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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Thursday morning.

House Democratic leaders are increasingly optimistic about their chances for passing the massive $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Act. But the question remains as to whether that happens today or tomorrow. We still think Friday is more likely, but the Thanksgiving recess is looming large, and lawmakers want to get out of town as quickly as possible.

What is clear is that the House will begin the debate on BBB today, kicking off the most important stretch of Joe Biden’s presidency so far. It’s also a critical time for House Democratic leaders. If there’s any chance of preserving their majority in 2022, House Democrats have to get BBB passed and over to the Senate. They will then deal with whatever is sent back their way. 

So let’s recap where things stand. CBO released its analysis of the Education and Labor Committee title for BBB on Thursday night. This is a big deal. That title, along with the Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means titles, are the heart of the BBB package and are being scrutinized very closely by Democratic moderates, who want to see if the CBO estimates match up with preliminary White House revenue and spending projections.

If the Energy and Commerce and Ways Means titles become available today, and they’re in line with Democrats’ expectations, the House could vote on BBB late tonight. But again, this is just speculation at this point. CBO’s deadline for completing its work is Friday.

According to CBO, the Democrats’ plan for universal preschool for three and four-year-olds will cost $109 billion during the 2022 to 2031 period. And the proposal for capping child care costs for families making $300,000 or less has a $273 billion price tag. Democrats had estimated these two high-profile initiatives would cost a combined $390 billion. That means the cost of the programs came in at more than $8 billion lower than expected.

Other important Education and Labor Committee provisions include expanded Pell Grants for college students; a new “Civilian Climate Corps” to help address climate change; and providing more funding for child nutrition programs.

Education and Labor Committee Chair Bobby Scott (D-Va.) was clearly pleased by the CBO findings. “This proposal will make child care affordable for families, secure universal preschool, help more students access healthy school meals, lower the cost of life-saving prescription drugs, and expand opportunities by investing in higher education and high-quality job training programs,” Scott said in a statement.

Republicans, of course, said CBO had actually found that BBB cost far more than Democrats claimed. 

“The CBO report has confirmed what we already expected — Democrats have been hiding the true cost of this monstrosity,” said Rep. Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, the top Republican on Education and Labor. “The American people are concerned about the national debt, our exploding federal deficit, and skyrocketing inflation. Yet Democrats are pushing forward, full stream ahead — disastrous consequences be damned.”

The other outstanding issue for BBB is completion of the “Byrd bath” and “privilege scrub” of the House bill. Senate parliamentarians are reviewing the proposed legislation to see if it complies with the Senate’s hugely complex Byrd Rule, which controls consideration of reconciliation bills.

Any needed changes will be incorporated into a managers’ amendment for BBB. House Democrats are hoping this amendment will be finished by around midday, according to several Democratic aides.

The bottom line is this — the House Democratic leadership and White House are feeling good heading into today. The moderates remain solid until now. But this whole process has been fraught with delays and unforeseen problems, so no one is taking anything for granted at this point.

THE HILL X THE PENTAGON

Bicameral deal on Senate China bill allows NDAA to move forward

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a deal last night for a bicameral conference on the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, a $200 billion China competition and technology bill that’s been hung up for months.

This deal has two immediate impacts, plus a third that we’ll explain in some more detail below.

First, Schumer wanted to attach USICA to the National Defense Authorization Act, a key defense policy bill that’s been passed annually for the last 60 years. Republicans objected to that idea, however, and the NDAA was stalled.

But once Schumer announced the bicameral conference on USICA, the Senate turned around and invoked cloture — a key procedural hurdle — on the NDAA bill, which is a must-pass piece of legislation. There are a lot of important amendment votes ahead — U.S. policy toward Afghanistan, women being drafted, vaccine mandates for the military and repealing the 1991 and 2002 Iraq AUMFs among them. But the Senate is now on a path to passing the NDAA, one of the few really bipartisan things Congress does anymore.

Second, USICA is an important bill in its own right. The House and Senate have big differences on their ambitious proposals to remake the National Science Foundation in order to boost U.S. research and manufacturing. A bicameral conference means there’s a chance to resolve this dispute and actually pass something.

