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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Well, good morning. Give them credit. The G10 — the bipartisan infrastructure group of 10 senators — and the White House got an infrastructure proposal locked down on Wednesday. And then they got a large majority to vote to advance it on the Senate floor. Final passage could come at some point next week, a potentially huge breakthrough after weeks of intense negotiations that almost fell apart several times.

How did this happen?

→ President Joe Biden wanted it. Biden and GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) weren’t able to get there, but when a president leans in and empowers competent and focused staff, things happen. 

→ Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) — a lame duck — wanted it too. Being a lame duck, Portman had a little more freedom to operate than other Republicans. Portman met on Tuesday night for more than six hours with Steve Ricchetti, a top Biden White House aide, to hammer out some details of the agreement.

→ Sinemanchin — Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — demanded it, and without them, there was no path forward for any part of Biden’s agenda.

→ We all scoffed at — or doubted, at least — the “dual-track strategy” (bipartisan infrastructure and partisan reconciliation) devised by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House. It still may not work, but it’s the only possible solution. It’s on track at the moment.

→ The G10 made it work: Not to be cheesy, but there’s something about this group that makes them more effective than other legislative clans. We talked about Sinema, Manchin and Portman already. The other four Republican senators — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney and Bill Cassidy — all voted to impeach former President Donald Trump, which shows they’re ready to buck their party if needed. Collins and Murkowksi also have voted for several of Biden’s nominees. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) will do his own thing, and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) has been yearning to be a bipartisan dealmaker for his entire tenure in the Senate. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) may have as much political need for this deal as anyone in the Senate. In the end, the unique dynamics of the group, both personally and politically, helped make it happen.

→ The 50-50 Senate leaves more room for bipartisan deal making than many believed.

What they said:

The 10 senators held a celebratory press conference in the Dirksen Building after the Senate voted 67-22 to move forward with their proposal (technically, the Senate invoked cloture on the motion to proceed).

Portman: “It happened from the center out. In other words, at a time when Washington seems broken, this group of members behind me came together, along with others, and decided we were going to do something great for our country.”

Sinema: “The 10 senators you see here together have been working for months with a deep desire to solve problems and deliver real results for Americans across this country. And to do so not with ideology, but with a focus on practical results.”

Sinema noted the group was still “finalizing portions of the package, but we expect that to be done very soon.” Friday and the weekend are coming very fast.

What caught our eye on the vote last night:

→ Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s No. 2 and No. 3, both voted no. They both have an eye on being a future leader. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), another potential GOP leader down the road, was also a no. Thune has signaled he may vote yes on final passage.

→ Of the 17 GOP yes votes, three (Roy Blunt, Richard Burr and Portman) aren’t running for re-election; seven (Jim Risch, Thom Tillis, Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Capito, Collins and Cassidy) just won re-election in 2020; and five (Mike Crapo, Chuck Grassley, John Hoeven, Todd Young and Murkowski) are up for re-election in 2022. 

→ Schumer deserves credit here. He held all of his Democrats together. That’s a big feat in the majority. 

What’s next?

Here’s a portion of what we sent to Premium subscribers last night. We projected out the process farther than this, and you should subscribe to Premium if you want additional deep reporting on the legislative process.

Where are the tripwires?

→ Amendments: Portman said the bipartisan group was “very open to amendments. We want this to be a fair process so that Republicans and Democrats alike can have an opportunity to try to amend the legislation. We’re both committed to that.”

We asked Portman afterward about “poison pill” amendments that could sink the bill — say eliminating or scaling back pay fors, which would force reductions on the spending side of the package. And clearly there may be amendments from Democrats to boost water or transit funding.

“I haven’t heard of any amendments that are poison pills,” Portman said, although he noted that all amendments will be considered under a 60-vote threshold, of course.

“I think people are interested in getting to ‘Yes’ here,” Portman said. “Even if they didn’t vote for the bill tonight, they know that it’s good policy and great for the country.”

→ Pay fors: This is clearly a concern for the G10. There’s skepticism in both parties whether the proposed pay fors — which we broke for Premium subscribers in yesterday’s Midday edition — can withstand rigorous scrutiny, as well as what it would mean for the package if they don’t. This will be a huge area of focus during the week ahead.

→ The House: Progressives are going to be a big challenge if and when this legislation gets to the House. And they’re already warning that they won’t vote for any bipartisan infrastructure bill unless it’s accompanied by a multi-trillion dollar Senate approved reconciliation bill. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has backed them up on this. 

“We look forward to seeing the progress made by the twenty senators,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), in a statement. “But the votes of the Congressional Progressive Caucus members are not guaranteed until we examine the details, and until the reconciliation bill is agreed to and passed with our priorities sufficiently funded.

House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) has demanded a House-Senate conference on his infrastructure bill, which is being modified by the Senate bipartisan agreement. 

