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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Good Tuesday morning. 

🚨News: Senate Democrats are holding a special party conference call tonight at 8 p.m. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) isn’t sure if he’s going to participate, a source familiar with the situation tells us. This is especially noteworthy because Manchin’s declared opposition to the Build Back Better Act – and the fallout that’s provoked – is why Senate Democrats are having the call in the first place.

If he doesn’t join the call, it’s just another example of how far afield Manchin is from the Democratic Party on Capitol Hill at the moment.

We expect that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will discuss the path forward on the BBB and voting rights, both priorities that Manchin opposes.

Our friend Jonathan Lemire of Politico reported that President Joe Biden spoke to Manchin Sunday, their first conversation since Manchin declared his opposition to the current version of BBB over the weekend. But Manchin unloaded Monday on White House staff during an interview with Hoppy Kercheval of MetroNews in West Virginia. During that interview, Manchin reprised all of his problems with the package. For example, Manchin raised the issue of work requirements to qualify for the Child Tax Credit, which Democrats thought they’d solved already.

INSIDE THE SENATE GOP

The Three Johns talk about who will be the next GOP leader

The news this week has, of course, been dominated by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). But we’ve wanted to talk about the “Three Johns” – Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) – for a while. So we’re going to take the opportunity to do it now. All three of these are potential future GOP leaders.

Now let’s start by saying that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He’s been the GOP leader for 14 years, and it’s clear he’d like to break the late Sen. Mike Mansfield’s (D-Mont.) record as the longest-serving party leader in Senate history. Mansfield was Democratic leader — in this case, majority leader – from 1961 to 1977. So the 79-year-old McConnell needs a couple more years in the job before he can best that mark. Also, McConnell looks very secure in the job despite the fact that former President Donald Trump attacks him all the time. It’s another testament to McConnell’s staying power. 

The second point is there’s no animosity in this trio. No one is taking shots at the other in private – rare for an intra-party rivalry. They’re all decent people as well, it’s just not their style. 

And finally, no one knows how the 2022 elections will play out. There’s no reason to put personal ambition above party success now.

Yet one of the “Three Johns” — and we’re laying down a marker on this nickname right here — will eventually be his successor. The real question is which one and when.

Thune and Cornyn, for their part, are open that they’d like to be GOP leader someday. Barrasso will only acknowledge that he “won’t rule anything out,” but it’s clear he’s ambitious.

GOP senators have mixed opinions on who it will be. They acknowledge that any discussion of a post-McConnell world is both sensitive and, in a sense, premature. Half of the 15 or so Republicans we spoke to admitted they watch the “Three Johns,” while the other half acted as if they’d never even heard of them or the concept of a leadership race.

“I think they’re all well liked. They bring different skill sets,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who also serves in leadership. “John Thune, having been in the arena longer than anybody else, is very member-centric. John Cornyn, the same thing, but with the extension of his Judiciary [Committee] background and the NRSC [National Republican Senatorial Committee]. And John Barrasso, just being really good at messaging and also very member-centric.”

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.): “It’s not something we talk about. It’s not something that people think about every day. I don’t. But those of us who may be around here for a while do think in terms of planning for the future.”

THUNE

Let’s start with Thune, the current Senate minority whip. Thune, who turns 61 in a few weeks, hasn’t formally announced whether he’ll seek a fourth term next year – he says he’ll do so by the end of the year. But he did acknowledge that the chance to be Senate Republican leader will play into his reelection decision.

“I think that’s obviously a factor in considering whether to take another run,” Thune said. “Obviously, nobody knows when [McConnell] is departing and we all hope he stays. But obviously it’s something I’m interested in.”

We asked Thune about his relationship with Cornyn and Barrasso. “Oh, we’re all friends.” And this is accurate, as far as we can tell.

We also asked Thune about Trump’s attacks on him. Trump lashed out at Thune for failing to back the former’s president’s challenge to the 2020 election results. At one point, Trump referred to Thune as “Mitch’s boy” and urged South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem to primary Thune. Noem said no, of course. Thune downplayed the impact of the Trump attacks. And he fended off the question of whether he can serve as Republican leader if Trump were the GOP nominee in 2024.

“I just think that that dynamic or that factor, you don’t know, it’s a hypothetical. He’s a presence, for sure,” Thune said. “He has, at least in the past, as you point out, demonstrated an interest and willingness to attack quote whoever the ‘Republican Establishment’ is. I think it’s just something you deal with. There’s lots of things you have to deal with as a leader, including a changing political landscape or environment."

We wondered whether Thune had ever talked to Cornyn or Barrasso about their future plans?

