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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Today is going to be super busy. 

President Joe Biden is expected to attend the Senate Democrats’ lunch to help sell them on a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that will expand Medicare and other social programs, raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy, and provide a path for a large-scale bipartisan infrastructure package. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced a deal on the budget resolution Tuesday night along with Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and other Democrats on the Budget Committee, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), a high-profile moderate.

The tentative budget resolution deal could prove a major step forward in enacting Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan, when combined with a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill still being drafted by the “G10” group. We’ve got a lot more on those infrastructure negotiations below. And remember — the bipartisan infrastructure deal is the key to the Democratic budget resolution.

Overall, this Democratic budget agreement allows for $4.1 trillion in new spending when combined with the bipartisan infrastructure deal. This is a stunning total, and it comes on top of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan already passed by Congress in March. Republicans will strongly oppose it, and there will be GOP lawmakers skeptical of supporting the bipartisan infrastructure deal because the budget total is so high, as we pointed out Tuesday morning. 

The issue then becomes, of course, whether Biden, Schumer and party leaders can keep all 50 Senate Democrats in line for the budget deal. This is where Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and other moderates will have the final say.

Remember: a budget resolution sets a blueprint for reconciliation. This is a budgetary framework, a skeleton in which policies can be fit. Without it, there’s no reconciliation package, and the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan go nowhere.

We still have to see what order Schumer will bring legislation to the floor. Do Democrats bring up the bipartisan infrastructure deal for a vote first, if and when it’s ready, and then the budget resolution? We believe that’s the likely scenario, but Schumer will have to decide.

If Democrats can’t find enough support for the bipartisan infrastructure deal to break a filibuster, they’ll have to jam everything into a reconciliation package. 

Here are some stories about the deal: NYT’s Emily Cochrane and WaPo’s Tony Romm, Seung Min Kim and Jeff Stein and AP’s Alan Fram and Lisa Mascaro.

As Schumer noted last night in announcing the agreement, turning this proposal into actual legislation will be difficult, and Biden’s message today will reflect that. 

“We are very proud of this plan,” Schumer told reporters. “We know we have a long road to go. We’re going to get this done for the sake of making average Americans’ lives a whole lot better.”

Worth noting: There was no paper released Tuesday night. We don’t have any details yet. It’s just a topline number. The devil is always, always, always in the details.

What Biden will tell Democrats today: The president — who has as much at stake here politically as anyone — will tell Senate Democrats behind closed doors that they did a great job in crafting this budget framework, but now they have to pass it. Biden will urge progressives inside the caucus to support the emerging “hard” infrastructure framework, and moderates to support reconciliation. 

→ What this means: This internal agreement among Senate Democrats is a critical first step. But it is only that — a first step. Manchin and Sinema have privately signaled they may only support a much smaller reconciliation package, somewhere in the $1 trillion to $2 trillion range, so we’ll have to see what they think of a $3.5 trillion framework. 

Progressives, meanwhile, wouldn’t accept a $1-trillion-to-$2-trillion deal. While Sanders won agreement to expand Medicare to cover dental, vision and hearing coverage, he lost the battle to lower the eligibility age to 60 or even 55, so further caves will be tough to swallow on the left.

Also: Biden is hosting governors and mayors at the White House to talk about infrastructure. Governors attending include New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D). Mayors include: Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt (R) (who we profiled in The Bounceback Tuesday), Dayton, Ohio, Mayor Nan Whaley (D), Phoenix Mayor​ Kate Gallego (D), Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (D) and Mobile, Ala., Mayor Sandy Stimpson (R). 

Kevin McCarthy’s monster quarter 

News: This was another massive fundraising quarter for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

→ McCarthy raised $16.5 million from more than 28,000 donors in the second quarter.

→ He’s raised $43.6 million overall this year so far. McCarthy’is team says this beats his previous record of $33.7 million raised through the second quarter of 2019. More than 70,000 donors have contributed from mail and digital fundraising. 

→ McCarthy has transferred $12.6 million to the NRCC, $6.7 million to incumbents in tight races and $2.3 million to Republican state parties.

McCarthy gets criticized by Democrats over his record on legislation, as well as his interaction with former President Donald Trump before, during and after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

But McCarthy also knows how to raise money, which is a key component of winning elections. And it’s a sign that whatever Democrats say, GOP donors are giving to McCarthy like he could be speaker in 2023. 

Off embargo at 5 a.m.: The NRCC raised $20.1 million in June. The DCCC has announced it raised $14.4 million in June. The NRCC has $55 million on hand.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Bipartisan infrastructure talks barrel toward Thursday ‘Decision Day’

Negotiations over the nearly $1 trillion bipartisan Senate infrastructure package picked up on Tuesday as the group — led by Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — huddled off the floor late in the day.

All the senators involved described “great progress” being made, but there was still a lot of concern about the pay fors designed to offset the cost of the package. This is a big element of any bipartisan agreement, especially for the Republicans involved, and it’s clear a lot more work needs to be done in this area. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) told us Tuesday that he felt as if new, unvetted pay fors were popping up seemingly daily. 

The bipartisan infrastructure deal is a big piece of the overall strategy by President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), which is why White House officials have been so closely involved in helping the group draft its bill. It takes roughly $1 trillion out of the mix for a Democratic reconciliation package (see above), while going a long way toward convincing Sinema and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to support the overall scheme Schumer and the White House are using. 