The Senate is also calling for tens of billions of dollars to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry, which is under intense competition from China, Taiwan, South Korea and other foreign competitors. Congress has been talking about moving legislation to support this vital industry for years, but lawmakers haven’t been able to come to any agreement. That topic will get renewed focus as well.

So there’s at least some movement forward on USICA, which is a positive development.

Finally, let’s go back to NDAA for a minute. As we said, it’s a must-pass bill, and the Senate wants to finish work on it once the chamber returns from the Thanksgiving recess.

But Congress also has to address the issue of government funding — which expires on Dec. 3 —  and the debt limit, which will be reached in mid-December. Avoiding a government shutdown, and even more importantly, a potential debt default, is huge. This will take floor time.

And Schumer is also going to have to take up the Build Back Better Act next month as well.

Which means Schumer is facing a nearly impossible list of competing priorities. Any one of these by itself would be big. All four together is a veritable mountain. It’s yet another test for the New York Democrat as he tries to finish up his first year as majority leader.

NOMS NOMS NOMS

Controversial OCC nominee finally gets her day before Senate Banking panel

The Senate Banking Committee is holding a high-profile hearing today on Dr. Saule Omarova, who’s been nominated by President Joe Biden to head up the Office of Comptroller of the Currency. And it will be up to moderate Senate Democrats as to whether she will get confirmed for this post.

Omarova’s path to this nomination is unusual, to put it mildly. Omarova was born in 1966 in Kazakhstan, then part of the Soviet Union. She graduated from Moscow State University in 1989. Omarova then came to the United States in 1991 “with one suitcase and a fifty-dollar bill in my pocket. I fell in love with this country and its people from day one,” she said in her opening statement for today’s hearing.

More Omarova: “I earned a doctorate from the University of Wisconsin and a law degree from Northwestern University. I practiced banking law at one of the top law firms in New York City, and served in the U.S. Treasury under the George W. Bush Administration. These experiences taught me invaluable lessons about how financial ‘sausage’ is made and how that can lead to devastating financial crises.”

Omarova is currently a professor at Cornell University Law School. Here’s her CV. It’s pretty impressive.

Progressives have hefty praise for Omarova. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the Banking Committee chair, called her a “historic nominee” who is “well versed in new financial technologies” and ready to “work with stakeholders across our financial system.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who serves on Banking, said Omarova was “an excellent choice to oversee and regulate the activities of our nation’s largest banks and I have no doubt she’ll be a fearless champion for consumers.”

But Republicans and conservative media outlets have attacked her as wildly radical. Some powerful financial services trade groups — the American Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America — have either criticized her (ABA) or are outright opposed to her nomination (ICBA).

The Wall Street Journal editorial board dubbed Omarova the “Comptroller of the Economy,” while National Review referred to her as “Biden’s Commissar.” They point to articles or papers where Omarova advocated for broad new powers for the Federal Reserve over banks, or called for the creation of a new federal “investment authority” to direct funding toward projects designed to combat climate change.

Here’s the WSJ: “In a recent paper ‘The People’s Ledger,’ she proposed that the Federal Reserve take over consumer bank deposits, effectively ‘end banking,’ as we know it,’ and become ‘the ultimate public platform for generating, modulating, and allocating financial resources in a modern economy.’”

Sen. Patrick Toomey (R-Pa.), ranking member of the Banking Committee, said he’s “never seen a more radical regulatory nominee” than Omarova.

Toomey has demanded that Omarova turn over a paper she wrote at Moscow State University — this is as a college student in her early 20s — entitled “Karl Marx’s Economic Analysis and the Theory of Revolution in Das Kapital.” Omarova hasn’t done so.

And Fox News reported Wednesday that Omarova “was arrested in 1995 for ‘retail theft’ from a T.J. Maxx store in Madison, Wisconsin. The police report, filed by a T.J. Maxx security agent, says she stole $214 worth of merchandise before being caught.”