“Nothing recent,” Thune responded. “In past cycles, when we were thinking about different leadership positions, we had some conversations… I would say not currently.”

CORNYN 

The 69-year-old Cornyn served two terms as National Republican Senatorial Committee chair and he was also the Republican whip. Cornyn term limited out of that second post, which is how Thune was able to get into the job.

Cornyn was candid about his Senate ambitions, yet like all his colleagues, this is tempered by strong backing for McConnell.

“I’m gonna support Mitch McConnell as long as he wants the job. If he is no longer in that job, I’d be interested in succeeding him,” Cornyn said.

We asked Cornyn about Thune and Barrasso, and how they all get along with one another.

“I would say we know who the electorate is [their GOP colleagues.] I think we each have a different skill set,” the Texas Republican said. “I think in the end, the question in the minds of members is who is best suited to serve the conference. It’s not going to be a popularity contest, I don’t think.” 

Cornyn added: “I admire and respect both of the other Johns and their contribution to the conference.” Cornyn clearly gets the “Three Johns” thing – win for Punchbowl News.

Finally, we asked Cornyn whether he ran for reelection in 2020 with the thought he’d be the Senate GOP leader some day?

“The main reason I ran for reelection is I still love this job,” Cornyn responded. “I think it’s important and I can’t think of anything else I’d get more personal satisfaction from. But the idea that [being GOP leader] might potentially be an option was certainly in mind. I won’t say it was a major factor.”

BARRASSO

After 24 years as an orthopedic surgeon, Barrasso entered the Wyoming Senate in 2002. Five years later, he was in the U.S. Senate. He’s now the number three Senate Republican, and his aspiration to climb even higher is pretty well known among his colleagues.

But the 69-year-old Barrasso didn’t want to talk about being the GOP leader. Like he really didn’t want to talk about it. However, we’re not shy, so we pressed. 

“I’m thinking about only two things. Beating back this [BBB] bill and taking back the majority,” Barrasso said. 

We asked again.

“It’s a privilege to serve the conference,” Barrasso added. “And I’m going to do everything I can to serve them in any way I can. Right now, I’m chairman of the [Senate GOP] Conference working on messaging to help beat this legislation and helping win back the majority.”

We continued to push, which resulted in this statement: “You’re not going to see a senator who’s going to rule out anything. And I’m not going to rule out anything.”

This was about as far as Barrasso would go. 

We asked whether he watches how Thune and Cornyn are voting?

“No. I have encouraged John Thune to run again for reelection,” Barrasso noted. “I have done that for the last number of months. I do it regularly.”

What does he say to you? Do they ever talk about leadership? “There’s no discussion of that. It never comes up,” Barrasso said.

We asked Barrasso if it was a problem having Trump attacking McConnell and other GOP senators.

“President Trump and Sen. McConnell did remarkable work together in terms of the economy, in terms of judges, in terms of regulation, in terms of rebuilding the military,” Barrasso said. “We need to all stay focused on winning back the majority in 2022, to take back the Senate, to take back the House, and move on to 2024.”

2022

The retirements keep piling up for Democrats

Two more House Democrats announced their retirements Monday – Reps. Stephanie Murphy of Florida and Lucille Roybal-Allard of California.

This comes after word leaked out over the weekend that Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.) wouldn’t run again either.

These three retirements illustrate the depth of departures in the House Democratic Caucus at the moment. Murphy is an especially high-profile case, although not entirely unexpected.

Murphy, elected in 2016, is an up-and-coming Democrat from central Florida who was one of the few remaining moderates in the House Democratic Caucus, serving as a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition. Republicans are sure to mount a challenge for this seat, which was previously held by former GOP Rep. John Mica up until a few cycles ago. Murphy is 43, and had a promising career in front of her. She was mulling a run for the Senate, but took herself out of contention after it was clear that Senate Democratic leaders favored Rep. Val Demings instead. 

Roybal-Allard is 80 and has served in Congress since 1993. Her father was a member of the House as well. Roybal-Allard is the chair of the Homeland Security subcommittee on the House Appropriations Committee, which puts her in charge of helping oversee a massive pot of money for DHS.

Roybal-Allard’s current seat is set to be redistricted into the same seat as retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.). With the twin retirements in the past week, the path is being cleared for Long Beach’s Democratic Mayor Robert Garcia to head to Congress.

Sires has also been in Congress for more than a decade.

Three different Democrats from different generations, yet all retiring ahead of the 2022 election, which is shaping up to be brutal for the party. 

