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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

The whole gang is back in town.

The House returns today, and things are getting serious in the Senate on the bipartisan infrastructure deal and the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget resolution. We’ll get you up to speed on everything for what could be a frantic couple weeks of legislative action.

In the Senate — where Democrats have been in charge for six months as of tomorrow —  Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected to file cloture today on a motion to proceed to the nearly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package. That doesn’t mean the Senate is voting on the bipartisan bill; it’s just a procedural vote on the legislative vehicle that could eventually become that package. Got it?

What it really amounts to is an attempt by Schumer to speed things up. He needs the bipartisan group to file an actual proposal in legislative text form and get it scored by the Congressional Budget Office, which doesn’t seem close to happening at this point. As leader, Schumer faces a huge time crunch over the next several weeks and he needs to know now whether the bipartisan group — the “G10” — can deliver on the “framework agreement” they reached with President Joe Biden a few weeks ago. (Remember: Biden celebrated the agreement on the framework. Seems a bit premature at this moment.)

If Schumer moves ahead, the cloture vote would take place on Wednesday. And it seems clear that the bipartisan proposal won’t get 60 votes at this moment. Whether that’s the end of this bipartisan effort, and what it will mean for the Democrats’ massive budget resolution waiting in the wings, are still unclear.

“There’s no reason the bipartisan group can’t come to an agreement by Wednesday,” Schumer deadpanned during an appearance in New York City on Sunday. 

Schumer has also set a Wednesday deadline for the Senate Democratic Caucus to come to an internal agreement on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution for its reconciliation package. This is the other half of Schumer’s “two-track strategy” — one track is the bipartisan infrastructure package, the other is the Democratic budget resolution. Schumer hasn’t announced when he’ll bring the budget resolution to the floor yet for a vote-a-rama, but he needs to do it before the Senate leaves for the August break.

Schumer has to be careful here that he doesn’t alienate Democratic moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Maggie Hassan (N.H.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) — especially Sinema — that he desperately needs on the budget resolution by playing hardball on the bipartisan infrastructure package. Sinema literally wouldn’t respond to reporters’ questions on Thursday as she left town, so we don’t know how the Arizona Democrat will react this week.

We’ll note, though, that Manchin, Tester, Hassan and Sinema haven’t endorsed the budget resolution yet. And we’ll also point out that a vote for the budget resolution at this point only begins the long process of crafting a reconciliation package; a final vote may not come for a couple months yet. 

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who along with Sinema is leading the bipartisan infrastructure talks, complained about Schumer’s tactics during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. Portman said he needs more time, which is the one thing Schumer really doesn’t want to give him.

“We want to get it right. So it’s not too much to ask that we have the time to do that,” said Portman, who is retiring at the end of this Congress. “Again, I was on with the White House [Saturday] night, negotiating some of the final details. So we’re still very much in that process. We’ll push as hard as we can. We’re working all weekend again and that’s important. It’s important we get it done because it’s an urgent matter. But we ought not to have an arbitrary deadline forcing this process.”

Yet Portman also acknowledged that the bipartisan group has dropped increased IRS funding as one of its pay fors on the infrastructure package. This IRS funding to collect more taxes was supposed to be an easy way for the bipartisan group to generate as much as $100 billion in new federal revenue to help offset the cost of its infrastructure package.

The bipartisan group made some progress this weekend, according to sources close to the talks, but there’s still a number of outstanding decisions on both policy and pay fors to be made. There seems little chance that the group can hit the Wednesday deadline, the sources said.

The bottom line: Senators in the bipartisan group said last week if the IRS money didn’t work out, they’d be hard pressed to find “real” pay fors to help cover the cost of the package. Now they’ve got to find a way around this in the face of increasing skepticism from the GOP and Democratic leadership and rank-and-file. And they have to do it fast.

Two other highlights:

→ The Senate Rules Committee is holding its first field hearing in almost two decades with a session in Atlanta today on voting rights. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) will be among those testifying. Read the NYT’s Carl Hulse on Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), chair of the Rules Committee.

→ The HELP Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday on the federal response to Covid-19. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and NIAID Director Anthony Fauci will be among those appearing. With the Delta variant surging among the unvaccinated, there will be news here.

AND IN THE HOUSE

A set-up week in the People’s House

Over on the House side, think of this more as a “prep week.” The House will vote on some important issues, including legislation to approve thousands of special visas for Afghans who worked with U.S. and NATO forces during the last 20 years of war in that troubled country.

But Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenants will really be working the House Democratic Caucus on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution. Democratic leaders and the White House want to sound out moderates for problems on that massive proposal, which is the meat of Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan with Medicare expansion and drug pricing added on. Pelosi and the leadership have a lot to do.

The Blue Dogs, Problems Solvers and other moderate Democrats were counting on the bipartisan infrastructure plan to cushion the political blow on the multi-trillion dollar budget resolution, which will also include tax increases on corporations and wealthy Americans. The moderates voted for a $715 billion Democrat-only surface transportation and water infrastructure bill, but they thought there might be a bipartisan infrastructure measure that they could pair with the budget resolution.

The House also faces a vote next week on a $900 billion-plus “minibus” appropriations bill that funds a huge chunk of the federal government minus the Pentagon and other defense programs. It also won’t include Commerce-Justice-Science, State-Foreign Operations or congressional funding, which have their own problems. 

