really upset with what I saw from the Dallas and Boston Fed. They need to take these jobs seriously. These are public service jobs, not opportunities to game the system. I don’t think Powell did any of that. But I think they’ve got to have specific rules and they’ve got to be enforced. The administrative chair of the Fed … needs to be empowered to do that.” → Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.): “Chairman Powell has done a good job. He’s been given a very complicated situation with the pandemic. The Fed is responding appropriately. You know, I’ll leave it up to the president … My thoughts are that if there is this systematic problem in the Federal Reserve, and using insider information and other knowledge for self aggrandizement, and Chairman Powell was aware of it, or, you know, failed to take steps when he heard about it, then that’s something that you can judge him on. It would be a demerit.” → Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): “I have made my concerns known publicly and privately. … I am very concerned about his record on regulation, and the ethics violations that have occurred.” → Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.): “There has to be faith in the Federal Reserve system and those who run it. And when people are doing insider trading, that erodes the faith.” Menendez had no position yet on a second term for Powell. → Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.): “I’m going to be making a comment on that in another day or two.” → Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.): “I’m waiting to see what the administration decides. … I’m reviewing all the material.” → Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.): “I am going to wait and see if he is nominated. And then I will sit and meet with him and ask him questions.” → Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.): “I’ll wait to see what the president does.” → Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.): “I’ve had conversations with Chairman Powell and I was encouraged by my conversations with him … He indicated that, so [the Fed] had folks engaged in trading. If they were able to do that and it’s inside the rules, then there’s something wrong with the rules.” → Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.): “No comment.” → Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.): “I like him.” OMB CHECK IN Shalanda Young planning for maternity leave Shalanda Young, the acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, is expecting a baby in the coming weeks, and she will pass off responsibilities to her deputy while on maternity leave. “Acting Director Young will be taking time away from the office to be with her daughter after she’s born in the next few weeks,” an OMB spokesperson said. “During that period, she will delegate day-to-day responsibilities to Deputy Director for Management Jason Miller while she continues to hold the position of Acting Director.” Young was named acting director when the Biden administration had to pull the nomination of Neera Tanden, who ran into heavy opposition from Democrats on Capitol Hill. House Democratic leadership publicly pressed President Joe Biden to nominate Young to run OMB full time, but the administration has resisted. Young has the support of a wide range of senators, and as a former top aide on the House Appropriations Committee, Young is an expert on the federal budget. Typically, the administration needs to replace an acting director of an agency within 300 days under the Federal Vacancy Reform Act. But the administration points out that, “OMB’s organic statute authorizes the Deputy Director to serve as Acting Director when the office of Director is vacant, and the FVRA’s time limits do not apply to such Acting service.” FRONTS MOMENTS 8:45 a.m.: The Covid-19 response team will brief. 9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing. 10 a.m.: House GOP leaders will hold a news conference after their meeting this morning. 10:15 a.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries will hold a post-Dem meeting news conference. 3:05 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews, where he’ll fly to Scranton. Jen Psaki will gaggle on Air Force One. 5:15 p.m.: Biden will speak about the infrastructure and reconciliation bills at the Electric City Trolley Museum in Scranton. 7:05 p.m.: Biden will leave Scranton for Andrews. He’s slated back to the White House at 8:10 p.m.. CLIP FILE NYT → “Justice Breyer turns away a request to block Maine’s vaccine mandate,” by Adam Liptak: “ Justice Stephen G. Breyer on Tuesday turned away a request from health care workers in Maine who had asked the Supreme Court to block a state vaccine mandate based on their religious objections while their legal challenge moved forward. “Justice Breyer did not ask for a response to the workers’ application or refer it to the full Supreme Court. He said the workers could return to the Supreme Court after the federal appeals court rules on their appeal or if that court does not issue a decision by Oct. 29. That is the date on which the state has said it will start enforcing the requirement.” → “Trump’s Pentagon Chief Quashed Idea to Send 250,000 Troops to the Border,” by David Sanger, Michael Shear and Eric Schmitt WaPo → “Afghanistan’s war is over, but the Taliban faces a new hurdle: Enforcing the law — and protecting Afghans from ISIS,” by Sudarsan Raghavan in Kabul → “Prolonged disruption could be a drag on pandemic recovery for Metro and D.C. region, leaders say,” by Ian Duncan and Justin George → “In secret vaccine contracts with governments, Pfizer took hard line in push for profit, report says,” by Adam Taylor WSJ → “Democrats Try to Salvage IRS Bank-Account Reporting With Scaled-Back Plan,” by Rich Rubin and Orla McCaffrey → “Treasury Seeks More Money for Illicit-Finance Oversight, Including Crypto and Cybercrime,” by Mengqi Sun and Ian Talley → “Facebook Settles With U.S. Government Over Improperly Reserving Jobs for Immigrants,” by Megan Brobowsky AP → “Jan. 6 panel votes to hold Steve Bannon in contempt,” by Mary Clare Jalonick and Farnoush Amiri THE ROAD TO RECOVERY SERIES Punchbowl News sits down with Sen. Joni Ernst for Road to Recovery series Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) joined us for our final in-person editorial event as part of The Road to Recovery series at The Roost on Capitol Hill yesterday morning. The conversation focused on the Senate’s legislative agenda and the uneven recovery of women small business owners from the Covid recession. Ernst discussed upcoming opportunities for bipartisanship in the Senate, the National Defense Authorization Act process and why she supports the filibuster. She also predicted that Republicans will take the Senate in 2022. A big thank you to Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices for partnering with us to bring this series to life. Make sure to check out the full event video below and catch up on our past two events with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and CBC Chair Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio). PRESENTED BY EXXONMOBIL Many climate experts around the world agree that carbon capture and storage is a critical technology to help enable a lower-carbon future. That’s why, at ExxonMobil, we’re advancing readily available climate solutions like carbon capture and storage to help reduce emissions at scale and advance climate solutions. We’re one of 11 companies that have expressed interest in advancing CCS technology in the Houston industrial area. Together, the 11 companies believe we could capture and store about 100 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 2040 from the Houston industrial area. That’s equivalent to taking more than 20 million cars off the road today. With the appropriate public and government support, we believe we could have a big impact, sooner than later. This collaborative effort is just one way ExxonMobil is working to advance climate solutions. Enjoying Punchbowl News AM? Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat! Your referral link is: Or share via You currently have: 0 referrals
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