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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

At 5:30 p.m today, Congress will kick off an extraordinary week with only one thing certain — no one knows what’s going to happen.

The House and Senate are moving toward votes on legislation dealing with government funding, the debt limit, infrastructure, social programs and taxes worth trillions of dollars, although the details of some of these bills aren’t close to finalized yet. This would be a big agenda for an entire month. The House will try to tackle it in one week, while the Senate attempts to avoid a government shutdown. Democratic leaders in both chambers also still have to figure out how to avoid a catastrophic debt default in October.

It’s a huge moment for President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the biggest so far in the 117th Congress. It’s fair to say what happens in the next couple weeks will go a long way toward deciding whether Democrats have any shot of keeping the House or Senate next year. Failure on any of these issues would be a political disaster for the Democratic triumvirate and the party.

Pelosi hasn’t faced a legislative challenge quite this daunting since the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010 — nearly a dozen years ago. Schumer hasn’t ever been involved in a highwire act of this nature as Senate Democratic leader. Biden, of course, has never dealt with anything remotely like this in his eight months as president, although he did as a senator and vice president. 

Here’s where Congress is on each of these priorities:

→ Government funding and the debt limit: The Senate will vote on a cloture motion today to proceed to the House-passed short-term funding bill, which would keep federal agencies open until Dec. 3 while suspending the debt limit until Dec. 2022. It will fail since Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his GOP colleagues are opposed to any debt-limit increase. What happens following today’s failed vote is still unclear.

One scenario — the most likely — is that the Senate strips out the debt-limit provision and sends the bill back to the House with broad bipartisan support. The House passes the bill, Biden signs it, and a government shutdown is averted for two months. But the debt-limit problem remains unresolved, so Democrats don’t like it.

We’ve also heard Democrats may offer a two or three-week continuing resolution, which would essentially line up a government shutdown with a debt default. The idea here is to try to ratchet up the political pressure on Republicans to allow a debt-limit vote, even if they vote no.

But this approach is extremely risky and doesn’t make a lot of sense to us. There’s no way McConnell and Senate Republicans would agree to let this move forward, so there would still be the threat of a government shutdown at midnight on Thursday. And it doesn’t solve the debt-limit issue either, since McConnell isn’t going to budge there. Democrats can scream at McConnell about hypocrisy, and they have an argument, yet Dems still control the White House and Congress. So it will ultimately fall on them to solve this. 

On another note: We’ve heard from several sources that the Senate may attach Iron Dome funding to whatever CR it sends back to the House, but this is not set. Iron Dome money in the government funding bill would be complicated for House Democratic leadership.

→ Infrastructure: The big question here is whether Pelosi’s unremitting pressure campaign and blazing-fast timeline will convince progressives to support the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill this Thursday even though reconciliation isn’t done. There will be a tremendous push from Pelosi and the rest of the leadership to vote yes. Pelosi and Schumer are also working on something to offer progressives in reconciliation by the time of that vote. More on that below.

BTW: Don’t expect Democratic moderates to flip their lid that Pelosi is pushing the vote to Thursday. They feel fine about it — as long as the bill passes this week.

→ Reconciliation: We spoke to a bunch of lawmakers and aides involved in the House-Senate discussions on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. Pelosi, Schumer and their top aides, along with committee chairs and White House officials, are scrambling to come up with a “framework” to offer to progressives this week, prior to the bipartisan infrastructure vote in the House.

This is the key to the infrastructure vote strategy from leadership. If Pelosi can show progressives there is substantial momentum on the reconciliation package, even if it’s not complete yet, she can hold down “no” votes among progressives. Remember, she doesn’t have to get all of them. She has a three-vote margin among Democrats, and between five and 10 Republicans are expected to vote for the bill. So Pelosi has a little leeway here. Not much, but some. She will use Thursday’s expiration of transportation spending authority as a talking point to say that Congress needs to act — and the work on infrastructure will continue. 

What this “framework” looks like, and how much specificity it offers, is critical. There’s not a deal on a topline number yet. Pelosi made clear during her Sunday morning appearance on ABC’s “This Week” that the overall cost will be less than $3.5 trillion, calling that “self-evident.” But she didn’t say how much, or give an idea on what the tax provisions would look like, nor how the big policy fights among Democrats on Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare are going to be resolved.

