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PRESENTED BYBY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN THE TOPSo this is it: We’re heading into the most intense legislative period since the Covid-19 pandemic swept across the country — and Capitol Hill — in early 2020. This summer and early fall are shaping up to be extremely busy. And the August recess is clearly at risk. We’re just telling it like it is, don’t kill the messenger. But get insurance on that beach house. During the next three months, Congress could pass a budget resolution worth $3 trillion-plus (how much it will actually be is still unclear), a nearly $1 trillion “hard” infrastructure bill, another $1.5 trillion or so to fund federal agencies for the next fiscal year, and a debt limit increase worth trillions of dollars. We’ll point out that this ain’t Monopoly money; it’s the real thing. This is also clear: The “bipartisan Senate gang only” portion of this program is over. It’s been real watching the rank-and-file put this together — truly real. But now the leadership has to grab control and figure out if and how they can turn all this into federal law. The Senate “Group of 10” will continue to have a key role in passing a bipartisan infrastructure deal. These senators want to “grow the vote” by convincing Senate colleagues to support the $979 billion measure, and they may make the best proponents for it. In the end, though, President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are going to have to do the heavy lifting to get this done, mainly because it has now become a key to the president’s legislative agenda. And that makes it vital for Democrats heading into 2022 and the midterm elections. Each party leader has an interesting calculus here: → Schumer: Schumer has an exceedingly tough task to get this done in a 50-50 Senate. He has to walk the line between progressives and moderates in his caucus, with each believing they’re the solution to all of Schumer’s political troubles. And it’s worth noting here for the 1 billionth time that Schumer is in cycle and may face a primary challenge from his left. (Btw, this is an interesting tweet if you’re Chuck Schumer: We will point out once more that Schumer wanted this bipartisan infrastructure deal to come together, and he wants to get it through the Senate. Passage of the bipartisan “hard” infrastructure package helps unlock the bigger, multi-trillion dollar package focused on “human infrastructure.” This is what his progressives — and Schumer — want to pass. So making his most high-profile moderates happy — Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — will help make his progressives happy. When Schumer says he’s using a “two-track approach,” he’s really talking about himself. → Pelosi: Pelosi has a multi-level play going on here as well. Pelosi will work in conjunction with Schumer, and she faces the same progressive vs. moderate divide inside her caucus. She has all of a four-seat margin to play with, so it’s only slightly easier than the calculus that Schumer faces every day. Pelosi laid down a big marker on Thursday when she said repeatedly that the Senate must pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the bigger reconciliation package before the House will move on the bipartisan bill. This is to be certain that moderates including Manchin and Sinema don’t vote for the infrastructure package and then vote no on reconciliation. Pelosi’s stance puts big pressure on the Senate to act quickly, which is not something the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body does well. But we’re old enough to remember that these kinds of situations are usually when Pelosi is at her best. Her work getting health care through in 2009-10 was unmatched — even if it did cost her 63 seats and leave her in the political wilderness for nearly a decade. Pelosi has suggested this is her last term as speaker. We’ll take her at her word. But if so, Pelosi isn’t slowing down at all. And her colleagues wonder about the same thing too. → Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: McConnell has got a “wait-and-see” attitude right now. He keeps saying he’s listening, and listening is cool. We like listening! McConnell is close to Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, the lead Republican negotiator on the infrastructure deal. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another member of this gang, is probably McConnell’s most endangered incumbent. McConnell will want to see how many progressives vote for this bipartisan bill. Can Democrats deliver the 25-35 they need to come up with? If so, then McConnell may get behind it, thinking that if the Senate passes this, it will impact whether Schumer can get 50 Democratic votes for reconciliation. If not, then McConnell will shift all his attention to trying to defeat the Democrats’ reconciliation bill. Schumer has to come up with 50 votes to pass that massively expensive measure, and McConnell will target Democrats in cycle for special pressure, including Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). → House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy: McCarthy is the easiest of the group to analyze. He doesn’t want anything to pass. He’s the minority leader, and that’s his role. The California Republican just has to find the right way to say it that’s not totally obvious. All McCarthy has to do is declare that everything Pelosi