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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

We’ve spent the last several weeks ragging House Republicans, and deservedly so. They’ve had a pretty bad month. It’s a May to forget. A Dis-May, if you will. (Give a hand to Bres on this one.)

Most Republicans will privately agree that things haven’t gone very well for them during the last few weeks. First it was the debacle over Rep. Liz Cheney’s (Wyo.) ouster from the GOP leadership following her continued criticism of former President Donald Trump. And on Wednesday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy lost 35 votes on the Jan. 6 commission, another Trump-related implosion.

But some in the GOP leadership have quietly made the argument to us that we’ve got it all wrong. 

→ These Republicans say that McCarthy wasn’t to blame here. It was Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) who freelanced and cut a deal on a Jan. 6 commission bill that put Republicans in a bind. Of course, Katko is the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee and has a ton of leeway, but these GOP insiders say he didn’t communicate enough with the leadership about his talks with Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the Homeland Security chair, over the Jan. 6 proposal. 

→ These Republicans also say that McCarthy’s late lobbying blitz helped prevent a tsunami of support for the Jan. 6 bill. McCarthy came out against the legislation and then lobbied Senate Republicans to back off their support, making passage in the Senate much, much tougher. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his top lieutenants are against it now.

→ 83% of House Republicans voted against this bill, and the leadership would like you to know that’s a pretty good ratio. 

→ In McCarthy World’s view, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was going to extend this commission into 2022 as part of her plan to tie Trump and the Jan. 6 insurrection to every vulnerable Republican. Of course, House Democratic leadership says this is nonsense and a lame excuse.

→ Since it was clear that the bill was going to pass, McCarthy cut loose some of his members in swing districts to vote for it, or encouraged them to do what they needed to do.

→ If Republicans win the House in 2022, no one will remember or care about this off-year swoon — at least that’s what the House GOP leadership hopes.

Some of this is clearly spin, some of it makes sense, and some is hogwash. We think losing 35 votes on a high-profile bill of this nature is pretty bad. Losing = opposite of winning.

So, here’s what we’re watching now: McCarthy and his fellow House Republicans have never been happier to go on recess in their entire lives. After tomorrow, the House won’t vote until June 14. And McCarthy will be doing what he enjoys best — going on the road, seeing members in their own districts, meeting with candidates, doing political events and raising money. 

→ When the House comes back, Democrats are going to focus on passing a major infrastructure bill. If it includes the tax increases that President Joe Biden has proposed, this will be a rallying point for McCarthy and his GOP colleagues. It could possibly be the pivotal moment in the battle for control of Congress in the next election.

→ The Senate is going to take up the Jan. 6 commission bill as early as next week; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already begun the process to bring up the legislation on the floor. Senate Republicans are now privately admitting to us that they think a filibuster here will look really bad — especially with a bipartisan vote in the House. 

→ Do Senate Republicans try to get some changes out of Democrats on this bill? Or do they just block it? We’re still betting that McConnell blocks it. But Democrats will search for a way to get 10 Republican votes by tweaking the bill? We’ll have to see how far Schumer and Pelosi are prepared to go to actually enact this legislation.

Also up for a vote today: House Republicans will get a chance to show some unity today — by voting against extra security for the Capitol. They’re opposing the $1.9 billion security supplemental Democrats have put together to “harden” the Capitol complex following Jan. 6. They — and both parties in the Senate — don’t like the bill, which includes a number of recommendations from former U.S. Army General Russel Honore’s review of the Capitol’s security needs. There’s concern over $250 million for “future security needs,” including retractable or “pop in” fencing, as well as $200 million for a “Quick Reaction Force” to bolster the U.S. Capitol Police in emergencies.

Republicans assert they were negotiating in good faith on a compromise when Democrats shut down the talks and decided to move a bill to the floor. Democrats, for their part, claim their GOP counterparts were just stalling because they’re not sure what they wanted to do. 

Either way, this will be one of the last issues members vote on before they leave D.C. until mid-June. So the bill is going to pass, but we don’t think there will be much bipartisan support and it faces an uncertain future in the Senate

WE HEAR … 

Hopes for a quick infrastructure deal fade

→ The White House is planning to submit its rebuttal to the Senate GOP infrastructure offer by Friday — we’ve gotten signals it will be on Friday.

→ Senate Republican leadership is getting more skeptical that a deal can come together on this issue.

