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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

New: President Joe Biden will sign the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act into law this afternoon in the East Room of the White House. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will both make remarks. The House passed the bill 415-14 on Wednesday night — all 14 no votes were GOP lawmakers. The Senate approved the bill on a voice vote Tuesday.

The Punchbowl News Hivemind: There’ s absolutely no doubt that a bipartisan Senate infrastructure plan is gaining some momentum on Capitol Hill. If you’re up in the Capitol, you can feel it. Seung Min Kim and Tony Romm of the Post have the same feeling we do. 

The evidence of progress is all over the place:

→ Twenty-one senators are on board with a broadly defined proposal. Check out the framework for their agreement, via Burgess Everett of Politico.

→ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems modestly interested in it — or, to put it more bluntly, he’s not dumping all over it. At least not yet. And Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), McConnell’s deputy, seemed bullish Wednesday after attending a meeting with the G20 group.

→ As we reported last night in the PM edition, Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) will brief members of the Problem Solvers Caucus today. This is the kind of cross-chamber work that is helpful when building support for any big piece of legislation.

All of this motion and movement doesn’t mean they will get a deal, but it does present an interesting set of decisions for the White House to make. We’ve been speaking to a lot of senators, House members, congressional aides and White House officials over the last few days, and we’ve asked them this question:

Why should President Joe Biden take this deal, and why he shouldn’t?

So here’s the Punchbowl News Hivemind: The Five Reasons Biden Should Take This Deal, And The Five Reasons He Shouldn’t

Why Biden Should: 

→ Biden should take it because he has a lot of stuff to get done. And the most efficient and best way to get the most stuff done is to get some stuff done all the time, so you have less stuff to do. Make sense? There’s a deal on the table, or at least the outlines for a deal. Support the process. If it comes together and makes sense fiscally — and Republicans can deliver a big block of Senate votes, at least 25 to 30 — ask your party to swallow it and move on. Victory is at hand. Take the W. As Jake’s high school golf coach used to say, “A safe golfer is a happy golfer.”

→ Scratching an itch is fun. Biden wants a bipartisan victory worse than we want the cicadas to bury themselves for the next 17 years. And guess what, Mr. President: This is your chance. There aren’t going to be that many more opportunities after this for big, bipartisan victories. Again, don’t overcomplicate this.

→ Anytime anyone offers you $1 trillion, just take it. Seriously. Biden lived through the Obama era, when Hill Republicans were looking to cut money each week (remember YouCut? LOL). Republicans want to give you $1 trillion with no tax increases and no deficit spending. Take the deal.

→ Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) made a good point to us a few weeks ago: It’s probably easier to get 10 Republicans for something than it is to get the last three or four Democrats. Blunt is not always right, but he may be right here. 

→  It’s the right thing to do. Good policy is always good politics. The country badly needs to fix and upgrade its roads, bridges, rail lines, airports, ports, etc. We built the world’s biggest and best national infrastructure network, then we let it deteriorate because policymakers starved it of needed investments. This $1 trillion bill would benefit every American and every business in the country, which is why business groups want to see such dramatic moves by Congress and the White House on infrastructure. It’s good policy, and that will pay off politically in 2022 for Biden and Democrats — no matter what happens with the rest of his agenda. 

Why Biden Shouldn’t

→ One tough vote. There’s a pretty compelling reason to not take the smaller bipartisan bill, and it’s this: If Congress jams everything from Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan into one massive, multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package, then lawmakers only have to take one vote. If Biden takes the bipartisan deal, they’ll have to take at least two votes. One vote is easier than two — always. Plus, the bigger the package, the harder it is to hate — theoretically.

→ Don’t be cute. In order to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill, Biden will have to corral Democrats to simultaneously support a separate reconciliation package filled with more controversial spending provisions for social programs. Don’t you realize how hard that’s going to be? It’s a bank shot — at best. Typically when legislating seems a bit too complex to pull off, it is. 

→ Progressives see a trap — and they might be right. Progressive lawmakers and groups see this bipartisan deal as a trap of sorts. Say this roughly $1 trillion package passes with Sinema and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) backing it — or even leading the way, as Sinema is doing. Is there a guarantee that they’ll then turn around and vote for a reconciliation package that includes hugely expensive social program spending? Or tax increases? What about other Democratic moderates like Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Mark Kelly (Ariz.) or Maggie Hassan (N.H.)? Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) sees this “dual track” as a way to lock down Sinema, Manchin and the moderates, but is that really possible? 

→ It doesn’t do enough on climate change. A traditional “hard” infrastructure package is not going to do enough to take on the huge challenges the country faces in addressing climate change. Fixing roads and bridges isn’t the answer. Much more dramatic moves must be made, as Biden himself has declared.