is doing is totally wrong and he’d do it better as speaker. Boom. Where’s my gavel? PRESENTED BY COMCAST In the next 10 years, Comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million people from low-income families with the tools and resources they need to succeed in a digital world. We’ll do this by connecting people to low-cost $10 Internet at home, equipping community centers with free WiFi and working with thousands of nonprofit community organizations, city leaders, and business partners to create new opportunities, particularly in media, arts, technology, and entrepreneurship. THE ELEVATOR BUSINESS Schumer’s long June filled with ups and downs If one wanted to examine the challenges that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) faces, June 2021 would be a good place to start. Progressives are demanding Schumer pass all their legislative priorities and blow up the filibuster, all in a 50-50 Senate. Moderates are demanding that Schumer pass bills that will help their reelection campaigns, and also, please protect us from those relentless progressives. Schumer’s daily grind it to maneuver through this morass. Yet Schumer and the Senate Democratic leadership have also backed themselves into a corner to some degree. The repeated refrain of “Everything is on the table” to respond to the GOP blocking legislation — leaving open the possibility that Democrats may try to eliminate the filibuster — has helped lead to a stalemate. Schumer has never said, “I’m going to get rid of the filibuster,” but he also tried to use the suggestion that he might in order to help pressure his colleagues and Republicans. But Democratic moderates, including Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), are never going to get rid of the filibuster. Now they’ve repeatedly publicly declared they won’t, despite the pressure from the left. Their position has actually hardened on the issue. So what happens when this threat is called? Where do you go from here? For Schumer, it’s continued private lobbying. For progressives activists trying to dump the filibuster, it means stepping up their pressure on moderates. For moderates, it means trying to cut some deals with Republicans that progressives aren’t going to necessarily love. Yet at some point, everything will have to come to a head. It’s not clear when that will happen, but the frustration is growing inside Democratic ranks. Schumer also has to make Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republicans pay a price for what he considers to be his intransigence. Up to now, it’s not clear that’s going to happen either. So what were Schumer’s wins in June? → Judicial nominations. The Senate has confirmed more of President Joe Biden’s nominees for the district and circuit court posts than any president in their first six months since Richard Nixon. Overall, Schumer has done well on nominations, and he’s learned the “Mitch McConnell Rule” of being a majority leader with a president behind you — when you’re stymied on everything else, get some more judges on the bench. → Juneteenth. This was a big deal. Schumer and Democrats pushed to turn the June 19 — the anniversary of when Black slavery finally ended in the United States — into a national holiday. And it finally worked! This is a big deal, one that shouldn’t be underrated. → Iraq AUMF: We’re gonna give Schumer some credit here even though the bipartisan resolution to do this hasn’t passed yet and won’t until mid-July at the earliest — if it does. Schumer has backed repeal of the 2002 resolution authorizing military action against Iraq and the late Saddam Hussein. Schumer voted for this AUMF in 2002, so he gets to fix that now. [Parenthetically, that 2002 AUMF vote is now one of the most consequential votes cast this century. Beyond what it meant for the people of the United States and Iraq, it helped lead to Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton in 2008. That, of course, led to Joe Biden being tabbed as Obama’s VP, making Biden a national political figure. The backlash to Obama’s presidency spurred the rise of the Tea Party inside the Republican Party, which in turn led to Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, which came, of course, over Clinton. So Biden, thanks to his time as Obama’s VP, was able to put together a presidential campaign to defeat Trump last year. Thus the 2002 AUMF vote led to Biden being president. Sort of.] → Bibi out: Netanyahu’s defeat in the Israeli elections was seen as good news for all Democrats, who feared Bibi’s growing ties to the Republican Party. Of course, Schumer had nothing to do with this, but it still pleased some Hill Democrats. Schumer called Yair Lapid, the new foreign minister, Thursday. McConnell spoke to Lapid, too. Schumer’s June losses: → The For The People Act: There’s no good way to spin this for Schumer and Senate Democrats. Yes, Schumer got Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to vote for a motion to proceed on this major Democrastic election reform bill, but that’s not the game here. The game is to get bills through the Senate, and Schumer and Democrats have still haven’t found a way to get this done. → Paycheck Fairness Act: Republicans blocked this too, as they have in the past. → No votes on guns or the Equality Act: At the end of May, Schumer said this in a letter to Senate Democrats: “We may also consider gun safety and LGBTQ equality legislation during the June