With just over a week until the June 2 primary, California House Democrats are growing increasingly confident they’ll have one or even two Democrats emerge in the runoff for the Golden State governorship.
For months, a crowded Democratic field and two viable Republicans meant it was possible that no Democrats would advance to the general election in this blue-state stronghold. House races across California are key to who controls the chamber next year, especially after Democrats there redrew the congressional map to add up to five new blue seats.
But the combination of President Donald Trump endorsing Steve Hilton, along with former Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) and Tom Steyer pulling away from the field, has eased Democratic fears.
California Democrats on Capitol Hill told us they see Becerra as most likely to advance to the general, with Steyer as the second most likely Democrat.
Things weren’t always going this smoothly. For a period in early spring, the sprawling Democratic field meant there was an outside chance that Hilton and GOP candidate Chad Bianco would be the two general-election candidates.
Crowded house. Part of the problem was that California’s Hill delegation never solidified around a single candidate. Many Democrats wanted Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) to jump in. That never happened.
A number of members, including Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), had started to coalesce around former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) in the opening months of 2026. That fell apart when Swalwell dropped out amid a sexual assault scandal.
Steyer rose in the polls after pouring nearly $200 million of his own money into the race. Becerra also surged after Swalwell’s exit.
Other Democrats endorsed former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), while a handful are behind San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
But even supporters of the lower-polling Porter and Mahan admitted their candidates didn’t have a chance.
“It seems like, if you believe the polling, that Becerra is pulling away a little bit,” said Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.), who has endorsed Porter. “It might end up being him and Hilton; might end up being him and Steyer. I thought Katie would get more momentum after the Swalwell stuff, but that didn’t happen.”
Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), who endorsed Mahan, predicted that Becerra and Hilton will advance to the general election.
“It seems like Xavier is in a pretty strong position and Steyer’s a little bit behind him,” Bera said. “Matt just didn’t quite break through. He probably got into the race too late.”
Some Mahan supporters, like Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.), blamed Democratic fears of a general election lockout for Mahan’s failure to launch.
“They were excessively utilized by some party insiders who wanted to favor frontrunners,” Liccardo said. “It’s remarkable how we’ve seen the numbers of everyone who is not a frontrunner drop dramatically in the polls in a matter of just a few days. It seems hardly coincidental.”
The frontrunners’ takes: Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), an early Becerra endorser, predicted Becerra would win the governor’s race.
“All polling is showing that they want somebody who has the experience and qualifications and has done it to lead California,” Carbajal declared.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who’s backing Steyer, said “it’s neck and neck” between Steyer and Becerra.
“In my district, there’s a lot of support for Steyer. But Becerra has a lot of support down in Southern California,” Khanna said.
“I’ve known both Tom and Xavier a long time. We’d be well served with either,” Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) said.
