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BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

We’re pretty bearish about any gun control legislation getting signed into law. We’re bearish because of (Bres’) 25-plus years of covering gun-control debates that have yielded little or no progress, and because Congress is hopelessly gridlocked on pretty much everything these days. 

But we’ve sensed a tiny, tiny sliver of an opening in recent days on guns. Not much, but an opening. And behind-the-scenes, there’s lots of discussions going on, especially between senators. Will it lead to a bipartisan bill? Unclear. But it’s happening.

So let’s look at the state of play right now:

→ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Monday he believed any legislation should focus on preventing people with mental illnesses from having or using guns. McConnell also said he was happy to engage in a conversation about background checks if Democrats wanted that. But McConnell said he’s not interested in trying to take away Second Amendment rights, and it’s pretty clear that the Kentucky Republican isn’t going to engage on the House-passed background checks bill.

Here’s Andrew Zucker of Everytown, a pro-gun control group, on McConnell: “While Senator McConnell has his facts wrong on gun safety, we’re glad to hear him say he is open to discussing background check and red flag laws, broadly popular policies which would not only save lives but are backed by a majority of Republicans and gun owners."

→ Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) — one of the most fervent gun control advocates in the chamber — has been making calls to Republicans in search of common ground. The question for Democrats seems to be: Will they settle for incrementalism here instead of a big, sweeping package?

→ If Murphy doesn’t get anywhere with Republicans on a deal, progressives and gun-control groups will increase their pressure on Democrats to blow up the filibuster — especially if there more horrific events like the recent mass shootings in Atlanta and Boulder. But it’s not certain Democrats can even get all their own senators to line up behind a gun bill, so this may not be the issue to force a filibuster showdown over. 

→ The Biden administration is moving toward executive actions on several fronts. This includes regulating the sale of “ghost guns,” untraceable homemade weapons that are increasingly popular. The Biden administration believes that the kits used to make these weapons — currently available without a background check — can be regulated under current federal law. Other potential Biden executive orders would fund community violence prevention centers and boost current background check systems.

Republicans are watching the White House very closely on this issue, and they’re not convinced it’s a top priority for the administration. There’s no questioning Biden’s personal commitment to gun control; he authored the 1994 assault-weapons ban, for instance.

But Republicans aren’t sure that Biden wants to have a knock-down fight with GOP lawmakers over guns, as it’s an issue the president would lose on. That could only damage the political momentum that Biden has. The view from Republicans on the Hill is that the White House will focus — in a display of discipline — on the next issue on its legislative “to-do list,” and that’s infrastructure and social welfare programs. Guns may become a top focus for the White House, the GOP leaders don’t believe it is yet.

This leaves the fate of the debate in the hands of Senate moderates, for now. Can 60 votes be found for a gun deal? And if not, will Schumer and Biden work to blow up the filibuster in order to push a gun bill through the Senate anyway?

SQUARE THIS CIRCLE

How should we be thinking about Covid?

We’re hearing a lot of messages right now about Covid-19.

→ One-third of Americans have gotten one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, and most every state will have all adults eligible for the vaccine. By April 16, 90 percent of Americans wlil live within five miles of a vaccination site, Biden announced yesterday. Then there are millions of Americans who have had Covid who have some sort of immunity. 

→ One dose of the vaccine gives adults 80% immunity. That means 90 million people are either 80% immune or on the brink of being 80% immunity. 

→ Yet President Joe Biden implored states on Monday to reinstate mask mandates and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said she fears another surge.

So, in sum, things are getting much much better, but there’s a fear that again they can get much worse.

BEHIND THE SCENES

What Dems are reading about Iowa’s 2nd district

We got our hands on the Democratic briefing document for Iowa’s second congressional district. Iowa-2, if you recall, is the district Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) won by six votes. Democrat Rita Hart is appealing to the House Administration Committee to begin the effort to overturn the election result.

With all the weighty issues in front of Congress right now, this has become a main rallying cry for House Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is going to Davenport, Iowa, tomorrow to appear alongside Miller-Meeks. Republicans have said that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is trying to overturn the election to pad her thin majority. This Dem briefing document is a tacit acknowledgement that the party is getting a lot of questions about the challenge. This is an effort from the top to give rank-and-file Democrats some talking points to counter GOP attacks.