For what it’s worth, we have been told by senior Republicans that they are eyeing as many as 30 Democratic retirements this cycle. There have been 23 Democratic retirements so far, and 13 GOP retirements.

THE NEW VARIANT

W.H. plans to deliver 500M rapid tests beginning next month

The White House is pledging to purchase 500 million rapid, at-home Covid tests with the aim of beginning delivery of the tests for free directly to the homes of Americans during the next month.

The new initiative will be unveiled by President Joe Biden today as part of the federal government’s response to the Omicron variant, which has spread with stunning speed across both the country and the globe. Already, the variant accounted for roughly three-quarters of Covid cases reported nationwide this week.

A senior administration official said they haven’t finalized how many tests will be available per household. The first delivery from test manufacturers will be in January, although the distribution mechanisms aren’t finalized yet, the official said.

This would mark a huge step by the White House in ramping up access to testing. The Biden administration had been heavily criticized in recent days for the lack of take-home tests available over the counter, as well as lengthy lines for in-person testing.

→ The federal government will also establish a new testing site in New York City before Christmas, the first in a series of new sites across the country. 

The Biden administration says it is also focusing on increasing hospital support and expanding vaccination capacity.

→ Hospitals: 1,000 military doctors, medics and nurses will be deployed to overburdened hospitals during January and February.

→ Vaccinations: FEMA will set up new pop-up vaccination clinics nationwide and deploy hundreds of federal vaccinators.

The big picture: Biden ascended to the White House vowing to get Covid under control. A year later, the rapidly mutating virus is still rippling throughout the country thanks to the Omicron variant. All this new activity does beg the question as to whether Congress will need to appropriate more money for Covid relief. 

A preview of Biden’s speech:

→ Biden will reiterate the country won’t be going back into lockdown and that Americans who are fully vaccinated and boosted have a high degree of protection against Omicron. While an administration official cautioned that vaccinated Americans could still contract Covid, these individuals will likely experience little or no symptoms.

→ Vaccinated Americans should feel comfortable celebrating the holidays as planned, Biden will note. But unvaccinated Americans should be aware that they are eight times as likely to be hospitalized from Covid as vaccinated Americans, and 14 times more likely to die from the virus.

→ The president will harken back to his November message on the variant: it is a cause for concern, not panic.

Here’s the White House fact sheet.

→ The gloves are off in the member-on-member GOP primary in West Virginia between Reps. Alex Mooney and David McKinley. 

Mooney is running an ad slamming McKinley’s support for the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law. The 30-second clip claims McKinley’s yes vote “resurrected” President Joe Biden’s “trillion-dollar spending bill,” while tying the public works bill to rising inflation.

“Saving America starts by saving the GOP from RINOs, sellouts and known losers,” the ad’s narrator says, quoting former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Mooney. “Say no to RINO David McKinley.”

Watch the clip, courtesy of AdImpact.

→ Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is facing a competitive primary challenge in her bid for reelection to the House. Cheney’s Trump-backed opponent, Harriet Hageman, has attacked the incumbent’s work on the Jan. 6 select committee.

But in a 90-second ad buy in Wyoming, Cheney’s campaign makes no mention of current events or her work in Washington. Instead, former President Ronald Reagan takes center stage. Reagan’s 1981 Christmas address to the nation is played behind images of Wyoming families.

“From my family to yours, Merry Christmas,” Cheney says to close the ad.

Here’s the ad, thanks to AdImpact.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10:05 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will receive the daily intelligence briefing.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

2:30 p.m.: Biden will speak about Covid.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Jan. 6 Committee Weighs Possibility of Criminal Referrals,” by Mike Schmidt and Luke Broadwater

→ “For First Time, Jan. 6 Panel Seeks Information From a House Member,” by Luke Broadwater

WaPo

→ “Biden faces tough task of rallying exhausted Americans against omicron threat,” by Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager

→ “Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate struggles as old and new Republican parties clash in Alabama Senate race,” by Michael Scherer

→ Analysis: “Did Biden’s domestic ambitions outrun his slender legislative majorities?” by Dan Balz

WSJ

→ “Companies Get Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate Reprieve as Legal Battle Continues,” by David Harrison

Bloomberg

→ “Biden Falters in Push to Reframe Debt Debate, Thwarting Agenda,” by Mike Dorning

Chicago Tribune

→ “At end of another violent year Mayor Lori Lightfoot calls for more help from feds, assures residents: ‘Keeping you safe is my priority,’” by Gregory Pratt

L.A. Times

→ “Latino political power is a big winner in California’s new congressional map,” by Seema Mehta, Melanie Mason and John Myers

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images