So far, neither chamber has done anything to fund the government, and since funding expires in 73 days, House leaders really want to get something going. The House and Senate Armed Services panels are beginning work on the annual defense authorization bill in the coming weeks, so Pentagon funding could proceed after that.

It’s been clear for awhile that Congress will need to pass a continuing resolution to keep federal agencies open beyond the Sept. 30 deadline. The only question is how long that lasts and whether there is any possibility of bipartisan action on government funding until the drama over the Democrats’ massive reconciliation package plays out.

→ On a separate note, we’re continuing to watch the partisan Senate squabble over U.S. Capitol Police funding. The USCP could run out of money by mid-August and begin furloughing employees. There wasn’t a lot of movement on this last week, but at some point, the leadership will step in and settle this dispute. Maybe that will be this week!

What are we missing? Send us a note. First name [at] punchbowl [dot] news. 

Reminder: Senior staff — check your email today for The Canvass survey. We are in the middle of our push to get Hill aides to participate in our anonymous survey. Haven’t signed up yet? Check it out here.

INSIDE THE HOUSE GOP

The poll House Republicans will be reading this week

House Republican leaders will get a poll this week from the American Action Network that takes the temperature of registered voters in 51 battleground districts. AAN is the non-profit organization that, with its sister organization Congressional Leadership Fund, is some of the brains and money behind the House GOP. CLF is the super PAC.

We got our hands on the poll presentation that Republicans will get this week. This will frame the way they talk about economic issues. Check it out.

Here are some interesting data points:

→ 88% of voters say they are worried (“somewhat” or “extremely”) about the “rising cost of living,” 86% say inflation, 79% on rising gas prices and 73% say impending tax increases. This plays into themes Republicans have been pushing for months.

→ 76% of voters overall say they agree with this statement (this rises to 82% of “middle-class voters”): “Prices on everything from gas to groceries to even lumber are skyrocketing. Inflation is hitting hard-working middle-class families the hardest.” 

→ 54% of college-educated women say they agree that expanded unemployment benefits are hurting the economic recovery. 59% of voters polled overall agreed as well. 51% of voters say expanded jobless benefits is an incentive to remain unemployed.

→ 63% of those polled say they agree with “[standing] with law enforcement” instead of defunding police. 61% of independents agree.

→ 55% agree that the “Biden administration is unprepared and not taking” the situation migrant situation seriously at the U.S.-Mexico border.

STATE OF THE ART

AARP jumps into Medicare drug pricing fight

AARP is launching a seven-figure, two-week inside-the-Beltway digital ad campaign focused on pressing Congress to lower drug prices. AARP is advertising in the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN and Politico. The effort comes as Medicare and drug prices are under discussion as part of the larger infrastructure debate. A national ad campaign is next.

The group also did a phone survey in June of 1,000 registered voters age 50 and older that found three in four voters age 50 and older take at least one prescription drug. The seniors’ lobby found “more than half overall are at least somewhat concerned about affording prescription drugs for themselves or their family over the next few years.” 

Democrats want to include provisions in the upcoming budget resolution that would allow Medicare to negotiate on drug pricing, a move that could save the federal government hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade. This could help Democrats pay for expanding Medicare coverage to include hearing, vision and dental coverage in the popular program, as well as additional social spending. Democrats estimate they could get $600 billion or more in savings from the move.

The drug companies are pushing back hard, arguing that the Democrats’ proposal is a tax on the industry that would damage its ability to fund research and innovation.

Democrats are already fighting over the issue internally, with the proposal causing a split between vulnerable 2022 Democrats and their more centrist colleagues.

Here’s the ad:

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get the daily intelligence briefing. 

11:30 a.m.: Biden will speak about his administration’s progress thus far.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

1:45 p.m.: Biden will host Jordanian King Abdullah, Queen Rania and Crown Prince Hussein at the White House.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Born of a Crisis, Remote Voting in Congress Has Become a Useful Perk,” by Nick Fandos

→ “Biden Administration Transfers Its First Detainee From Guantánamo Bay,” by Carol Rosenberg and Charlie Savage

→ “The Ascension of Ron Klain,” by Mark Leibovich: “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, a longtime colleague of Mr. Klain’s … [called Klain] ‘the premier staff person, certainly of my generation.’ … ‘I probably talk to him every day, and we can finish each other’s sentences,’ said Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader. ‘If there’s a thorny problem, I’ll call him.’ … 

“Mr. Klain … paid a visit to Mr. Manchin’s houseboat on the Potomac River, where he lives when he is in Washington. The senator ordered in a pasta dinner from Nostra Cucina, his favorite Italian restaurant. ‘We had a glass of wine and really got to know each other,’ Mr. Manchin said.”

WaPo

→ “Private Israeli spyware used to hack cellphones of journalists, activists worldwide,” by Dana Priest, Craig Timberg and Souad Mekhennet

→ “Jamal Khashoggi’s wife targeted with spyware before his death,” by Dana Priest in Ankara, Turkey, Souad Mekhennet and Arthur Bouvart in Ankara

WSJ

→ “Biden’s Facebook Attack Followed Months of Frustration Inside White House,” by Andrew Restuccia and Sarah Needleman

AP

→ “Man faces 1st sentencing for felony in riot at US Capitol,” by Michael Tarm in Chicago

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

The Lookahead with Yamiche Alcindor

Our special guest on The Lookahead last night was Yamiche Alcindor, PBS NewsHour White House Correspondent and political contributor to NBC News and MSNBC. Check out what Yamiche is watching at the White House this week.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images