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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Monday morning!

We have some new data from The Canvass, our anonymous survey of senior Capitol Hill aides with Locust Street Group. We’ll be rolling out the data each day this week. Subscribe to Premium because it’ll be in our afternoon and evening editions.

This month, we polled our readers who they believe is the most powerful congressional leader. We told staffers to put aside their party preference and asked who they believe “currently holds the most power and influence in D.C.” 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi was the clear winner. Sixty percent said Pelosi — 74% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans.

Coming in second with 28% was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

In third place was “other.” 

And then in fourth with 6% was Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Eight percent of Democrats named Schumer and 5% of Republicans. Zero percent — no one — names House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. 

“Other” ahead of Schumer. Yikes.

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BUY THIS BOOK!

The reveal: Details from the new JMart and Alex Burns book

We’ve been fortunate over the past few months that NYT’s Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns have been spending some time with us up on Capitol Hill. But, at the beginning, it got us nervous. These are high-powered reporters and we didn’t want them invading our beat. Well, they did, and they’ve got a lot of juicy material for their new book: “This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden and the Battle for American Democracy.” It will be out May 3.

Here’s the description from the publisher:

This is the authoritative account of an 18-month crisis in American democracy, New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns reveal how both political parties confronted a series of national convulsions, including the coronavirus pandemic, the January 6 attack on the Capitol and the political tribalism engulfing the country and confounding its new president.  

With stunning, in-the-room detail, Martin and Burns also expose the deep fissures within both parties as Republicans attempt to regain power while former President Trump pursues a campaign of vengeance and Democrats try to govern with the narrowest of majorities and an ideologically divided coalition. Breaking news on most every page, Martin and Burns draw on hundreds of interviews and never-before-seen documents and recordings from the highest levels of government. 

We’ve known JMart and Burns for a very long time. We worked with them at Politico. This book will have the goods so you should pre-order it.

THE BIDEN AGENDA

What’s next and what you should be watching: BBB edition

So the die is cast on the Build Back Better Act. Last week, when the House passed the $1trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill — finally — and cleared the rule for the BBB, moderates and progressives cut a deal that could lead to a vote for the social spending package next week. 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent a Dear Colleague Sunday night. Here’s what it said:

Now, even though this vote is tentatively planned for next week, there’s a lot to consider here. 

→ The CBO score is obviously key to the agreement between moderates and progressives. But as we saw during the infrastructure debate in the Senate, CBO’s analysis doesn’t always line up with lawmakers’ assumptions. So we anticipate the CBO score to be a bit of a challenge. For example, the White House assumes $400 billion in new revenue from “IRS Investment to Close the Tax Gap.” We can pretty much guarantee that won’t be what CBO comes up with. 

→ What happens if CBO’s analysis isn’t completed by next week? This is a big question. CBO knows that the eyes of Capitol Hill are upon them, so there’s hope in the Democratic leadership that they’ll move quickly. The agency may end up releasing a mix of data tables and analysis by that deadline, some leadership aides have suggested. But we’ve also heard from a number of offices that they don’t expect to deliver data until the week of Nov. 22, which is Thanksgiving week. This would be a problem schedule-wise for the leadership. So we’ll watch that closely.

→ What’s next? The statement from moderate Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Ed Case (Hawaii), Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) and Kurt Schrader (Ore.), which helped unlock the deal to pass the bipartisan infrastructure deal, is very carefully worded. It said that if the CBO score “is inconsistent” with White House estimates on BBB, the group remains “committed to working to resolve any discrepancies in order to pass the Build Back Better legislation.” That makes passage the key goal — as progressives demanded — but it doesn’t lay out a timetable. It’s clear that any problems will have to be resolved fairly quickly, however.

→ Senate timeline. There isn’t any. We expect lots of stories about Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the coming weeks, but everyone will be watching this CBO analysis very closely. If this legislation is completed by Christmas — meaning back through the House after whatever changes the Senate makes — that will be something.

Biden to Baltimore: President Joe Biden will head to Baltimore on Wednesday “to discuss how the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal delivers for the American people by upgrading our nation’s ports and strengthening supply chains to avoid disruptions.”

White House officials have promised more trips by Biden and other senior administration officials to get out their message on the infrastructure bill in coming weeks and months.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

8:45 a.m.: President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will leave Rehoboth Beach for D.C.

9:40 a.m.: The Bidens will arrive at the White House. 

10:15 a.m.: Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their intelligence briefing.

1 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will brief.

2:50 p.m.: The Milwaukee Bucks will appear with Biden at the White House to celebrate their NBA championship. 

9:30 p.m.: Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will fly to Paris. They will be in Paris until Saturday. 

JOB NEWS

OnMessage launching public strategies arm with Plotkin as partner

OnMessage Inc. — the Republican political strategy firm — is launching a new company, OnMessage Public Strategies and Kyle Plotkin, Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) former chief of staff, will be a partner. 

OnMessage Public Strategies says it will “help companies and trade associations navigate complex policy and political issues.” There has been a realignment, of sorts, in Republican politics and OnMessage is trying to position itself as being in touch with those forces.

OnMessage’s partners –– Brad Todd, Timmy Teepell, Graham Shafer, Wes Anderson, Curt Anderson and Guy Harrison — will also be partners with Plotkin in the public strategies group.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Republicans, Basking in Tuesday’s Victories, Diverge on What Comes Next,” by Jeremy Peters in Las Vegas

→ “How a $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Survived an Intraparty Brawl,” by Jonathan Weisman and Carl Hulse

WaPo

→ “Democrats search for political identity amid dismal election results and legislative triumph,” by Matt Viser in D.C., Cleve R. Wootson Jr. in  in Cherry Hill, N.J., and Karina Elwood in Nelson County, Va.

→ “Nearing Monday coronavirus vaccine deadline, thousands of federal workers seek religious exemptions to avoid shots,” by Lisa Rein, Ian Duncan and Alex Horton

WSJ

→ “Federal Appeals Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Administration Vaccine Rules for Private Employers,” by Brent Kendall and Sabrina Siddiqui

AP

→ “US lifts pandemic travel ban, opens doors to visitors,” by Travis Loller

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images