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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

News: Former GOP Sen. Mike Enzi of Wyoming died Monday after being injured in a bike accident last week. The four-term senator, who left office in January, was 77. Our friend Paul Kane of the Washington Post has a nice write-up of the always genial Enzi.

At 9:30 a.m. this morning, the House’s Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the Capitol will gavel in for its first hearing. This event will be covered from wire-to-wire; the big cable TV channels will be in special programming throughout the day. 

Whether there are any persuadable people still out there when it comes to the  attack is unclear. It seems like a pretty cut and dry deal. Supporters of former President Donald Trump sacked the Capitol on Jan. 6 following his speech on the Ellipse decrying the “stolen election.” Trump urged thousands of his followers to go to the Capitol, and they did. The U.S. Capitol Police weren’t prepared for the onslaught, and dozens of officers were seriously injured as Trump backers stormed the building. One rioter, Ashli Babbitt, was shot to death by a USCP officer as she tried to break into the Speaker’s Lobby off the House floor. The incident was horrific, and it left a scar both on the American psyche and all the people who were there. Trust us on this one; we were in the building for the whole awful incident.

Now, a little more than six months later, the vast majority of elected Republicans don’t want to acknowledge that Trump had any responsibility for the attack because they fear losing an election to a Trump-aligned candidate.

But we get the sense that this process won’t be nearly as easy as either side thinks as the hearings start.

Republicans’ risk:

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has made the calculation that it’d be better for Republicans to decline cooperating with the probe because he considered the rules unfair and was angry that Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn’t want the Jims — Jordan of Ohio and Banks of Indiana — on the select committee.

But now McCarthy is going to have a months-long investigation playing out on TV in which his conference will have no ability to defend their position or the former president. The best Republicans will be able to do is hold news conferences to offer their take on the committee’s proceedings; they’re doing so this morning at 8 a.m. 

Trump also remains a big problem for Republicans. The former president said this as part of a statement he issued on Monday night: “Will Nancy investigate herself and those on Capitol Hill who didn’t want additional protection, including more police and National Guard, therefore being unprepared despite the large crowd of people that everyone knew was coming?” This has become a new talking point, that Pelosi herself is responsible for the insurrection. 

The remaining three paragraphs of the rambling commentary includes the false assertion that Antifa or BLM were behind an attack that Trump just said “everyone knew was coming.” Yet as with a lot of Trump invective, logical consistency isn’t the point. It’s throwing something out there to try to confuse the situation that matters most.

Another concern for McCarthy and House Republicans in boycotting the hearings is that Trump likes having defenders on TV. For Trump, it’s the key to everything. Dominate the TV message and you win the political fight.

Instead, House Republican leadership has decided to allow Democrats and Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) to put on an infomercial showcasing the horror of Jan. 6, drawing Trump and his inner circle in. Cheney will get to deliver an opening statement. Oh, and by the way, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), will hold a news conference outside the Justice Department on Tuesday to complain about the treatment of alleged rioters arrested for their role in the Jan. 6 attack. Talk about mixed — or non-existent — messaging. 

“We’re going to make America better,” McCarthy said when we asked him Monday night about the tough position he’s in here. “We’re going to make America stronger.”

Democrats’ risk: 

The Washington Post editorial board on Monday called for the Democrats to subpoena Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump and Mark Meadows for testimony. They also said McCarthy should speak to the committee too.

But there are tons of hurdles to overcome first. Will any of these members of Trump’s inner circle speak to investigators voluntarily? We can’t imagine they will. And what if Trump exerts an executive privilege claim and refuses to make senior aides available for questioning, which seems highly possible? Will the Merrick Garland Justice Department defend the right for Meadows, Ivanka and Jared to have private conversations with the former president? Would the Justice Department attempt to hold McCarthy in contempt for refusing to testify about his interactions with Trump on Jan. 6? We can’t see that. Yet what about a reprimand or censure by the House Democratic majority for McCarthy? Again, highly unlikely it gets that far.

Democrats also have to be careful what kind of precedents they set as well. Whatever they do now can be done by a GOP-run House in 2023 if Republicans win the majority in the midterm elections.