There is not going to be a quick result here. This challenge is going to last straight through the summer. Here’s the timetable the Administration Committee is currently using under the Federal Contested Elections Act — this is subject to revision by the committee. Both sides have submitted legal briefs in the case, including on Monday (Hart’s latest is here, Miller-Meeks’ is here):

→ March 22-April 21 is Hart’s 30-day discovery period.

→ April 21- May 21 is Miller-Meeks 30-day discovery period.

→ May 21-June 1 is Hart’s 10-day rebuttal discovery.

→ June 1-July 16: 45 days after the discovery, Hart’s brief is due. 

→ July 16 (or the date Hart’s brief is served) – Aug. 16 (or 30 days later): Miller-Meeks brief is due.

→ Aug. 16 (or the date Miller-Meeks brief is served)- Aug. 26 (or 10 days later): Hart’s reply brief is due.

REPLACING MCCONNELL?

Ky. legislature overrides Beshear on Senate replacement

The Kentucky legislature on Monday night overrode a veto by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and changed the way the state picks replacements for U.S. senators who leave office before their term is up. The new process is supported by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The action by the Republican-dominated state legislature means that if McConnell leaves office early, the seat will stay in GOP hands. McConnell, 79, was just reelected to another six-year term in November.

More on this from the Louisville Courier-Journal: 

Historically, Kentucky’s governor has been able to choose anyone — of any political party — to fill in temporarily if a vacancy pops up in the Senate, whether that happens by the senator’s choice, expulsion or death. 

SB 228 changes that appointment process in key ways. Most notably, it requires the governor to pick a temporary successor who shares the same political party as the departing senator.

It also makes them select that person from a list of three names provided by the executive committee of the departing senator’s state party.

SB 228 also includes fresh stipulations about how long the governor’s appointment to the Senate can last before voters get to elect someone to take over that seat — which depend largely on when the vacancy happens — as well as new rules about how such elections would work.

A THREAT OR HOT AIR?

Will moderate Dems get a spine?

A pair of northeastern Democratic lawmakers say they won’t support any Biden tax proposal unless it repeals the cap on state and local taxes. Rep. Tom Suozzi of New York put out a statement Monday and Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey told Axios he would not consider a Biden tax proposal unless it repealed the SALT caps.

The pathway here for Gottheimer and Suozzi is pretty clear: If they stick to this position and truly decline any and all entreaties, and they recruit three or four more members to join with them, they can have an impact because of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) tight margin. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) backs them on this policy. But there’s saber rattling and then there’s saber rattling. We’ll see if the House Dems keep their spine stiff here.

MOMENTS

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will get their daily briefing.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

2 p.m.: Biden will sign the extension of the PPP.

CLIP FILE

NYT: “Biden Pushes Mask Mandate as C.D.C. Director Warns of ‘Impending Doom,’” by Sharon LaFraniere and Sheryl Gay Stolberg

“With an Eye on 2024, a Rarely Bashful Pompeo Grows More Combative,” by Lara Jakes and Michael Crowley

“Why Transgender Girls Are Suddenly the G.O.P.’s Culture-War Focus,” by Jeremy Peters

WaPo: “New accounts detail how New York health officials were told to prioritize coronavirus testing of people connected to Andrew Cuomo,” by Amy Brittain, Josh Dawsey and Sarah Ellison

“Biden’s first slate of judicial nominees aims to quickly boost diversity in federal courts,” by Ann E. Marimow and Matt Viser

WSJ: “Stock Futures Creep Higher as Global Equities Rise”

AP: “Biden, CDC director warn of virus rebound if nation lets up,” by Zeke Miller 

“Trump’s heir? Pence reemerges, lays groundwork for 2024 run,” by Jill Colvin: “The former vice president is steadily reentering public life as he eyes a potential run for the White House in 2024. He’s joining conservative organizations, writing op-eds, delivering speeches and launching an advocacy group that will focus on promoting the Trump administration’s accomplishments.”

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images