This is a problem, one the White House can’t ignore. But we also know that Pelosi & Co. are realists. Faced with the possibility of not passing either bill this fall when reconciliation comes up while also fighting over the debt limit and government funding, there’ll be limits to what can be done. And the 2022 elections — with the possibility of losing the Congress — will loom that much larger. So threats should be taken with a grain of salt at this point. 

→ What will House Republicans do? House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, his eye firmly on the speaker’s gavel, doesn’t seem like he’s in any mood to give Biden a big policy win. Yet voting against infrastructure, especially a paid-for “hard” infrastructure bill that will have some significant Senate GOP support, won’t be easy either.

Yet with Pelosi and progressives tying together the Democrats’ massive reconciliation bill and the bipartisan infrastructure deal, it’s going to make it easier to rally the majority of House Republicans against both bills. 

The Coverage:

The front-page treatment in the NYT

MOVERS

‘Kyrsten Sinema Week’ rolls on 

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is Washington’s Most Interesting Woman. 

Against all the odds, she and Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) led the way in crafting a high-profile bipartisan infrastructure deal after weeks of arduous talks. That announcement came a day after Sinema had a one-on-one meeting with President Joe Biden. And right as the big infrastructure deal was being unveiled, Sinema came out against spending $3.5 trillion on a Democratic reconciliation package, although Sinema said she’d support beginning debate on the issue by voting for the party’s budget resolution. 

Sinema basically gave with one hand while taking away with the other.

As the 117th Congress unfolds, it seems Sinema is the only person on Capitol Hill who can out-Manchin Joe Manchin right now in terms of media attention. Yet unlike Manchin, Sinema often shuns reporters. Outright ignores them. Which makes her that much more interesting for some in the media.

Most people didn’t expect Sinema would be the one to help lead a bipartisan group of senators to a major infrastructure deal. Some of her House friends aren’t surprised that Sinema was able to deliver, however. She has a surprisingly wide range of relationships that helped pull this together, both on the Hill and inside the Biden administration.

Sinema is also a good strategist and has a vision for where she wants to go, said sources close to the career pol. 

So here’s what is being said about Sinema these days: she’s getting fulsome praise from Republicans and condemnation from Democrats.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called her stance against the Democratic reconciliation package “courageous.” McConnell extolled Sinema and Manchin for opposing Democratic demands to dump the filibuster and “defending the institution” of the Senate. 

And in an unusual move, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) penned an NBC News op-ed dedicated to crediting Sinema for the bipartisan deal.

“It’s rare to have an elected official from one party publicly praising another from the opposite party, but I’m doing just that because it’s so essential for the future of our nation that Sinema holds fast in keeping the filibuster intact,” Tillis declared. 

“From Barry Goldwater to John McCain, Arizona has had its fair share of mavericks in the U.S. Senate. Arizonans should be proud of Sinema for standing firm in preserving the filibuster and sticking to her principles when they matter the most,” he added. Read the full piece here.

The North Carolina Republican didn’t mention Portman once in the op-ed, by the way.

The love from Republicans isn’t echoed by Sinema’s own party, though. Following her Wednesday afternoon budget reconciliation statement, members of “The Squad” slammed Sinema, a popular thing to do on the left in 2021.

“Good luck tanking your own party’s investment on childcare, climate action, and infrastructure while presuming you’ll survive a 3 vote House margin — especially after choosing to exclude members of color from negotiations and calling that a ‘bipartisan accomplishment,’” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said on Twitter.

“Sinema seems not to care that her own state is flooding, the west is burning, and infrastructure around the country is crumbling,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) added. “Sinema is more interested in gaining GOP friends and blocking much needed resources, than fighting for her residents’ future.”

And Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) explicitly threatened to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure deal “without a reconciliation package that meets this moment.”

Sinema is also getting hit at home from the left. The Daily Beast reported yesterday that progressive advocacy group Just Democracy launched a six-figure ad campaign criticizing Sinema for protecting the filibuster and thus blocking Democratic priorities in the Senate. The ads will run on Arizona cable stations.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who isn’t shy about bashing those who disagree with his positions, was very deliberate when we asked him about Sinema, the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget resolution and reconciliation.

“All I will say is we’re moving on a two-track process. Next week, we’re going to have 50 votes to pass a budget resolution,” Sanders said. “And at the end of the day, I believe we will have a reconciliation package that will provide enormous support for working families in this country at three-and-a-half trillion dollars.” Sanders wouldn’t go any further than that.

We tried to talk to Sinema about all this on Wednesday night as she was leaving a celebratory press conference on the bipartisan infrastructure agemment (see above.) 

“I’m only doing infrastructure today,” Sinema insisted. Then she added: “I feel like you got so much recently though.”