→ The clock is ticking. Every day that Biden and Democratic congressional leaders wait to get moving on a reconciliation package means they’re a day closer to the 2022 elections. Moderates and swing district Democrats are already worried. Dragging out negotiations on a bipartisan infrastructure package for a few more weeks isn’t going to help. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) knows this better than anyone —  see “2009 -2010 and the Affordable Care Act.” Step away from the bipartisan deal and move toward reconciliation as quickly as you can and enact your agenda.

BEHIND THE SCENES

Police reform negotiators clash over leaks

News: Police reform negotiations seemed back on track this week — mostly — after the two sides clashed over leaks from their closed-door talks

Two of the key players in this high-profile issue, Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), were upset last week after copies of Booker’s reform proposal leaked to the press, sources familiar with the negotiations told us. The draft included proposed language on changing the qualified immunity doctrine. And Booker’s outreach to the Fraternal Order of Police upset other law-enforcement groups, especially the National Sheriffs’ Association. Both sides thought the other side leaked it.

There wasn’t a full breakdown in the negotiations, more like a “freeze,” in the words of one source close to the issue.

But by this week, it seemed like the talks were back on course. Democrats were waiting Wednesday for Scott to respond to the latest Booker proposal. Booker, however, had a personal issue he was dealing with, which slowed down the pace of the negotiations.

One lawmaker involved in the discussions, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), told our friend Manu Raju of CNN that the two sides had made dramatic progress. “‘We maybe had a breakthrough today.’ Graham added he thinks a deal could be reached by ‘next week.’”

We’ve heard this before, and the negotiators have already blown through several deadlines, so we’ll wait to see what happens. Yet it does seem like the discussions are moving ahead once again.

ELECTION REFORM

Schumer starts process for vote on election reform next week

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer began the process Wednesday night to force a vote on a major Democratic election reform bill next week, a move that will only increase the drama surrounding Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and the future of the filibuster.

Manchin was at the center of two different episodes on Wednesday. First, he released a series of changes he’d like to see made in S. 1, the For The People Act, which is a hugely important election reform bill for Schumer and other party leaders. Top Democrats see this bill as the needed response to efforts by GOP-run legislatures across the country to adopt new restrictions on voting since the November elections. Manchin’s suggested changes to the bill include a voter ID requirement, which many Democrats oppose.

But even more interestingly, The Intercept posted the audio of a phone call Manchin had with wealthy donors of the group No Labels. This story — which you should read — includes a lengthy discussion by Manchin of options for reforming the filibuster. Manchin has publicly opposed any effort to weaken the 60-vote threshold, but in this phone call, he seems open to at least a discussion of reducing it to 55.

A number of Democrats and progressive groups have said Schumer should move to blow up the filibuster if Republicans block the For The People Act. 

Manchin is the only Democratic holdout on For The People Act, originally drafted by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). The version that Schumer is trying to bring to the floor next week is actually an amended version of that legislation coming out of the Senate Rules Committee. Republicans blocked adoption of that new version when the Rules Committee marked up the bill. So Democrats “redrafted”  it as a new bill, now they will try to move it through the Senate next week.

There’s no chance that Democrats will get the 60 votes they need to overcome a GOP filibuster of the legislation. 

Several moderate Democrats — including Manchin and Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) — want to retrain the 60-vote threshold and oppose getting rid of the filibuster, despite heavy pressure from their colleagues and progressive groups. 

So everything is coming to a head next week. Stay tuned.

A TRADITION UNLIKE ANY OTHER

It’s National Seersucker day

At 12:30 today senators will gather around the Ohio Clock — built in Philadelphia! — to take a photo in honor of National Seersucker Day. This is organized by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). It’s a very Senate thing. 

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will enroll the Juneteenth bill alongside members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden is back in the White House and will receive the daily intelligence briefing.

10:45 a.m.: Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference. 

11 a.m.: The Covid response team will brief. 

3:30 p.m.: Biden will sign the bill making Juneteenth a national holiday.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ News, Analysis: “After Putin Meeting, a Biden Trait Shows Itself Again: Stubborn Optimism,” by Mike Shear in Geneva: “Moments after spending more than three hours on Wednesday across a table from President Biden at their first summit, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia delivered his usual list of grievances to reporters. … But if Mr. Biden was annoyed by his counterpart’s performance, there was no sign of it during his own subsequent news conference, or at a later conversation with reporters under the wing of Air Force One before he left Switzerland to conclude his eight-day, three-country diplomatic tour of Europe.”

→ News Analysis: “With Putin, Biden Tries to Forge a Bond of Self-Interest, Not Souls,” by Peter Baker

WaPo

→ “Biden’s strategy of pessimism ekes out progress with Putin,” by John Hudson in Geneva

Politico

→ “GOP hands Dems a new line of attack: They’re for ‘Trump over the cops,’” by Melanie Zanona

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images