The key here isn’t that this select committee won’t be successful without high-profile testimony. But that’s the expectation now — that Democrats will get to the bottom of what Trump was doing and saying. So they have to be very deliberate in how they go about this.

THE BOUNCEBACK

As governor of Colorado, Jared Polis knew crises were in the job description. He expected wildfires. He expected floods. He expected mass shootings. But one disaster he didn’t anticipate? The COVID-19 pandemic.

In this week’s Bounceback, we take you behind the scenes of how Colorado, with Polis at the helm, led his state through the pandemic.

Check it out.

INFRASTRUCTURE SUMMER

Can the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations be saved?

It looks like the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations are ready to fall apart. Either this is about to turn around and they’ll get a deal. Or, as the late John McCain used to say, it’s always darkest before it goes pitch black. Here’s where things stand. 

→ Republicans in the “G10” group spent part of Monday clashing with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House over a “global offer” from Democrats. The GOP senators and their aides said the offer set their negotiations backward, rather than making a deal more likely.

→ The G10 met briefly on Monday evening off the Senate floor and then broke up. There was some confusion about what was to come next. Some senators said Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio — the lead GOP negotiator — and Steve Ricchetti, a top White House aide, were going to meet to try to get the talks back on track. Other sources, however, said that wasn’t going to happen.

→ The normally low-key Portman — who’s toiled for weeks on these negotiations — seemed frustrated with reporter questions suggesting everything was falling apart, saying he’d been talking to senators in both parties all day. “I don’t know what your impatience is,” Portman told CNN’s Manu Raju. “We are trying to do something serious. It’s gonna affect you and your kids and your future.” Portman even offered to bet Raju that the Ohio Republican would be able to notch a deal and have it pass the Senate. The two didn’t wager in the end — who does that anyway?

→ Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), one of the key Democratic moderates, had a warning for Schumer, the White House and all his progressive colleagues: “I would say if the bipartisan infrastructure deal falls aparts, everything falls apart.”

“Both of them are extremely important,” Manchin added. “When one falls apart, how do you move the other one?”

This is a shot across the bow from Manchin, and it’s a fair point. Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden will struggle to pass their $3.5 trillion budget resolution if they can’t clear the nearly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. 

So now the bipartisan group heads into Tuesday’s Senate party lunches without an agreement in hand. There was a broad expectation that would’ve happened already. Schumer will come under increasing pressure from his progressives to move ahead on their budget resolution — his No. 2, Dick Durbin of Illinois, told us yesterday it’s time to bring a bill to the floor. Schumer even warned publicly that the Senate may have to stay in session all weekend in order to get a deal. 

So today is going to be very important for all involved, and we’ll be tracking everything very closely. Biden and the Senate have two basic choices: Either get a bipartisan infrastructure deal and find 10 Republicans to stick with it, or pass a multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package with infrastructure and social programs, relying only on Democratic votes. Neither is an easy lift. Yet at some point, a choice has to be made on which path the chamber will take.

This is the type of moment where presidents can force something to happen. We’ll see if Biden does that here.

The Coverage:

→ NYT: Congressional Memo: “‘It’s Painful’: Infrastructure Talks Near Either a Deal or Collapse,” by Emily Cochrane

→ WaPo: “Senate infrastructure talks in political jeopardy as infighting spills out into the open,” by Tony Romm, Seung Min Kim and Ian Duncan

→ Politico: “High-stakes infrastructure talks stall out as deadline passes" by Marianne Levine and Burgess Everett

OPENING THE SPIGOT

W.H. seeking $1 billion-plus in a hurry to help resettle Afghan allies

GOP and Democratic senators are considering an urgent $1 billion-plus request by the Pentagon and State Department to pay for the relocation of tens of thousands of Afghan translators and other personnel who worked with U.S. forces during the nearly two decade conflict, according to multiple senators and aides familiar with the situation. 

This may also be only the initial round of funding for the “Special Immigrant Visa” program for Afghans, cautioned the sources. The $600 million being sought by the State Department and $500 million by the Defense Department only covers the period up until Sept. 30, when FY 2021 ends. More funding will have to be approved for FY 2022, the sources said.

