News: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in a new poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership backed super PAC.
SLF is supporting Cornyn. Their poll has Cornyn trailing Paxton 56-40, according to two people briefed on the survey.
In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a run, Cornyn is down 10. Paxton pulled 44% to Cornyn’s 34%. Hunt got 19% in the three-way race.
The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is mulling another Senate run. Cornyn led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point.
Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans — that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election.
Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002. Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It’s not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.
Cornyn’s campaign said the veteran GOP senator believes he will win next year’s Republican primary no matter what early polls show.
“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as president and continues to be his close legislative ally,” Cornyn’s senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said.
“In ten months when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win,” Mackowiak added.
Here’ SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson with some pro-Cornyn spin:
“The numbers don’t lie – John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton. Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets, and it’s clear he would risk delivering the Senate majority to Chuck Schumer.”
It’s also worth noting that President Donald Trump’s job approval in the poll was right-side up by 2 points, according to the people briefed on the results. That suggests the sample was more moderate. Trump won the state by 14 points last November.
