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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Monday morning! Washington will be buzzing this week. Congress is in session before heading out next week for Thanksgiving (supposedly.) A White House source said the other day that it’s tough to get things done when Congress only works 50% of the time. Fair point.

President Joe Biden will have his a big moment today — on the 299th day of his presidency. Biden will sign the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill at the White House at 3 p.m. It’s a victory for a president and a Democratic Party that truly needs one.

But in order to notch the full “W,” Biden needs to strap in and prepare for the mess that is the Build Back Better Act. There will be several weeks more of this drama. We still may be talking about this legislation in January, in fact.

Two big issues on BBB today for House Democrats — 1) Congressional Budget Office scoring and 2) the rule for floor debate on the legislation.

Here’s what our reporting tells us: House Democratic leadership expects CBO to provide an update today on the timetable for releasing its full evaluation of BBB. Remember — the CBO has released assessments from six committees for the BBB, but it has not weighed in on the major portions of the package. That’s the Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Labor and Education titles. Those assessments will be critical for moderates. 

We hear that some of the CBO analysis may not be ready until Thursday or later, which could push a BBB vote to the weekend or even to next week. 

The moderate gang — led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) — committed to a vote this week and sources tell us they see no reason for a delay at this point.

Progressives, meanwhile, don’t want to hear any talk about delay. Both they and Speaker Nancy Pelosi want a BBB vote this week. “@POTUS has shown tremendous leadership on getting his Build Back Better Act to this important moment. Time to pass it without delay. The American people are waiting,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, tweeted on Sunday night.

On the rule — Democrats may need to pass a new rule for BBB, which means a floor vote. This is because of technical issues related to the “Byrd Bath” and privilege concerns for this $1.75 trillion-plus reconciliation package if and when it reaches the Senate. In a “Dear Colleague” letter yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer discussed these issues, including the need for a “privilege scrub”:

“This process is necessary to ensure the House legislation is in compliance with Senate reconciliation rules and the instructions in the budget resolution, and thereby maintains its status as ‘privileged’ legislation in the Senate. We are aiming to finish that work this week. Additionally, the separate process of holding “Byrd Bath” meetings with the Senate Parliamentarian will begin this week.”

In his “Dear Colleague,” Schumer also noted that the Senate cannot complete the “Byrd Bath” until CBO finishes its analysis.

House Democratic leaders don’t anticipate any problem with another rule vote, but that’s provided all the concerns from the moderate and progressive factions in the House Democratic Caucus have been answered.

The bottom line is this — We still expect a BBB vote in the House this week. But we’re going to interpret “this week” very loosely to include the weekend. There’s a possibility that it could drag into early next week. However, the need to get home for Thanksgiving will clarify everyone’s minds.

Schumer and the Senate schedule

Let’s talk for a minute about the Senate schedule and what Schumer announced yesterday.

In addition to the discussion on BBB timing, Schumer said the Senate will take up the National Defense Authorization Act this week. This debate will include lots of focus on Afghanistan, China, vaccine mandates, women in the draft, overall Pentagon spending and other key defense issues. One of the high-profile amendment votes will be on repealing the 2002 Iraq AUMF, which Schumer is backing. All of this is a big deal, and we’re not sure it’ll get finished this week. We’ll see. Maybe there will be a Thanksgiving miracle.

Schumer also wants to attach the United States Innovation and Competition Act to the NDAA, something we first floated last month. USICA is a major Senate-passed bill to increase U.S. technology and high-tech manufacturing competitiveness with China. This is a big Schumer priority. He’s trying to break a logjam with the House, which has its own dramatically different version of the legislation. By adding it to the NDAA, Schumer is hoping to force some action.

There’s one more big topic — government funding. Schumer acknowledged that there isn’t going to be any deal on government funding by the Dec. 3 deadline, so Congress will need to pass a short-term continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown. But there’s still some confusion on how long that CR will last. Democrats want to extend it until around Christmas, hoping they can get a deal by then on all the appropriations bills. However, Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee — who wants more Pentagon spending — is already talking about a “February or March” CR. Shelby is doing that to pressure Democrats, but it’s clear the two sides aren’t close to a deal yet.

Remember: Government funding runs out in 18 days. Congress is out next week. They’re scheduled to return Nov. 29 — a Monday — and funding runs out that Friday. 

Tomorrow: Anna will be interviewing Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. EST about the challenges facing rural communities. Afterwards, she’ll be joined by former Senator and One Country Project Founder Heidi Heitkamp for a fireside chat. RSVP here!

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THE DEBT LIMIT

So what’s the new debt limit deadline?

When President Joe Biden signs the bipartisan infrastructure bill into law today, he’s going to get a signature political win. But enacting the legislation will have an impact on the debt limit as well. And we expect to hear from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week on the issue.

The Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act directs the Treasury Department to transfer $118 billion to the Highway Trust Fund. That money will be invested in non-marketable securities. This process generally takes about a month to complete once a bill it’s enacted.

Now remember, Congress approved a $480 billion increase in the debt limit in mid-October, which Yellen has publicly stated raised the debt limit through Dec. 3. However, analysts inside and outside the federal government believed the real deadline for hitting the debt limit was sometime in January or even February, although Yellen had never formally said that.

Yet signing the bipartisan infrastructure bill into law will impact that “X date.” Which is why we expect Yellen to provide some new guidance to congressional leaders this week.

We also expect there will be a lot of discussion about this in the House Democratic leadership during the next couple days, but the issue is complicated. Stay with us here.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has asserted that Democrats must handle this debt limit issue on their own, meaning through reconciliation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer have expressed some openness to doing this. And the Build Back Better Act is a reconciliation package, meaning it could be added to that legislation, although the process is complex.