Let’s also not underestimate the tremendous distrust that progressives have for moderates right now. Three moderates on the Energy and Commerce Committee already voted against the Medicare prescription drug bargaining plan put forth by the House, and Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) voted against the Ways and Means reconciliation markup. There’s clearly enough moderate opposition to sink the reconciliation package. Which means progressives feel like they must get some commitment from them before the infrastructure vote. This is the line Pelosi is trying to walk.

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THE PEOPLE

The Democrats to watch as legislating hits high gear

1) Joe Biden: The general consensus is that if the president wants the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill passed, he’s going to have to get personally involved — like really wade into this fight. Biden held meetings with a number of members and senators last week in a bid to find common ground on reconciliation. What’s a better use of his time: building a public case or working members behind the scenes? Biden and senior White House officials were able to seal a deal during the Senate infrastructure negotiations. Can they do it again now? 

2) Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin: Need we say more? The Arizona and West Virginia Democrats are the keys to everything going on in the Senate. Manchin gets more attention than Sinema, but sources over the weekend described Sinema as deep in the weeds of the reconciliation package. We’ve already reported how Sinema is in frequent contact with House moderates, trying to give them a sense of what is happening on her side of the Capitol. The frustration for the White House and Democratic leaders is the pair haven’t made their demands totally clear yet. We have to imagine that will happen this week. One thing we can say for sure: these two moderate Senate Democrats aren’t particularly swayed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s timetable. If the House passes a package that Manchin and Sinema find lacking, they’ll slow it down in the Senate and try to get what they want. 

3) Pramila Jayapal: The Washington State Democrat, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has been very outspoken on how there are dozens of progressives who will vote against the infrastructure bill unless the reconciliation package is approved by the Senate first. But Jayapal gave a slight opening during a CNN interview on Sunday, suggesting if there was an “ironclad” agreement between the House and Senate on the reconciliation package, that may be enough. The leadership was listening very closely to this.

4) Josh Gottheimer: There’s a lot on the line here for Gottheimer. He was the one that cut the deal with Pelosi setting up an infrastructure vote this week. He’s working hard on reconciliation, which contains his top legislative priority: some sort of remedy for the state and local tax caps. 

5) Stephanie Murphy: We put the Florida Democrat here as a placeholder of sorts for House Democratic moderates not named Gottheimer. Reps. Kurt Schrader (Ore.), Kathleen Rice (N.Y.), Scott Peters (Calif.) and Jared Golden (Maine) have all publicly raised concerns about all or part of the still-under-assembly reconciliation package. Pelosi can only lose three votes. So she will eventually have to turn some of these moderates if reconciliation is going to pass. But which ones?

6) Tom Suozzi: The New York Democrat has said for six months that he won’t vote for any reconciliation package that doesn’t restore the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) that Republicans eliminated in their 2017 tax cut. He’s led a group of like-minded blue state Dems on this, mostly Northeasterners. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is also on their side, which is a huge plus. But restoring the deduction is expensive, and progressives don’t like it because it benefits the wealthy. It wasn’t included in the Ways and Means reconciliation markup, although Rep. Richie Neal (D-Mass.), the panel’s chair, has promised to address it in the final package. We have heard that the final package will suspend the SALT caps for two years. That would be a good outcome. This is a make-or-break issue for Suozzi.

6) Chuy Garcia: Garcia, an Illinois Democrat, and Reps. Lou Correa (D-Calif.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), are demanding that the reconciliation package include a pathway to citizenship for millions of Dreamers, TPS holders, migrant farm workers and other undocumented immigrants or they’ll vote no. (Espaillat gave himself a bit of wiggle room.) This is going to be very difficult to achieve since the Senate parliamentarian has already rebuffed Democratic attempts to include these provisions inside the legislation. Leadership doesn’t fully believe that this trio would vote against reconciliation at the end of the day since they support the broader goals of the package, but as immigration has again moved to the top of the national political debate due to the continued crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border, their concerns will have to be addressed somehow.

