View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Good morning and happy Friday. Our latest edition of The Canvass — Punchbowl News’s anonymous survey of senior Capitol Hill staffers, powered by the Locust Street Group — is in, and it has some fascinating data points.

→ 78% of House staffers think Republicans will win the House. This is up 12% from the last survey in April. 

→ 70% of Senate staffers think Dems will keep the Senate. This is up 4% since April. 

→ 46% of staffers say President Joe Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan will be coupled together in a reconciliation package and passed on a party line vote. Just 39% say only a hard infrastructure bill will pass; this is what Republicans are pushing for.

→ This is our favorite: 87% of Republicans say Tucker Carlson is the most influential commentator for GOP aides. 86% of Democrats say Stacey Abrams is the most influential commentator for Dem aides.

Punchbowl News Premium members will see a detailed analysis of the poll Monday in the Midday edition. Subscribe to premium

THE 1600 BLOCK

Biden’s big Friday: Jobs and Capito

President Joe Biden has a big day today. The May jobs report will be released, and he will speak with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) as part of the ongoing bipartisan talks with Senate Republicans over infrastructure.

The jobs numbers for May will be critical for a president who has staked so much of his early presidency on this issue. The April jobs report was a huge disappointment, showing only 266,000 jobs added when the projections had been up to 1 million new jobs created. And the unemployment rate unexpectedly crept up as well, another blow to the White House.

Republicans seized on that poor showing to slam Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan, which have a combined $4 trillion-plus price tag. Republicans argued that the president and Democratic leaders have actually hurt the U.S. economy by paying out overly generous federal unemployment benefits to workers laid off during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

While Democrats dismissed the GOP attacks as off-base, there have been concerns in the financial markets about rising inflation. Biden even went so far as to place a call to Larry Summers, the former Clinton Treasury secretary who has criticized the president’s economic initiatives, to discuss the overall economic outlook, the Washington Post reported.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus estimate from economists for the May report is 677,000 jobs gained, with unemployment sinking to 5.9% from the current 6.1% level. 

The Labor Department also reported Thursday that the number of people filing initial unemployment claims dropped to 385,000 last week, the lowest level since mid-March 2020, so there has been some positive movement. 

Biden will head back from Delaware to the White House on Friday morning following the release of the jobs report. He is expected to speak to Capito today, as well.

Biden and Senate Republicans remain hundreds of billions of dollars apart on overall spending levels, although Biden made a surprising play on taxes in their last session by agreeing not to try to unwind the 2017 GOP tax cut if Republicans make a deal. Biden suggested a “global minimum tax” on corporations as an option instead, something the White House floated as part of the American Jobs Plan in March. Biden, however, is seeking $1 trillion in new funding for infrastructure programs, while Republicans were only at roughly $250 billion.

Here’s how the White House sees it, via the NYT’s Jim Tankersley and Emily Cochrane:

The president has now cut more than $1 trillion from his initial $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal, while Republicans have added less than $100 billion in new spending to their first offer, which contained about $200 billion in new spending by many estimates. Mr. Biden said this week that for now he would exclude several of his proposed tax increases, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent.

GOP senators and aides wouldn’t say much about what Capito will discuss with Biden Friday. It’s not clear if she will counter-offer the president’s latest proposal.

Biden administration officials have publicly suggested they want to know by next week whether a deal is possible. The Senate is back from the Memorial Day recess on Monday, with the House back the following week. Many Hill Democrats would like Biden to walk from the infrastructure negotiations and pass the American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan using reconciliation. 

But there’s no guarantee that it can make it through Congress. Democrats only have a four-seat margin in the House, while the Senate is split 50-50. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a leading moderate, has said he’d like the two parties to work together on this issue, and other moderates are also wary about the outlook for the party heading into 2022.

UPS AND DOWNS

This week’s winners and losers

Up

⬆️  Joe Biden: Biden’s speech on the 100th anniversary of the Tulsa race massacre was moving, and badly needed. His poll numbers remain solid. But the left is wary over infrastructure talks with Senate Republicans.

⬆️ Sean Patrick Maloney: The DCCC chair gets a win in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District as Democrat Melanie Stansbury romped to victory. Panic over 2022 midterms lessens for a moment. But let’s not go crazy. This is a strong Dem seat.

⬆️ John Boehner: Boehner criticized GOP-run state legislatures for the way they’re changing voter laws following the November elections. “And so the appearance of these partisan changes, in my view, really undermine the confidence that people should have in the election process," Boehner told CNN on Thursday.

Down

⬇️ Donald Trump: The former president’s blog is no more. As former bloggers ourselves, we know bloggin’ ain’t easy! But now Trump will have more time for golf this August when he’s not reinstated as president.

⬇️ Kyrsten Sinema: The Arizona Democrat got slammed by the left for missing the Jan. 6 commission vote, and then got slammed again for her comments on the filibuster.

⬇️ Benjamin Netanyahu: Netanyahu’s long tenure as Israeli prime minister may finally be over. And Netanyahu’s co-defendant in a corruption trial may cut a plea deal. Rough week for the longest-serving leader in Israeli history. 

THE NEW SENATE GOP POSITION

The NRSC — using Rand Paul — is list building on firing Anthony Fauci. 

THE CIRCUIT

Boehner and Cantor: Together again

John Boehner had a book party on the roof of the American Petroleum Institute office last night — Boehner’s former chief Mike Sommers runs API. You know who was there? Eric Cantor. Looks like time heals all wounds for the former leadership colleagues.

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

10:15 a.m.: Biden will speak about the May jobs numbers at the Rehoboth Beach Convention Center.

10:55 a.m.: Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will leave Rehoboth Beach for Dover, Del.

11:25 a.m.: The Bidens will leave Dover for Andrews. They’ll arrive at the White House at 12:20 p.m.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

Former Trump White House Don McGahn will testify in front of a closed session of the House Judiciary Committee today. 

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Giuliani and Prosecutors Agree on Former Judge to Review Seized Materials,” by Benjamin Weiser and Ben Protess: “Federal prosecutors and lawyers for Rudolph W. Giuliani have recommended that Barbara S. Jones, a former judge in Manhattan, be appointed to review materials seized by the F.B.I. during recent searches of Mr. Giuliani’s home and office, according to a government court filing late Thursday.

“The proposal, which still must be approved by a federal judge, would require Ms. Jones to determine what seized materials might be covered by attorney-client privilege and should be kept from the authorities who are investigating Mr. Giuliani.”

→ “Judge Permits Information From C.I.A. Torture in Terror Case,” by Carol Rosenberg

WaPo

→ “Afghan war enters more brutal phase as U.S. troops begin pullout,” by Susannah George in Nawa, Afghanistan

→ “Facebook to end a longtime exception made for politicians who break its rules,” by Elizabeth Dwoskin

→ “FBI investigating Postmaster General Louis DeJoy in connection with past political fundraising,” by Matt Zapotosky and Jacob Bobage

→ “Palestinian support for Hamas surges after its confrontation with Israel,” by Griff Witte and Sufian Taha in the Al-Amari Refguee Camp in the West Bank

WSJ

→ “Europe Pushes Alternative to Waiving Patents on Covid-19 Vaccines,” by Saeed Shah and Gabriele Steinhauser

AP

→ “US taps groups to pick asylum-seekers to allow into country,” by Elliot Spagat and Julie Watson in San Diego

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images