Biden administration officials — including White House Counselor Steve Ricchetti, Director of Legislative Affairs Louisa Terrell, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — have been meeting with a half-dozen Senate Republicans led by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.) searching for a bipartisan deal on infrastructure.

The first session, which included President Joe Biden, seemed to go pretty well, and the GOP senators came out of there thinking a deal may actually be possible.

However, since then, the discussions haven’t been nearly as productive, according to sources close to the talks. Both sides are still trying to determine what “infrastructure” means — is it only roads, bridges and airports, or does it include child care? — and how to pay for what they decide will be included in the package.

Republicans are vehemently opposed to Biden’s plan to raise taxes on corporations and wealthy Americans. Raising the gas tax — including indexing it — is still under discussion, but no there’s no agreement there yet. Boosting IRS funding in order to help bring in more tax revenue seems doable, but that won’t yield anywhere near the revenue needed to pay for this package. So pay-fors are a problem too, which was always likely to be the case.

And we’ve already reported that Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, wants to ensure climate provisions stay in the bill. That’s another problem for Republicans.

So while Capito and the White House continue to make encouraging noises about the state of play, in private, Republicans are concerned that a deal may not be possible. What the White House offer looks like on Friday will go a long way toward determining if any agreement is within reach, GOP insiders say.

Even as that’s unfolding, Buttigieg and HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today to talk infrastructure and push for passage of Biden’s American Jobs Plan. 

“Our status quo is unsustainable – it’s unfair and it’s holding our people and economy back,” Buttigieg is set to tell the panel.  “And years of tinkering around the edges have not worked.”

→ On another note: The Senate will vote Thursday on an amendment by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) barring the cancellation of contracts for “physical barrier and other border security measures for which funds have already been obligated and for which penalties will be incurred” if the projects are cancelled. This, of course, has to do with former President Donald Trump’s border wall between the United States and Mexico. There’s a 60-vote threshold on this amendment, and it will not get 60 votes.

PAY RAISE

Top House Dems seek study on improving benefits for Hill aides

A trio of top House Democrats — Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (Md.), Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) and House Administration Committee Chair Zoe Lofgren (Calif.) — are calling for a study to determine whether improving benefits for congressional staffers would help boost staffer retention and recruitment 

Let’s just say we think we know how this will turn out. Let us also say that we know that nearly every Hill aide thinks this is long overdue. 

In the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection, Hoyer and Jeffries have been pushing to raise staffer salaries. While the issue is wildly popular among Hill aides (of course!), there’s still political problems with the idea — members don’t want to be hit with campaign ads saying they’re overpaying their staffers.

Now, in a letter to Catherine Szpindor, the House’s Chief Administrative Officer, the three senior Democrats want to determine what kind of impact drastically improved benefits would have, as well as what benefits private-sector employees are receiving.

Here’s an excerpt of the Hoyer-Jeffries-Lofgren letter, obtained by Punchbowl News:

This discussion is, we believe, long overdue, as staff for Members, leadership, and committees continue to work hard, work long hours, and give such dedicated service to this institution and to their country even as they earn relatively low pay and receive benefits that are not competitive with the private sector.  For this reason, we have been working to identify methods of improving pay and benefits for House staff, and we write to ask that your office conduct a study on the current benefits available.  Knowing the full scope of benefits offered to House staff will help us better understand where gaps exist and opportunities to make House employment more competitive and more diverse might be found.

In such a study, we hope you will explore the impact that extending the following additional benefits would have on employment competitiveness and staff recruitment and retention:

• Reimbursement for adoption or fertility treatment not covered by insurance;

• A first-time homebuyer assistance benefit for House employees;

• Making House staff eligible for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program and providing coverage for private student loans;

• Offering a tax-advantaged college-savings benefit or “529” plan;

• Providing childcare subsidies for staffers who do not use the House daycare; &

• Allowing staff from offices that are shutting down (due to the death or resignation of a Member, a party transition, or a loss of election or an appointment) to remain on payroll for sixty days beyond their offices’ closure.

In addition, we would appreciate your specific mention of benefits currently enjoyed by many employed in the private sector or in the U.S. Senate that are not currently available to House staff.  

It is our hope that such a study will help inform efforts to include expanded benefits in the Legislative Branch appropriations bill for the next fiscal year.  We will continue to advocate for House staff to receive more competitive pay and benefits so that the House can recruit and retain the best and most diverse talent to serve the American people. 

