View in web browser

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

We spent part of Wednesday trying to come up with a nickname for September, which is going to be about as bad a month as we can remember for perilous legislative and political deadlines. These are our suggestions so far:

→ Messtember (Jake’s favorite)

→ Septemaggedon 

→ Slamtember (Ugh Bres)

→ FiscalCliffTwotember

→ Helltember (Not bad)

→ The Bad Time.

Ok, it was only like five minutes. But you get the point. We like Messtember the best. September is going to be the start of what could be a very ugly patch for Capitol Hill and the White House.

And we’re not alone in feeling this way. Even as the Senate left town on Wednesday morning after passing a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget resolution, we encountered the same low-level dread from fellow journalists, staffers, lobbyists and lawmakers. Everyone knows what’s coming in a few short weeks.

The biggest issue, of course, is the growing possibility of a concurrent fight over government funding and the debt limit. Both parties are talking past each other right now, which makes it feel like a replay of the 2011 debt crisis. That episode resulted in the first-ever downgrading of the U.S. credit rating. This time, a possible government shutdown is thrown in for good measure. This is Fiscal Cliff-like (Remember 2012-2013?).

President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer all repeated the same line in public and private on Wednesday — Republicans won’t let a default happen. Which is why Senate Democrats didn’t include language raising the debt limit in the budget resolution they pushed through on Wednesday by 50-49 vote. Instead, Democratic congressional leaders — with the White House’s blessing — will likely fadd it to a must-pass continuing resolution to keep the government open. That resolution will be introduced when Congress returns in mid-September. Government funding runs out on Sept. 30. There’s no firm date for when the debt limit will be reached, but CBO has estimated “most likely in October or November.”

“They’re not going to let us default,” Biden said of Republicans on Wednesday. “Eight trillion of that is on the Republican watch.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, however, has already warned that his GOP colleagues won’t go along with a debt limit increase if Democrats pass their $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure” package. A total of 46 Senate Republicans have signed onto a letter saying just that. Instead, Republicans are talking about “structural reforms” to federal spending, which in the past meant entitlement reform — although you’d never hear anyone say that right now.

Pressure will grow on Biden and Congress to cut a deal as the deadline gets closer — and financial markets start to even smell a whiff of a potential default in the air. Of course, we don’t believe that will happen. We see some short-term extensions being enacted until a solution is found. 

But that will only increase McConnell’s leverage. And besides, a short-term funding-debt limit extension, or series of them, is no way to run a government.

Here’s the other deadlines to watch out for in September:

→ Sept. 6: Enhanced federal unemployment benefits approved under the American Rescue Plan expire. A number of GOP-run states have already begun to withhold them.

→ Sept. 11: This is the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks  Biden initially ordered an end to the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan by this date, but the deadline was moved up to Aug. 31.

→ Sept. 15: House and Senate committees must finish drafting their portions of the Democrats’ big reconciliation bill. This is going to be particularly difficult to do if there’s a debt limit-government funding crisis.

→ Sept. 30: Government funding runs out. Remember all the possible options here: a yearlong omnibus (not very likely), a minibus (also not very likely) and then continuing resolutions of various lengths. A CR, though, would keep Trump-era spending intact, which is not what the Democrats want. 

→ Sept. 30: Surface transportation program authorization expires. 

→ Sept. 30: National flood insurance program authorization expires.

→ Oct. 3: Latest federal eviction moratorium expires, if a federal court doesn’t strike it down first.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

Census numbers out today. Have Republicans already won the House?

The Census Bureau will release district level census data today, the first step in the decennial redistricting process.

But Republicans and Democrats have this lingering elation or dread — depending on which side of the aisle you are on — the GOP is already close to winning back the House even before one vote is cast in the 2022 midterms.

Republicans need five seats to win back the majority. There already have been key Democratic retirements in Wisconsin, where Rep. Ron Kind called it quits, and in Illinois, where Rep. Cheri Bustos — who chaired the DCCC last cycle — retired. Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania is running for Senate, putting another swing seat in play.

The GOP will pick up seats in Texas and Florida, where Republicans are ascendant. Republicans also control the redistricting process in far more states than Democrats, giving them a huge edge.

California, the largest of House delegations, will lose a seat for the first time ever. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio will also lose one seat each.

Democrats will try to offset GOP gains with pickups in states they control, even if that state is losing a seat overall. For instance, New York Democrats will try to draw their new map in a way that allows them to net a one seat gain, despite the delegation continuing to shrink. Democrats in Maryland — which is keeping the same size House delegation — are looking at ways they can redraw districts to help Democrats gain a seat. Democrats already have a 7-1 advantage there.

So redistricting may not turn out to be the huge bonanza that Republicans had once predicted, but it should help them overall.

The census results have already been delayed for months due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and legal challenges to new House maps will play out in the weeks and months ahead. Which means this will all spill over deep into 2022.

The Coverage:

→ Politico: “Redistricting sprint begins with major census data drop,” by Ally Mutnick and Zach Montellaro: “Altogether, the maps could tilt control of Congress for the next decade, but they’ll come out one by one at first. Strategists from both parties predict that some states will finalize maps as soon as September and that roughly half of the states will set their new lines by the end of the year. The rest will follow in the first few months of 2022.”

