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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

If you haven’t gotten the idea yet, the Democrats’ quest to pass a massive budget resolution and infrastructure bill is going to take some time. And as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer keeps saying, there are going to be some bumps in this very long road.

That said, we thought we’d start this morning by peeling back the curtain on why Schumer thinks this fight is going well for Democrats and why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell thinks it’s going well for Republicans. 

The goal here is to bring you inside of their thinking, with reporting from people around them and close to them.

Why Schumer should feel good: Schumer’s overwhelming conviction right now is that passing a budget resolution and bipartisan infrastructure bill will be a long and bumpy road, and everyone should be very patient. We think it could be an end-of-year deal, but we don’t feel terribly confident about that yet.

For a number of Senate Democrats, this represents their first opportunity to get something big done. The last spate of one-party Democratic control was 2009, and half the current Senate Democratic Caucus wasn’t even in the chamber then. Passing the American Rescue Plan was a high point for many Senate Democrats, and it left them wanting more — they talked about this with President Joe Biden yesterday in the party lunch. They are jazzed about Child Tax Credit checks going out. Moments like this don’t come too often: a president, House and Senate controlled by one party, all wanting to notch big achievements. 

No one — not one Democrat — has drawn a red line thus far, and that’s terrific for Schumer. Everyone has bought into this multi-step process; voting first on a bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill, and then reconciliation. 

Democrats feel as if the GOP criticisms are lame, and aren’t sticking politically. Democrats have penned a budget bill that increases Medicare coverage without raising taxes on families making $400,000 or less and small businesses. And it’s fully paid for.

But remember: This process will be long. 

Why McConnell should feel good: Senate Republicans say it all the time — this whole process is a disaster for Democrats. $4.1 trillion in new spending overall, coming on top of an earlier $1.9 trillion Covid relief package. Big job-killing tax hikes. And the debate is being driven by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a socialist.

Republicans say there are two ways this goes, and both are good for them politically: Democrats pass this budget, and the GOP gets to run on the party in power spending like drunken sailors; or they fail and Republicans get to say that Democrats can’t govern. It’s a win-win situation for Republicans, they say. Republicans can even claim that they tried bipartisanship, as several of McConnell’s top lieutenants have been working with Democrats to get an infrastructure deal done.

Republicans note that inflation is becoming a real concern for voters across the country. Gas prices are higher. Food prices are soaring. And Democrats are about to spend what Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) memorably referred to as a “shit pile of dough.” Republicans say they see 2010 all over again: short- to medium-term political pain for Democrats. 

SUMMER SOIREE 

We had a party. And we have 100,000 subscribers.

This is news: We announced last night at the Punchbowl News Summer Soiree that we have 100,000 subscribers. As you know, we launched in January, so we feel pretty good about this. Thank you so much for coming along for this ride and reading us every day. We are very excited about the community we are building — more to come, nationwide.

The Soiree was in partnership with CLEAR at the rooftop of Danny Meyer’s new restaurant Anchovy Social in Navy Yard. Senior Capitol Hill and White House aides, along with K Streeters, gathered to toast the country reopening, CLEAR’s IPO and Punchbowl News’ growing community.

Anna and CLEAR CEO Caryn Seidman-Becker also discussed the company’s growth and the future of travel. 

Raising a glass: CLEAR’s Maria Comella, Laura Brounstein and Karl Rickett, Kevin Sheridan of Protean Public Affairs, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Joyce Brayboy of Goldman Sachs, Paul Bell of Precision Strategies, Jane Adams of Johnson & Johnson, Tammy Haddad of Haddad Media, Sena Fitzmaurice of Comcast, Kevin Madden of Arnold Ventures, Mark Isakowitz of Google, Jonathan Kott of Capitol Counsel, Tiffany Moore of CTA, Elizabeth Wise and Laura Pinsky of Sazerac, Meredith McPhillips of Business Roundtable, Will Kinzel of Molson Coors, Danielle Burr and CR Wooters of Uber, Noah Theran of the Managed Funds Association, Jill Zuckman of SKDK, Betsy Fischer Martin of American University, Ron Bonjean of Rokk Solutions, Howard Han of LionTree and Charlyn Stanberry of the National Association of Broadcasters. 

Sam Feist, Brian Stelter and Kaitlan Collins of CNN, Mike Allen of Axios, Josh Dawsey, Seung Min Kim and Damian Paletta of the Washington Post, Craig Gordon of Bloomberg, Garrett Haake of NBC, Jacqui Heinrich of Fox News, Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Jonathan Martin and Katie Robertson of the New York Times, Ben Mullin of the Wall Street Journal and Eli Stokols of the LA Times. 

Terri McCollough, chief of staff to Speaker Nancy Pelosi; Jeremy Adler of Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) office; Doug Andres and Scott Sloofman of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.)office; Justin Goodman of Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) office; Andrew Bates and Sabrina Singh from the White House; Brian Romick of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) office; Gideon Bragin and Christie Stephenson from the House Democratic Caucus; Stephen Bradford from Sen. John Barrasso’s (R-Wyo.) office; Nate Hodson from House Energy and Commerce; Scott Mulhauser from Commerce.

THE INSIDE GAME

House Democrats eye the budget, and plot their plans

We want to start this section off with a quote from a House Democratic moderate about the Senate Democrats’ budget resolution, which was unveiled late Tuesday night.