So needless to say, Omarova isn’t getting any Republican support on the Banking Committee, or likely anywhere in the Senate.

Thus with progressives strongly for her, and Republicans vehemently opposed, it all comes down to moderate Democrats. If they come out against her. Omarova is done.

Sen. Mark Warner’s (D-Va.) office said he was going to follow the hearing closely. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) acknowledged “real concerns” about Omarova’s policy positions. 

“Some of Dr. Omarova’s past statements about the role of government in the financial system raise real concerns about her ability to impartially serve at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and I’m looking forward to discussing them with her at her hearing,” Tester said in a statement. 

Several other Democrats on the panel didn’t respond to questions on Omarova.

The Coverage

→ NPR: “A look into the ugly and incredibly personal fight over Biden’s pick to oversee banks,” by David Gura

→ NYT: “Biden’s O.C.C. pick declares her support for capitalism and community banks,” by Emily Flitter

→ Bloomberg: “Wall Street Watchdog Pick Who Scares Banks Faces Grilling,” by Jesse Hamilton and Robert Schmidt

THE WORKFORCE FEATURING RACHEL CARLSON

Rachel Carlson on redefining continuing education for the workforce

Our third installment of The Workforce features Guild Education CEO and Co-Founder Rachel Carlson.

Guild works with companies to create programs that help employees get free college degrees. It also works with employers to help retain their workers. Carlson and her team built a payment system that connects employers with universities to simplify the payment system. They also developed a team of coaches to work directly with employees to help them evaluate their options. Guild is only six years old but is already valued at $3.75 billion. 

Here’s Carlson on how Guild is redefining what success looks like for students across the country: 

We dual track the students’ success outcome in terms of what they want, which is often economic mobility, promotion, more stability in their schedule, a salary job. We typically don’t hold higher education accountable for these. We track those in addition to retention and completion.

Read more on Carlson here and don’t forget to check out our first two profiles on Rep. Bobby Scott and Sec. Gina Raimondo. 

→ Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) endorsed Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) for re-election.

It’s no surprise that a sitting senator is endorsing one of his colleagues for re-election. But, as we all know, former President Donald Trump is trying to defeat Murkowski. Barrasso is one of the contenders to be the next Senate Republican leader after Mitch McConnell. So there are a lot of layers here. 

→ Bernie 2020 has $1.3 million on hand, according to an FEC filing. Don’t give up hope!

→ United the Country — a pro-Biden super PAC — has an ad that seeks to remind people of the American Rescue Plan, the stimulus package that congressional Democrats passed at the beginning of this year. This ad courtesy AdImpact.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily briefing.

9:45 a.m.: Biden will sign several bills into law in the State Dining Room. 

10:45 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference. 

11 a.m.: House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro will hold a pen and pad on the Appropriations process. 

1:15 p.m.: Biden will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

1:30 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

1:45 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters. 

3 p.m.: Biden will meet with AMLO.

2:45 p.m.: Harris will meet with Trudeau. 

4:45 p.m.: Biden will meet with Trudeau and AMLO together for the North American Leaders’ Summit.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “White House Plans Major Expansion of Covid Vaccine Production,” Sheryl Gay Stolberg

→ “Accused 9/11 Mastermind Seeks Access to Secret Testimony,” by Carol Rosenberg in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

WaPo

→ “Pentagon inspector general raises questions about former D.C. Guard commander’s Jan. 6 account,” by Dan Lamothe and Paul Sonne 

WSJ

→ “Biden Asks FTC to Examine Oil, Gas Companies’ Role in High Gasoline Prices,” by Andrew Restuccia, Katy Stech Ferek and Christopher M. Matthews

→ “Target, TJX Post Strong Sales, Say They Have Plenty in Stock for Black Friday,” by Sarah Nassauer and Charity L. Scott

AP

→ “Differences endure as Biden brings back North America summit,” by Aamer Madhani, Rob Gillies, and Maria Verza

Politico

→ “Dems agonize over tax cuts for rich: ‘Bad policy, bad politics’” by Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images