7) Alma Adams: The Congressional Black Caucus says they expected more than $40 billion in HBCU funding, and this package only includes $2 billion. Adams, a North Carolina Democrat, has said she will vote against reconciliation unless more HBCU funding is included. We’ll have to see what that looks like, but she has backing from other influential Democrats like Rep. Joyce Beatty of Ohio, the CBC chair. 

8) The Democratic leadership: We’re so used to saying don’t doubt Nancy Pelosi — and we’re not doubting her. But this is a gigantic moment for her personally. She has an uncanny ability to stay calm and focused during these high-stakes moments — and she’ll need to muster all of that. Ever since 2010, much of her legislative wizardry has been on a more limited scale. Getting infrastructure and reconciliation would be an amazing feat. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will have to play the keeper of Sineamanchin — but that’s not all. How will he handle immigration provisions that Democrats want? Will he avoid a government shutdown? And how about the debt limit?

AD WARS

Outside groups pour millions into reconciliation ad campaigns

With the battle over the $3.5 reconciliation package consuming Capitol Hill, outside groups are stepping up the advocacy campaign to sway lawmakers, both for and against the package, or in support of their own policy goals. These groups are pouring millions of dollars into the effort, with the pace of the spending accelerating as the legislative debate hits a fever pitch. 

We’ll try to highlight these efforts as we track the reconciliation package, especially what impact these campaigns have on key lawmakers. 

Paid Leave for All is launching a $2 million cable ad campaign urging Congress to include paid family and medical leave in reconciliation. The ads will run in D.C., Arizona, West Virginia, Texas, Florida, New Jersey and Georgia. The effort is an extension of a 14-city bus tour across nine states and D.C. over August. Pivotal Ventures — Melinda French Gates’ organization — is supporting the campaign. Here’s one, and another is below. 

Meanwhile, a pro-business coalition that includes dozens of Washington trade associations is launching an $1 million TV and digital campaign to pressure some moderate Democrats to oppose the $3.5 reconciliation package.

American Job Creators For a Strong Recovery is targeting Reps. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) and urging them to vote no. Here’s the ad on Golden.

“There is a small group of House Democrats who hold the keys to blocking this misguided and harmful effort that will hammer family-owned businesses and communities across the country,” National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors CEO Eric Hoplin said in a statement. “We are calling on them to stand up to the far left in Washington and stand with the job creators back home in their congressional districts by opposing this massive $3.5 trillion tax-and-spend bill.”

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily intelligence briefing.

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

5:30 p.m.: The House Democratic Caucus will meet in the Capitol. … The Senate will vote to break a GOP filibuster on government funding and the debt limit. 

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “America’s Need to Pay Its Bills Has Spawned a Political Game,” by Jim Tankersley

 → “For Schumer and Pelosi, the Challenge of a Career With No Margin for Error,” by Jonathan Weisman

→ “Why Scores of Female Athletes Are Speaking Out on Abortion Rights,” by Kurt Streeter

 WaPo

→ “Democrats outside D.C. worry party will blow its chance of enacting historic agenda — a failure with grave political consequences,” by Sean Sullivan and Tyler Pager

→ “Supreme Court observers see trouble ahead as public approval of justices erodes,” by Robert Barnes and Seung Min Kim

WSJ

→ “Debt-Limit Standoff Could Force Fed to Revisit Emergency Playbook,” by Nick Timiraos

→ “Kyrsten Sinema Is Enigma at Center of Democrats’ Spending Talks,” by Eliza Collins and Kristina Peterson

AP

→ “US has enough COVID-19 vaccines for boosters, kids’ shots,” by Todd Richmond and Kathleen Foody in Madison, Wis.

→ “Biden plan seeks to expand education, from pre-K to college,” by Collin Binkley and Lisa Mascaro

→ “US officials: Biden aide to meet Saudi crown prince on Yemen,” by Aamer Madhani

Politico

→ “Facing a heap of defeat, progressives stake hopes on spending bill,” by Marianne Levine, Nicholas Wu and Sarah Ferris

Financial Times

→ “Scholz and Social Democrats win tight German election,” by Guy Chazan

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images