REVERSAL

Todd Young backs away from his call for a cease-fire

We wrote yesterday about the politics of the Israel situation, and how a ceasefire was becoming nearly impossible for Republicans to back.

Well, Jewish Insider has a pretty good example of that.

JI’s Marc Rod:

Days after issuing a bipartisan statement calling on Israel and Hamas to reach a cease-fire “quickly,” Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) backed away from his initial position on Wednesday, calling for Israel to take out Hamas’ infrastructure.

“Senator Young shares his colleagues’ concerns about a premature cease-fire or one that occurs on Hamas’ terms,” a Young spokesperson explained to Jewish Insider. “Hamas’ infrastructure and tunnel network in Gaza is far deeper and more sophisticated than many previously understood… As such, it is clear that Israel needs more time to deal with the threat it is facing. The only way to create an enduring cease-fire is to deal with the threat they are facing and reestablish deterrence by taking out Hamas’ terror infrastructure.”

Just days ago, Young signed a statement with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) calling for a ceasefire. Now, no longer.

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive the daily intelligence briefing.

10:45 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news briefing.

11:30 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will hold a news conference marking Cuban Independence Day.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

2 p.m.: Biden will sign the Covid-19 hate crime bill into law. VP Kamala Harris will also attend.

3 p.m.: Pelosi will hold a photo opportunity with South Korean President Moon Jae-In.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Top Trump Executive Under Criminal Investigation Over Taxes,” by Ben Protess, William Rashbaum and Danny Hakim: “The New York attorney general’s office has been criminally investigating the chief financial officer of former President Donald J. Trump’s company for months over tax issues, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

“The office of the attorney general, Letitia James, notified the Trump Organization in a January letter that it had opened a criminal investigation related to the chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, the people said. The investigators have examined whether taxes were paid on fringe benefits that Mr. Trump gave him, including cars and tens of thousands of dollars in private school tuition for at least one of Mr. Weisselberg’s grandchildren.

→ “U.S. Inquiry Into Cuomo Widens to Examine Virus Tests for ‘Specials,’” by J. David Goodman: “Federal prosecutors have been looking into whether Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration granted special access to rapid coronavirus test results for the governor’s family and other influential people, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.

“Investigators from the Eastern District of New York had been looking into the handling of data on nursing home deaths by Mr. Cuomo’s office. More recently, their focus expanded, according to the people, to include questions surrounding a priority testing program that benefited Mr. Cuomo’s close family members, including his brother, Chris Cuomo, in the early weeks of the pandemic.”

WaPo

→ “Inspired by Arizona recount, Trump loyalists push to revisit election results in communities around the country,” by Amy Gardner and Roz Helderman

→ “Biden’s warning to Israel shakes up diplomacy — and politics,” by Anne Gearan in Windsor, Conn. and Sean Sullivan

→ “Attorney for ‘QAnon Shaman’ questions mental abilities of his client, others in Jan. 6 riot,” by Brittany Shammas

Politico

→ “Gillibrand climbs back after a tough 2020,” by Burgess Everett: “A boundless optimist and ultra-composed by nature, Gillibrand won Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) as her ally this spring after years of working to overhaul military sex crime prosecutions. She now believes the duo can win 75 votes, a stunning turnaround for an effort that was repeatedly rejected by her colleagues. And Gillibrand’s yearslong push for federal paid family leave has helped the issue gain major traction within her party, giving it a real chance of inclusion in President Joe Biden’s next big spending bill.

“Gillibrand said she feels more ‘energized’ than ever to be a senator. But at some point she sees herself back on a bigger stage. ‘I definitely want to run for president again,’ Gillibrand said during an interview in her Capitol office, happily maskless after the Biden administration’s latest Covid guidance. ‘I learned so much on that campaign: about myself, about the country, about how to be successful as a politician. I became a much better speaker and became better at my job.’”

→ “Grand jury subpoena lists previously unknown person in Gaetz probe,” by Marc Caputo in Miami: “ A new name has surfaced tied to the scandal engulfing Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz: Joe Ellicott, a close friend and former employee of the elected tax collector who pleaded guilty to a host of crimes Monday.

“Nicknamed ‘Big Joe,’ Ellicott was listed in a federal grand jury subpoena sent to a different individual and obtained by POLITICO. The subpoena also lists Gaetz and two friends of his, including former Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg, who has agreed to cooperate with federal prosecutors as they examine whether the congressman had sex with a 17-year-old and paid her for it in 2017.”

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