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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Breaking at 5 a.m.: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is running for re-election. He will be 89 on Election Day 2022. Here is the announcement, which has a gif of Grassley running before dawn. Republican leadership will be very happy with this announcement. Iowa would’ve been way more competitive if Grassley didn’t run. 

New: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer filed cloture late Thursday night to break a GOP filibuster of a House-passed government funding bill to keep federal agencies open until Dec. 3. 

The Senate vote on the motion to proceed to this bill — which also includes language to suspend the debt limit until Dec. 2022 — will take place on Monday at 5:30 p.m. In case you were wondering, that’s just 72 hours before the government shuts down.

“Every single member in this chamber is going on record as to whether they support keeping the government open and averting a default, or support shutting us down and careening our country towards a default," Schumer said. 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans will filibuster this bill, preventing any action on it, and they have more than enough votes to prevent cloture. Democrats will then have to decide on a next step for government funding and the debt limit. This includes moving a debt-limit increase on their own, possibly as part of a separate reconciliation package. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that her department will exhaust its borrowing authority sometime in October, while government funding runs out on Sept. 30. So the immediate crisis for Democrats will be tackling the funding issue. Democrats can then use a separate track to raise the debt limit. 

McConnell’s tactics here have infuriated Democrats, who say Republicans are threatening to provoke an economic crisis in order to score political points. But with the funding and debt clocks ticking, Democrats will be forced to scramble to come up with a response. And quickly.

THE BIDEN AGENDA

Manchin splits with Democrats, and what’s next with Biden’s priorities 

Manchin’s red line

News here from Bloomberg’s Steve Dennis: 

​​Senator Joe Manchin said Thursday he doesn’t support expanding Medicare benefits without first addressing the program’s long-term solvency, again putting him at odds with Senator Bernie Sanders and other key liberals as they negotiate President Joe Biden’s economic agenda.

Asked about Democrats’ plans to expand benefits for dental, vision and hearing in the upcoming budget reconciliation bill, the West Virginia Democrat pointed to the program’s long-term financial problems instead.

“I will say this about Medicare. We need to stabilize it. By 2026, you understand, the trust fund is going to be insolvent,” he said. “That means there’s going to be an awful lot of cuts to a lot of people who depend on the Medicare they’re getting today. I want to make sure that we are stabilizing what we have before we start going down this expansion.” … 

Asked if he still supports a work requirement for the child tax credit, Manchin elaborated that he wants “work requirements for everything. Means testing and work requirements.”

Manchin’s view here, as our friend Steve notes, puts him at odds with Sanders as the party tries to coalesce around a Medicare expansion plan for their massive $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. Manchin has made similar comments before, but in the heat of this current debate, it’s notable that the West Virginia Democrat is putting space between himself and the left flank of his party. Yet another divide for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Joe Biden to bridge.

What’s Pelosi up to on Biden’s agenda?

We’ve been watching Speaker Nancy Pelosi for long enough to have a pretty good idea what she’s up to here, and where she may go next on reconciliation. 

As we noted yesterday in the AM edition, Pelosi’s play is to try to get a framework together to demonstrate to progressives that party leaders are making headway on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. That would provide House Democratic leaders with a chance to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill next week, thus preventing a revolt by their moderates.

On Thursday, Pelosi announced a revenue framework with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — even if the framework was seemingly only agreed upon by Schumer and Pelosi. (The framework was Pelosi’s idea, we’re told.)

Pelosi’s also picked up the phone and called Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), chair of the Budget Committee. Pelosi urged him to hold a hearing to begin assembling the reconciliation package. He’ll do that Saturday afternoon. More progress to show the progressives. 

Yet the reality here is that the reconciliation package that makes it to the House floor won’t be the same legislation marked up by the Budget Committee. It will face big changes following discussions with the Senate. But Pelosi will have something in her pocket to again prove her commitment to progressives on moving the most comprehensive reconciliation language possible.

We have to guess Pelosi and the rest of her leadership team are going to spend Friday and this weekend trying to nail down more agreement between the disparate factions between the main factions inside the caucus. They’ll work the phones, trying to line up support for moving ahead on the infrastructure bill. 

When the House returns Monday, Democratic leaders will likely begin consideration of the infrastructure legislation, as Pelosi promised to Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and other moderates. The vote can be postponed several days under House rules. We still don’t believe Pelosi will hold a vote she is going to lose in order to prove a point to moderates, and her actions over the last few days seem to back that up.

Pelosi needs progressives to back off their threats in order to pass the infrastructure bill. That means she needs help from Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and a key player in this debate. Pelosi and Jayapal met privately for 90 minutes earlier this week, and each is very clear on where the other stands. 

Pelosi has also promised moderates that “we would not have House Members vote for a bill with a higher topline than would be passed by the Senate.” So that means they’ll have to pare back any reconciliation package before putting it on the floor. 

And Pelosi said something at her news conference Thursday that stuck out to us. 

“I’ve always been very calm about this,” Pelosi said. “Because it always happens the same way. All this bluster and this and that and who’s there and who’s there. But at the end of the day, we will be unified for the American people and we couldn’t be better led than by Joe Biden and his vision — his vision for America’s working families. … So, one day at a time.” 

One of the characteristics that defines Pelosi is her ability to stay focused in the midst of legislative upheaval. Pelosi doesn’t believe, but rather knows she’ll get the votes for this, even with just a three-vote margin in the House. Pelosi will only bring this package to the floor when she has the support needed to pass it, and not a minute sooner.

For what it’s worth: President Joe Biden did not meet with any Democratic lawmakers Thursday, sources told us. There was talk of a meeting of House moderates with Biden or White House aides, but that never came to fruition. Senate moderates and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) were scheduled to meet with NEC Director Brian Deese, Steve Ricchetti, Louisa Terrell and Susan Rice in the Capitol yesterday evening.