The hastily delivered appeal for more money for the Afghan SIV program comes as the Biden administration begins to unwind itself from the longest war in American history. One of the biggest challenges is the fate of thousands of Afghans who worked with U.S. and allied forces during the conflict. There have been growing calls in Congress to help these Afghans, with lawmakers fearful of what would happen to them in the event of a Taliban takeover. 

Yet the full scale of the relocation effort is still unclear. By some estimates, there could be 30,000 or more Afghans eventually involved in the SIV program, plus family members. Hard data has been difficult for Congress to obtain at this point.

The roughly $1.1 billion in new funding being sought for Afghan resettlement efforts may end up being attached to an emerging Senate compromise over additional money for the U.S. Capitol Police and National Guard. Both the USCP and National Guard racked up huge expenses guarding the Capitol complex after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Without more money soon, the USCP and National Guard have warned lawmakers they could be forced to furlough some employees beginning next month.

Altogether, the cost of the combined package could exceed $2 billion, said sources familiar with the situation. 

The USCP and National Guard would receive roughly $600 million-plus combined, with the vast bulk of that total going to the Guard. Another $300 million would go to the Architect of the Capitol to “harden” windows and doors in the Capitol complex, as well as for other security improvements. Then add in the $1.1 billion-Afghan SIV funding. The Office of Refugee Resettlement would get $25 million for Afghan-related activities.

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), ranking member on the Appropriations Committee, said a deal on the USCP-National Guard boost could come this week.

The Coverage: Read this story from our friends Jeremy Herb and Phil Mattingly at CNN, it covers a lot of the same issues: "White House officials tell lawmakers they will need $1 billion in emergency funding for Afghan visa effort"

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Pop-Up Conversation with Cecilia Rouse

Join us on Friday, July 30 at 10:00 a.m. for a virtual conversation with Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Cecilia Rouse.  The conversation will focus on news of the day, challenges facing workers coming out of the pandemic, and efforts to change the policy around paid family and medical leave. Paid Leave for All is the partner for the conversation. Paid Leave for All Director Dawn Huckelbridge and Executive Director of Open Society – U.S. Tom Perriello will join Anna afterward for a fireside chat.

JOB MOVES

Penny Lee and Jeff Carroll’s new gigs

Penny Lee, a longtime Democratic operative who was most recently at Invariant, is joining the Financial Technology Association as its first executive director. FTA, which launched earlier this year, has 15 member companies including Brex, Klarna and Plaid.

Jeff Carroll, who just stepped down from his post as staff director at the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is going to Capitol Counsel as partner. Carroll, a longtime aide to Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), chair of the Energy and Commerce panel, is a well-known figure in both House Democratic and New Jersey political circles.

MOMENTS

8 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik will speak about the Jan. 6 committee at the House Triangle.

9:45 a.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar will brief reporters after their party meeting

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their intelligence briefing.

Noon: Harris will speak to the National Bar Association

12:30 p.m: Jen Psaki will brief.

2 p.m.: Senate lunches break up and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will speak to reporters.

2:20 p.m.: Biden will visit the office of the Director of National Intelligence. He’ll speak to the intelligence community while there.

4:45 p.m.: Harris will “host a conversation about voting rights with Tribal leaders and other Native leaders from Alaska Native and American Indian communities.” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will also attend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Takes Two Paths to Wind Down Iraq and Afghan Wars,” by Annie Karni and Eric Schmitt

→ “Latino Voters Moved Toward Republicans. Now Biden Wants Them Back,” by Jennifer Medina and Lisa Lerer

WaPo

→ “Biden, pulling combat forces from Iraq, seeks to end the post-9/11 era,” by Anne Gearan

→ “From ports to rail yards, global supply lines struggle amid virus outbreaks in the developing world,” by David J. Lynch

→ “‘A tipping point’: Government officials, health groups move to require coronavirus vaccines for workers,” by Dan Diamond

WSJ

→ “Aon, Willis Towers Scrap $30 Billion Merger Amid Antitrust Impasse,” by Ben Dummett, Leslie Scism and Dave Sebastian

→ “Judge Extends Deadline for FTC to Refile Facebook Antitrust Suit,” by Ryan Tracy

AP

→ “Biden’s 1st visit to intel agency to contrast with Trump’s,” by Nomaan Merchant

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images