A number of senators pointed to Thursday as their deadline, the point when the group is supposed to have made all its big decisions on pay fors and other elements of the plan.

“I think everybody has to have it in by Thursday,” Manchin said, referring to the “working groups” of senators helping assemble the bipartisan proposal. This would allow for the release of a fully developed bill by next week, which is what Schumer has called for publicly. “I think everyone is pretty much in agreement on the language that we’re doing, there’s just a couple little things that they’re working on.”

“Everyone redoubled their efforts and committed to get the major decisions done by the end of this week,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said. “We’re trying to have the decisions made by Thursday on what would be in the bill. Translating those decisions into legislative language, as you know, takes time.”

“There’s a goal to have all the member-level decisions made by the time we end the session on Thursday,” Portman added. “In some cases, we have disagreements, so we better resolve those.” 

→  A key point here: There’s two different bipartisan factions to pay attention to here. There’s the “G10,” the group of five Republicans and five Democrats that are at the core of this deal. They seem united in their willingness to keep pushing.

And then there’s the “Group of 22.” This is the broader bipartisan group of 22 senators — 11 Republicans and 11 Democrats — who were initially met on the bipartisan infrastructure plan. This is the critical mass needed to help overcome any potential filibuster of the proposal, especially from the Republican side.

Republicans involved in these discussions insist this broader coalition remains supportive of the plan, and some of those GOP senators were present on Tuesday. There are clearly significant concerns about the proposed pay fors, especially pumping more money into the IRS to help raise more revenue for the federal government.

“Nobody died," Portman joked. "Nobody stormed out or said anything otherwise."

“I’m looking around the room and feeling like the numbers are solid with the potential to grow,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said.

GUESS WHO’S BACK?

David Krone will lead public policy for Apollo

There are some figures in Washington who are simply larger than life. David Krone, the former chief of staff to Sen. Harry Reid, was one. 

Now Krone has been named a senior partner and the head of global public policy at Apollo, the private equity giant. 

“Mr. Krone will support the firm’s leadership in key areas, work to assess geopolitical trends, and advance Apollo’s thought leadership on key public policy issues to drive economic growth. He will oversee and direct engagement with policymakers and will also serve as an advisor to Apollo funds’ various portfolio companies,” the firm said in a statement. 

OK, so about Krone: He was Reid’s chief when the Nevada Democrat was Senate majority leader back in the heady days of the Tea Party revolution. As Reid’s top aide, Krone was the architect of the Senate Democrats’ legislative strategies. As you may remember, Democrats won a lot of the battles in those days. They were incredibly disciplined. 

Krone is a big pick up for Apollo.

2022

The senators who have not committed to running in 2022

Max Cohen and Christian Hall report:

The midterm elections are 16 months away, but the fight for control of the Senate looms over the nation’s capital every day. In an evenly divided Senate, every single vote matters. This has become exceedingly clear after the failed battles over the For The People Act, gun control and a minimum-wage increase, as well as a huge Democratic win on Covid relief. And as President Joe Biden tries to pass his ambitious legislative agenda, it will get even bigger.

Overall, the 2022 Senate map looks like a promising one for Democrats once again. There are 20 GOP held seats up for reelection next year, versus only 14 Democrats.

And Senate Republicans already face a slew of retirements, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alabama, and Missouri. There haven’t been any big Democratic retirement announcements yet.

However, a number of senators in both parties still haven’t formally announced whether they’re running again. These are the senators to watch as we move through the dog days of summer and the two parties clash over taxes, spending and reconciliation once again.

Prominent Republicans who have not officially declared their reelection include:

→ Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota, a potential successor to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Thune had nearly $14 million in cash on hand at the end of March.

→ Sen. Chuck Grassley (Iowa) at 87 is the longest serving Senate Republican. Grassley has said he won’t make any announcement until the fall.

→  Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), who is being targeted by Trump after voting for his impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

→ Sens. Mike Crapo (Idaho), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Mike Lee (Utah) have also kept quiet on their official reelection plans. Of these, Johnson holds a swing seat that Democrats badly want, and it will be targeted for pickup whether he stays or goes.

On the Democratic side: 

→ Sen. Pat Leahy of Vermont, the Appropriations Committee chair and president pro tem of the Senate. Like Grassley, his octogenarian GOP counterpart, Leahy won’t make a decision until later this year. Leahy is the last of the Watergate senators, having first been elected in 1974. Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland has also not formally declared.

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get the daily intelligence briefing.

11:45 a.m.: Harris will meet with disability advocates about voting rights.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

12:45 p.m.: Biden is expected in the Capitol for a Senate Democratic lunch.

3 p.m.: Biden will meet with governors and mayors. Harris, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh will attend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Lawmakers Grapple With Nagging Infrastructure Detail: How to Pay for It,” by Emily Cochrane, Jonathan Weisman and Jim Tankersley

WaPo

→ “Trump Justice Dept. effort to learn source of leaks for Post stories came in Barr’s final days as AG, court documents show,” by Devlin Barrett and Spencer Hsu

→ “Inside the secret plan for the Texas Democratic exodus: A phone tree, a scramble to pack and a politically perilous trip,” by Amy Gardner, Eva Ruth Moravec, Dan Rosenzweig-Ziff and Nicole Asbury

AP

→ “US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks,” by Heather Hollingsworth and Josh Funk

Politico

→ “The vulnerable Democrat who an infrastructure deal could get reelected,” by Burgess Everett

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images