New: Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) will join Anna on Oct. 6 at 2:30 p.m. for a virtual one-on-one conversation about the role private capital is playing to spur investment in renewable energy and infrastructure industries. The event is the second in a two-part series on “Investing in America” looking at how private capital is helping boost the U.S. economy. Afterward, AIC’s CEO Drew Maloney and Steve Luker, CEO of Catalyze, will join Anna for a fireside conversation. RSVP

STATE OF THE ART

New: Democrats get $5M worth of air cover on Biden’s agenda

Building Back Together, a Democratic outside group, will spend $5 million on TV and digital ads praising lawmakers for supporting President Joe Biden’s agenda. 

Here’s an example of the ad running in Iowa Rep. Cindy Axne’s Iowa district.

The ads will run on TV in Phoenix (Rep. Tom O’Halleran), Atlanta (Rep. Carolyn Bordeaux), Kansas City, Mo., (Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas), Detroit (Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens), Las Vegas (Rep. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford), New York (Reps. Tom Malinowski and Mikie Sherrill), Des Moines (Axne) and Orlando (Rep. Stephanie Murphy). In Texas, they’ll be in Spanish for Reps. Vincente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar. They’ll be up on digital across the country.

This is the kind of ad campaign that Democratic lawmakers will appreciate. They’re being asked to take tough votes in coming weeks and months, and they’ll need all the political cover they can get.

THE INVESTIGATION

Jan. 6 subpoenas raise stakes in battle with Trump

Thursday’s announcement by the Jan. 6 select committee that it had subpoenaed four top aides to former President Donald Trump — includes ex-Rep. Mark Meadows, Trump’s last White House chief of staff — takes the fight between Trump and Democrats to a whole new level.

Trump issued a long, rambling statement on Thursday vowing to fight the subpoenas from the “Unselect Committee,” arguing that they violate executive privilege.

“We will fight the Subpoenas on Executive Privilege and other grounds, for the good of our Country, while we wait to find out whether or not Subpoenas will be sent out to Antifa and BLM for the death and destruction they have caused in tearing apart our Democrat-run cities throughout America,” Trump said.

The Biden administration and Justice Department will now have to decide how they’ll respond to Trump’s executive-privilege claim. In subpoenaing Meadows, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino and Kash Patel, former chief at the Pentagon — but especially Meadows and Scavino — House Democrats are seeking information and testimony from the highest level of West Wing aides, essentially reaching into the Oval Office itself. The precedent set here is one that President Joe Biden may face if Republicans grab control of the House in 2022, so the administration faces a delicate balance. The panel’s subpoena for former Trump adviser Steve Bannon doesn’t appear to raise the same constitutional issues, although Bannon and Trump will likely vigorously contest it.

Democrats on the select committee also note that they can appeal to the Justice Department for help in enforcing the subpoenas, perhaps even with criminal contempt charges, which is something they didn’t have available to them when Trump was still in office.

"We may have additional tools now that we didn’t before, including a Justice Department that may be willing to pursue criminal contempt when people deliberately flout compulsory process," Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told reporters on Thursday.

But the other challenge here for Democrats — as we’ve said before — is the calendar. It’s already almost October. Trump and his ex-aides will look to slow down this process as much as possible. They’ll use every legal maneuver their lawyers can come up with to drag this process out. This investigation — at least the congressional piece of it — will end in Jan. 2023 if Republicans win the House. Democrats know they’re running late, and they moved to subpoenas as quickly as they could once the select committee was up and running.

It’s going to be close, though. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who chairs the select committee, said it may seek testimony from “hundreds of people,” including lawmakers. That’s a a huge challenge for the panel logistically, especially if there are multiple court cases. We would expect these subpoenas to be forthcoming pretty soon as well.

For Democrats, the probe also serves another purpose. Trump is back on the political trail again; he’ll be in Georgia this weekend appearing at an event for Herschel Walker, who Trump has endorsed in the Senate race there. Yet everywhere Trump goes, he’ll continue to face questions over his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, no matter how much he wants to move past it.

Also: WaPo: “Draft report of GOP-backed ballot review in Arizona confirms Biden’s win,” by Rosalind Helderman

MOMENTS

7:35 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will leave for New York, where she will appear on “The View.” She’ll return at 12:40 p.m.

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: Biden will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

11:30 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic women will speak about the president’s agenda.

12:30 p.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief.

2 p.m.: Biden will host the first Quad Leader Summit with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide and Modi.

2:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

4:10 p.m.: Biden will meet with Yoshihide. 

5:35 p.m.: Biden will leave for Camp David, where he’ll spend the weekend.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ News Analysis: “In Biden’s Foreign Policy, Friends and Foes Claim Echoes of Trump,” by Michael Crowley

→ “C.D.C. Chief Overrules Agency Panel and Recommends Pfizer-BioNTech Boosters for Workers at Risk,” by Apoorva Mandavilli and Benjamin Mueller

→ “Thousands of Haitians Allowed to Stay in U.S. as Texas Camp Clears Out,” by Edgar Sandoval, Simon Romero and Miriam Jordan in San Antonio

→ “As Debt Default Looms, Yellen Faces Her Biggest Test Yet,” by Alan Rappeport 

WaPo

→ “Congress is hurtling toward a debt showdown despite the public’s waning interest in the government’s red ink,” by Mike DeBonis

→ “Texas secretary of state’s office announces audit of 2020 election results after Trump calls for one,” by Amy B. Wang

→ “CIA station chief in Vienna recalled amid criticism of management and handling of mysterious ‘Havana Syndrome’ cases,” by John Hudson and Shane Harris

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