→ NYT: “Let the Gerrymandering (and the Legal Battles) Begin,” by Nick Corasaniti: “With Democrats clinging to a slim margin in the House of Representatives, control of the chamber in 2022 could be decided through congressional redistricting alone: Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida are adding new seats through reapportionment, and G.O.P.-dominated state legislatures will steer much more of the redistricting process, allowing them to draw more maps than Democrats.”

→ AP: “Census data kicks off effort to reshape US House districts,” by David A. Lieb and Nicholas Riccardi: “The GOP will control redistricting in 20 states accounting for 187 U.S. House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. By contrast, Democrats will control redistricting in just eight states accounting for 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where the loss of a seat in each gives them a chance to squeeze out Republican incumbents.”

WHAT DEMOCRATS LIKE TO SEE

NYT A1 on the $3.5T budget

THE NEW THING ON THE HILL

Republicans: Banned from social media

A new GOP symbol of pride is getting booted off social media platforms. 

Everyone knows about former President Donald Trump’s ban from Facebook and Twitter following the Jan. 6 insurrection. But in recent months, a growing number of Republicans on Capitol Hill have been suspended from online networks due to Covid misinformation. 

Spreading dangerous lies about vaccines, masks and more, right-wing representatives are drawing the attention of Twitter and Youtube. And on the way, some Republicans are reveling in the notoriety.

→ Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) video claiming cloth masks don’t work was taken down from YouTube and earned him a one-week posting ban from the site. Paul violated the company’s policy banning Covid-19-related misinformation.

In response, Paul said the ban was “A badge of honor” and labeled YouTube workers “leftwing cretins.”

→ Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is a regular Twitter rules offender. Greene’s been hit with three suspensions this year from the platform — two for spreading Covid vaccine misinformation and one for promoting election fraud conspiracy theories. Greene’s most recent ban came on Tuesday when she said vaccines were failing.

→ Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is also a frequent purveyor of Covid misinformation and earned his own seven-day YouTube ban in June. Johnson promoted ​​hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin as treatments for Covid.

→ Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) was suspended from Twitter for offensive tweets after he tweeted in the days after the Capitol attack. “We have more arrests for stealing a podium on Jan. 6th than we do for stealing an election on November 3rd!” Moore later deactivated his personal account.

The phenomenon of reveling in the social media bans fits into wider GOP messaging of bashing Big Tech for censorship of conservatives. It plays well with the base. As tech giants get more aggressive with blocking pandemic lies, expect the outrage machine to keep chugging away.

Meanwhile, Steve Bannon sent an email hawking Gettr, the new social media site the right is trying to make popular. 

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

11:15 a.m.: Biden will speak about lowering drug prices.

12:20 p.m.: Biden will leave D.C. from Fort McNair for Wilmington.

12:30 p.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief reporters.

1:10 p.m.: Biden will arrive in Wilmington. 

2:15 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a meeting with businesses to discuss the care economy.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “The F.D.A. will approve a third dose of vaccine for people with weak immune systems,” by Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland

→ “As Cuomo Departs, Contenders for Power Begin to Emerge,” by Katie Glueck: “Some Democrats have suggested that candidates in this year’s New York City mayoral race, including Kathryn Garcia, the runner-up in the party’s primary, and even the city’s current mayor, Bill de Blasio, could explore a run, too. (For his part, Mr. Cuomo strained to protect his legacy and future standing in his resignation speech.)

“At the moment, the most significant question in the minds of strategists, donors, political observers and even some potential candidates is whether Letitia James, the attorney general, will run. … 

“Thomas P. DiNapoli, the state comptroller, has not ruled out a bid. Representative Thomas Suozzi has had calls and meetings about the possibility of a run, though he is focused now on negotiations in Congress over the federal deduction for state and local taxes. 

“Steven Bellone, the Suffolk County executive, is strongly considering a run for governor next year, according to a person close to him who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. This person noted that Mr. Bellone had recently hired a high-dollar fund-raiser. Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, recently gave $50,000 to Mr. Bellone’s executive campaign, campaign finance records show.”

→ “Taliban Advances in Afghanistan Could Bring Political Peril for Biden,” by Michael Crowley

WaPo

→ “Democratic divisions emerge after Senate adopts $3.5 trillion budget,” by Tony Romm

→ “Giuliani told agents it was okay to ‘throw a fake’ during political campaign,” by Devlin Barrett

→ “Biden administration tries to mobilize international diplomatic effort to halt Taliban,” by Karen DeYoung

WSJ

→ “Inflation Stayed High in July as Economy Rebounded,” by Gwynn Guilford

→ “​​U.S. Budget Deficit Narrowed to $2.5 Trillion in First 10 Months of Fiscal Year,” by John McCormick

Politico

→ “How Schumer’s kept his Democrats in array — so far,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett

→ “Dems plot last-ditch voting rights push as midterm clock ticks,” by Heather Caygle, Marianne LeVine and Sarah Ferris

Enjoying Punchbowl News AM?

Subscribe 10 friends with your unique link (below) and get a Punchbowl News hat!

Your referral link is: 

You can see all the rewards in here!

Or share via

You currently have: 0 referrals

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images