work period.” He left himself an out, as Democratic aides point out. But there have been no votes on guns or equality, which makes some on the left unhappy. Schumer will force votes on both at some point, activists just want to know when. Schumer remains upbeat, and there’s no question that he has to deal with a very difficult hand here — trying to keep his caucus together in an intensely polarized era. But the grind is tough, and the base wants to see more from their majority, no matter how thin it is. THE SECOND INSTALLMENT OF THE BOUNCEBACK Last week, we launched The Bounceback, presented by Google — an exclusive Punchbowl News look at five city mayors and governors and how they are helping their communities recover and prosper after COVID-19. We began with the Mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez … if you missed it, you can read it here. On Tuesday, we’ll bring you the second installment, profiling the Mayor of San Francisco, London Breed. Check it out in Punchbowl News AM. HOW THE DEAL PLAYED OPINIONATORS WSJ ed board pans the deal WSJ: “Instant Bipartisan Double Cross: Biden and Pelosi hold a Senate deal hostage to the rest of their agenda”: “Most politicians at least wait a decent interval to pull a double cross. But Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Biden are trying to prevent a revolt on the left. So they are now holding a bipartisan deal hostage to the left’s demands. This is political blackmail aimed at Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema who are part of the bipartisan Senate Gang of 10: Unless they sign on to all of the progressive tax-and-spend agenda, they won’t get their bipartisan deal. And Mr. Biden and progressives will blame them for the failure. “This is remarkable bad faith even for Washington. We’ll have more to say about the details of the bipartisan deal as they emerge. But Thursday’s comments make clear this exercise isn’t bipartisan at all. The Pelosi-Biden political goal is to use this Senate deal as leverage to jam through the rest of their progressive wish list.” MOMENTS 9:15 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will meet with Afgan President Ashraf Ghani. 9:35 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will tour the El Paso Border Patrol Station. 9:50 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing. 11:25 a.m.: Harris will meet with NGOs and legal service providers at the El Paso airport. 11:30 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will hold a news conference. 12:15 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters. 12:35 p.m.: Harris will speak to reporters and take questions at the El Paso airport. 1:30 p.m.: Biden will sign the bill into law that creates the National Pulse Memorial into law. … Harris will leave El Paso for Los Angeles, where she’ll stay for the night. 2 p.m.: Biden and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg speak about Pride Month. 3:30 p.m.: Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah of Afghanistan come to the White House. 5:10 p.m.: Biden will leave for Camp David. CLIP FILE NYT → “They Seemed Like Democratic Activists. They Were Secretly Conservative Spies,” by Mark Mazzetti and Adam Goldman in Cheyenne, Wyo. → “Pence, Diverging From Trump, Says He Was ‘Proud’ to Certify Election,” by Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman: “Speaking at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., Mr. Pence defended the constitutionally mandated role he played in certifying the Electoral College vote on Jan. 6, when a violent mob of Trump loyalists — some chanting ‘Hang Mike Pence’ — stormed the Capitol while the president did nothing for hours to stop them. “‘I will always be proud that we did our part on that tragic day to reconvene the Congress and fulfilled our duty under the Constitution and the laws of the United States,’ Mr. Pence said, noting that as vice president, he had no constitutional authority to reject or return electoral votes submitted to Congress by the states. ‘The truth is, there is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president.’” → “Biden Officials Consider Phasing Out Rule That Blocked Migrants During Pandemic,” by Eileen Sullivan and Zolan Kanno-Youngs → “Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Omits Big Climate Measures,” by Coral Davenport and Lisa Friedman WaPo → “Inside the ‘shadow reality world’ promoting the lie that the presidential election was stolen,” by Ros Helderman, Emma Brown, Tom Hamburger and Josh Dawsey → “500 arrested in Jan. 6 Capitol riot, including first charged with assault on media member, Garland announces,” by Spencer Hsu WSJ → “Nikki Haley Makes a Pitch to Iowa Republicans Ahead of Possible 2024 Bid,” by John McCormick in West Des Moines AP → “Analysis: Biden rebuts doubts, wins bet on bipartisanship,” by Jonathan Lemire PRESENTED BY COMCAST Over the last decade, Comcast’s groundbreaking Internet Essentials program has connected more than 10 million people from low-income families to high-speed Internet at home for less than $10 a month. Now, Comcast is committing $1 billion over the next 10 years to reach 50 million people with the tools and resources they need to succeed in a digital world. Enjoying Punchbowl News AM? Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat! Your referral link is: Or share via You currently have: 0 referrals
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