HAPPENING TOMORROW

Pop Up Conversation with Cecilia Rouse

Join us tomorrow (Friday, July 30) at 10:00 a.m. for a virtual conversation with Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Cecilia Rouse. The conversation will focus on news of the day, challenges facing workings coming out of the pandemic, and efforts to change the policy around paid family and medical leave. 

​Paid Leave for All Director Dawn Huckelbridge and Executive Director of Open Society — U.S. Tom Perriello​ will join Anna afterward for a fireside chat.

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Punchbowl News sits down with Sen. Mark Warner

Punchbowl News sat down with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon for our first in-person editorial event at The Roost on Capitol Hill yesterday morning. We focused on infrastructure negotiations, access to capital for minority-owned businesses and Covid relief legislation.

Warner weighed in on the state of infrastructure talks on Capitol Hill, the importance of targeted relief for Black-owned businesses and the prospect of another Covid relief bill. 

Solomon joined us afterwards for a fireside chat and discussed Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program, the possible benefits of raising the corporate tax rate and his concerns on labor inflation.

Watch the full interview.

SPENDING

Senate leadership trying to clear GOP roadblocks on Capitol security bill

Senate GOP and Democratic leaders are scrambling to free up a $2.1 billion funding bill that includes emergency money for the U.S. Capitol Police and National Guard. The legislation will also help to begin resettlement efforts for tens of thousands of Afghans who aided U.S. forces during the longest conflict in American history.

The hope was that the Senate could pass the funding bill today and get it to the House before that chamber leaves town for the August recess. The Capitol Police and National Guard have warned that they could start furloughing employees if Congress doesn’t provide additional funding by next month.

But there were seven GOP “holds” on the bill, as a number of Republicans remain opposed to the Afghan funding. There are no Democratic holds, as far as we can tell.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was working to resolve the Republican concerns on Wednesday night, and both sides told us it could still come up today.

Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana, one of the Republicans objecting to the bill over the Afghan funding, said he believed that the Pentagon already had enough money to pay for any resettlement efforts. And he doesn’t want the government to run up more red ink to cover the cost of the resettlements, even though he supports the effort.

“That could be done through funds that are there in the Defense Department,” Braun said. “In essence, we’re borrowing the money to do it. I don’t think we’re offsetting that, we’re going to end up borrowing it.”

Braun added: “It’s another example of even policy that I like, I’m not going to vote for policy that I like if it’s got an unwholesome way to pay for it that ends up borrowing more money from our kids and grandkids.”

Braun, though, seemed to indicate he’d release his hold as long as he can get a vote highlighting his concerns. He also acknowledged that the measure will pass eventually, despite his opposition.

“I’m not going to say that I’d restrict that. But I know where I’ll be,” Braun said. “It’s going to delay the process a little bit, and I’ll get a vote on a point of order, and it will pass. That’s the way things work around here.”

MOMENTS

9:45 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and other House Republicans will talk about President Joe Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership on the east front steps of the Capitol. 

10 a.m.: Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will receive their daily intelligence briefing.

11:30 a.m.: The House Freedom Caucus will speak about expelling Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) from the House Republican Conference. 

11:45 a.m.: Biden will sign S. 957, the DUMP Opioids Act, and S. 1910, the Major Medical Facility Authorization Act.

1 p.m.: Biden and Harris will receive their weekly economic briefing. … Karine Jean-Pierre will brief. 

2 p.m.: Harris and SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman “will virtually drop by a meeting with small business owners to discuss the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal and the Administration’s efforts to help small businesses.”

4 p.m.: Biden will speak in the East Room about “​​ the next steps in our effort to get more Americans vaccinated and combat the spread of the Delta variant.”

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “The F.D.A. extends the J&J vaccine’s shelf life to six months,” by Jesus Jiménez

WaPo

→ “As Trump pushed for probes of 2020 election, he called acting AG Rosen almost daily,” by Josh Dawsey and Devlin Barrett

→ “Arizona’s GOP ballot review has raised more than $5.7 million in private donations, organizers say,” by Roz Helderman

→ “CDC reversal on indoor masking prompts experts to ask, ‘Where’s the data?,’” by Joel Achenbach, Yasmeen Abutaleb, Ben Guarino and Carolyn Y. Johnson  

→ “Supreme Court’s job approval rating dipped over last year, poll finds,” by Robert Barnes

WSJ

→ “Jared Kushner Is Launching an Investment Firm in Miami,” by Konrad Putzier

→ “AstraZeneca Loses Money on Covid-19 Vaccine for Second Straight Quarter,” by Jenny Strasburg and Cecilia Butini

→ “Republicans Threaten to Block Two Biden Nominations Over Russian Nord Stream 2 Pipeline,” by Ian Talley

AP

→ “Officials in Tokyo alarmed as cases hit record highs,” by Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images