Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) is at serious risk of losing his primary.
House GOP leaders are growing increasingly concerned about Crenshaw’s fate next Tuesday as he faces a strong challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth.
A pro-Crenshaw super PAC has spent more than $1 million bashing Toth on TV. That’s a clear sign that the incumbent’s allies see the challenger as a serious threat, even though Toth has spent very little money himself.
The race extends to a May runoff if no candidate clears 50% next week.
“I’ve heard [Crenshaw has] got a tough race,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us this week. “I mean, I supported him, hopefully he pulls it out on Tuesday.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) upended the contest by endorsing Toth this week, and Cruz immediately cut an ad for a pro-Toth super PAC. The House Freedom Caucus’ political arm got behind Toth as well.
“He was completely underwater before the race even started,” Toth told us of Crenshaw’s favorability rating. “There’s no way Ted Cruz would jump in. There’s no way the Freedom Caucus would jump in. There’s no way that these different players would get involved in this thing, if the numbers weren’t incredibly good.”
We’re not sure about that. The Freedom Caucus has endorsed failed candidates in the past. But Cruz’s nod is significant.
“Steve Toth is the best candidate for that seat,” Cruz told us on Thursday. “He’s a strong conservative, and I think his principles and values reflect the values of the voters of the district.”
Cruz had already been planning to endorse against Crenshaw. But the divide between the Texas Republicans grew worse recently when Crenshaw voted against the ROTOR Act, Cruz’s aviation safety bill. Cruz announced his support for Toth just hours after the failed ROTOR vote in the House.
Redistricting put Crenshaw in some unfamiliar territory and drew Toth’s home into the district. But the fact that Toth poses a serious threat is remarkable.
Consider this disparity: Toth spent $175,000 from Jan. 1 through mid-February. Crenshaw spent $616,000 in the same period. Toth’s super PAC has spent $362,000 on ads. While the pro-Crenshaw group dropped $2 million.
The very competitive Lone Star State. There are a bunch of intense primary races in Texas on Tuesday.
There are two marquee Senate contests: the three-way GOP race between Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. On the Democratic side, it’s Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico.
All three GOP candidates are scheduled to join President Donald Trump at an event today in Corpus Christi, but the president has stayed out of the race. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been pushing Trump for several months to get behind Cornyn, but the president has resisted.
“Almost every time we talk, we talk Texas,” Thune said of Trump.
For his part, Cornyn said he spoke with Trump on Tuesday and that he doesn’t expect any news from the president before Tuesday’s primary.
Meanwhile, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), a 21-year incumbent, faces a tough challenge from newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas). Brandon Herrera is primarying scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas).
And Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) is facing a challenge from the man she replaced in Congress: former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).