“Given red-hot inflationary pressures, and our strong desire to keep the House blue, a gargantuan $3.5 trillion package, with massive new taxes, is a non-starter for many of us, and I predict it would go down in a blaze of glory," the House Democratic moderate lawmaker told us.

So even as President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) gear up to get all 50 Senate Democrats behind the $3.5 trillion budget proposal, top House Democrats have quietly begun to game out whether they can pass the measure in their chamber too. And it’s going to be tough.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her leadership team will probably have only a three-seat margin to play with if and when this budget resolution gets to the House. Senate passage, of course, will be a huge plus. In fact, it would be Pelosi’s best asset. The Democratic leadership can say to progressives and moderates alike “Look, your Senate counterparts voted for it. You can too.” That’s a much stronger message than it first appears. No one wants to be the Democrat that blocks the resolution, as much as they may not want to be the vote that puts it over the top.

Pelosi will also have to juggle the nearly $1 trillion bipartisan Senate “hard” infrastructure package, if that comes to the House as well. Moderates may not be able to vote for the budget resolution without it. Progressives, though, will demand that the budget resolution vote go first so that moderates don’t later vote against their priorities once they have the infrastructure package in hand.

And there’s another argument that Schumer and Biden will use on the Senate side, and Pelosi will repeat to her members — a vote for the budget resolution doesn’t mean a lawmaker has to support the later reconciliation bill. While there are certainly potential political ramifications for voting for a budget resolution, it doesn’t mandate that any Democrat has to support what comes next. There’ll be time for further negotiations after reconciliation instructions are issued to the committees. They can always vote no if they don’t like the reconciliation package. Or the political landscape changes so much that they need to revise their position.

Right off the top, the three House Democrats everyone will first look to are Reps. Ed Case (Hawaii), Jared Golden (Maine) and Kurt Schrader (Ore.). Golden voted against the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan earlier this year, the only Democrat to do so. Schrader has already signaled he won’t support trillions of dollars in new spending, and Case voted against reconciliation initially on the Covid relief bill. Democrats can’t lose all three of these votes.

Democratic Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (Ga.) and Stephanie Murphy (Fla.) — who also co-chairs the moderate Blue Dog Coalition — joined Case, Golden and Schrader on a letter to the leadership last month demanding that Congress pass a “budget resolution that, at a minimum, stabilizes the debt as a share of the economy over the next ten years, prior to passing any significant spending or tax legislation, Roll Call reported.

The Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan, 56-member group led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), includes a number of moderate Democrats. Some of them are complaining privately about the high spending levels in the new budget resolution, meaning the leadership will have to work this group closely.

The Congressional Progressive Caucus, led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), is one of the key factions within the broader House Democratic Caucus. Jayapal had called for a $6 trillion to $10 trillion budget resolution. That was never going to happen, but Jayapal did warn in a CNN interview that "Our caucus’ support is not guaranteed until we see how our priorities fit into the framework.”

If there are issues among progressives, they’d probably come from the Squad, Democrats suggest. While Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is the most high-profile member of this group of hard-core progressives, the half-dozen other Democrats who make up this faction are all prepared to vote against their leadership if needed. For instance, this group almost brought down a nearly $2 billion Capitol security funding bill in May because they didn’t want additional money going to the U.S. Capitol Police.

THE MONEY GAME

→ Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) raised $2 million in the second quarter of this year, which brings his total to $5 million for the year. This is all after the Jan. 6 attack.

But here’s something interesting: Hawley is investing in growing his grassroots fundraising base. Hawley added 22,800 donors in the second quarter, and 58,300 donors this year. His campaign has had 103,000 donations since Jan. 2021. In the full 2018 cycle, Hawley had 50,000 donations. 

→ Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) raised $1.5 million last quarter. He has $7.3 million on hand. 

→ Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) raised $1.5 million and has $4.8 million on hand. 

→ Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) raised $1.1 million and has $3.5 million on hand.

→ House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) raised $827,805 and has $2.4 million on hand.

Note from us: It’s wild how $1-million quarters are becoming standard fare in the House.

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will host German Chancellor Angela Merkel for breakfast at the Naval Observatory.

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get the daily intelligence briefing.

11:45 a.m.: Biden and Harris will speak about the Child Tax Credit checks.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy will brief.

2 p.m: Merkel will come to the White House to meet with Biden.

4:15 p.m.: Biden will participate in a joint news conference with Merkel. 

6:30 p.m.: Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will host Merkel and her husband, Joachim Sauer, for dinner. Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will also attend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Democrats Call for a Tax on Imports From Polluting Countries,” by Lisa Friedman

→ “Suspects in Haitian President’s Killing Met to Plan a Future Without Him,” by Anatoly Kurmanaev, Frances Robles and Julie Turkewitz in Bogota, Colombia

WaPo

→ “Joint Chiefs chairman feared potential ‘Reichstag moment’ aimed at keeping Trump in power,” by Reis Thebault

→ “VA chief halts rollout of massive digital health system for veterans, citing serious flaws,” by Lisa Rein

→ “WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report,” by Eva Dou and Emily Rauhala  

→ “Alabama military base is first in the U.S. to require vaccination proof amid rising covid-19 rates,” by Max Hauptman

Politico

→ “Pigs fly: McConnell weighs giving Biden a bipartisan win,” by Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images