However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats don’t want to do that. They’ve already got to deal with BBB and one vote-a-rama.

Schumer refused to relent on this issue in October, and McConnell — fearing a default — backed down, agreeing to extend the deadline, despite criticism from some GOP senators. Democrats — and some Republicans — believe McConnell will back down again, although we’re not sure at all that we’d go along with that read of the Kentucky Republican.

So all this is to say that the debt limit will be back on the front burner this week after a brief interlude. You’re welcome.

SNEAK PEEK

Our third installment of The Workforce is going live on Wednesday. It features Guild Education CEO and co-founder Rachel Carlson. She spoke about how employers can best provide education as a benefit to their employees and the need for new definitions of success for post-secondary education. Check back Wednesday for more.

Can’t wait until Wednesday? Check out our first two profiles on Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. 

PRESSURE

AAN drops another $2 million on BBB ads

News: The American Action Network, the House GOP-leadership aligned outside group, is dropping $2 million for TV ads targeting nine House Democrats, seeking to ding them on the Build Back Better vote. 

The nine House Democrats who will get hit by ads are: Reps. Dan Kildee (Mich.), Ed Perlmutter (Colo.), Josh Harder (Calif.), Chris Pappas (N.H.), Tom Malinowski (N.J.), Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Andy Kim (N.J.), Elaine Luria (Va.) and Abigail Spanberger (Va.). 

House watchers note: Perlmutter and Kildee are now on AAN’s radar. Perlmutter routinely wins with more than 55% of the vote. Kildee won by 13 points with 54% of the vote in 2020.

Here’s the Kildee spot.

Inflation is the centerpiece of the GOP messaging at the moment, and it’s a potent political attack. Things cost a lot more this year and Democrats are in charge — that’s all Republicans are saying. You should expect that this will continue straight throughout 2022 until Election Day.

RUH ROH

Jon Karl gets Trump to talk McCarthy

ABC’s Jon Karl has a new book out this week: “Betrayal: The Final Act of the Trump Show.” Buy it. It will be on sale tomorrow.

One of the nuggets that the Punchbowl News community might be interested in is former President Donald Trump talking about House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Trump said this about the two GOP leaders: “If McConnell and McCarthy fought harder, okay, you could have a Republican president right now, and now they don’t have anything.”  

It’s no surprise that Trump complained about the leaders over his loss in 2020. But this is why the former president remains a wild card for McCarthy. The California Republican needs Trump to be at least neutral in his quest to become the speaker.

Trump also complained that “Kevin” wasn’t treating Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene properly: “She’s been a very good supporter of mine, and I’m a supporter of hers. And I don’t think Kevin has treated her properly,” Trump said.

Lots of people have opinions, and we tend to view most of Trump’s musings as discordant and unsatisfying. But this book looks like it will be fascinating — and, furthermore, what Trump says about McCarthy matters. A huge chunk of the House GOP remains enthralled by the defeated former president. Trump is targeting those who backed his impeachment or voted for bipartisan deals with Democrats. And, as we said, Trump will certainly have views about McCarthy’s quest to be speaker.

2022

Republicans are crushing the generic ballot

The new Washington Post/ABC poll is a disaster for House Democrats. 51% of registered voters say they’d support Republicans if the election was held today. 41% say they’d support Democrats. As ABC’s Rick Klein points out, that’s the biggest lead for the GOP in 40 years. Democrats have an inherent advantage on the generic ballot. Traditionally, if Republicans are tied on the generic, it means they have a pretty substantial electoral advantage. So for the GOP to have a lead like this is astounding. 

The problem for Republicans is House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy keeps setting sky-high expectations for how many seats they’re going to win. He said recently that the GOP could pick up more than the 63 seats they won in 2010. If McCarthy wins 35 seats, it would represent the largest House GOP majority since 1929, when Republicans had 270 seats.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

10 a.m.: Sen. Pat Leahy (D) will hold a news conference in Montpelier, Vt., the state capitol. Leahy hasn’t announced whether he’s running for reelection yet, so there’s a lot of interest here.

11:20 a.m.: Biden will participate in the Tribal Nations Summit.

1:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

3 p.m.: Biden will sign the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill into law.

7:45 p.m.: Biden will meet virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Biden’s week: Tuesday: Biden will travel to Woodstock, N.H. to visit the NH 175 bridge and talk about the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Wednesday: Biden will travel to Detroit to the GM Factory ZERO plant to talk about the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Thursday: Biden will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Biden will host the North American Leaders Summit. Friday: Biden will pardon the Thanksgiving turkeys.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Republicans Gain Heavy House Edge in 2022 as Gerrymandered Maps Emerge,” by Reid J. Epstein and Nick Corasaniti

→ “Biden Names Mitch Landrieu to Oversee Infrastructure Spending,” by Michael Shear and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

WaPo

→ “Republicans seek a U.S. Senate takeover in 2022 but struggle over candidates,” by Michael Scherer and Mike DeBonis

→ “In wake of Bannon indictment, Republicans warn of payback,” by Amy B Wang

WSJ

→ “Trumps Selling Prized Washington, D.C., Hotel for $375 Million,” by Craig Karmin

AP

→ "Ex-US diplomat says Myanmar frees jailed American journalist”

→ “Biden’s $1T infrastructure bill historic, not transformative,” by Josh Boak

Politico

→ “McConnell sought to disinvite Trump from Biden’s inaugural,” by Meridith McGraw

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images