FORT WORTH, Texas — Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) may have waited until the last possible day to enter the Texas Senate race. But she’s still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
The big question now: Can state Rep. James Talarico overtake Crockett with less than two weeks to go until the March 3 primary?
It’s not over yet. Talarico, who entered the race in September, does have one key advantage — money. Talarico has significantly more resources than Crockett, and he’s outspent the congresswoman on advertising, $11.2 million to $2.7 million. Plus, a pro-Talarico super PAC has already dropped $5 million into the race.
But Crockett has something that might be more valuable in a state as massive as Texas — a national following and extremely high name recognition.
“We’re the underdogs against Congresswoman Crockett,” Talarico said while campaigning this week in Austin. “I’m the most unknown candidate in the race, probably in either party, so it’s incumbent upon me to introduce myself to voters.”
Talarico did get a big publicity boost this week after late-night TV host Stephen Colbert accused CBS of blocking him from airing a Talarico interview out of fear of the FCC.
Yet Crockett’s penchant for sparring with Republicans from her perch on the House Oversight Committee has made for several viral moments. One clash she had with former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was immortalized in a Saturday Night Live skit.
It’s that kind of exposure that gives the two-term House member such a huge edge in the primary. Crockett told reporters her most recent polling showed her with a close to 10-point lead over Talarico.
“When there’s a spread like that, and we’re in a shorter amount of time, then it’s not a matter of you just catching up. You’ve got to bring me down,” Crockett declared.
On the ground. Both Democrats are barnstorming the state for the start of early voting and drawing huge crowds.
Talarico filled a large event center for a rally Tuesday evening in Austin, complete with a band that opened for him and a merch stand outside. Talarico’s campaign said more than 1,000 people attended.
Crockett drew roughly 700 people, her campaign said, at an event at a church in Fort Worth Thursday morning.
Both candidates are making starkly different arguments for how to finally flip a Texas Senate seat blue.
Crockett’s pitch is that Democrats need to prioritize turning out low propensity voters rather than persuading conservative ones. Here’s what Crockett said when asked if she needed moderates and Republicans to win statewide:
“If the numbers continue to trend the way that they’re trending, the answer is no. All we’ve ever needed to do was increase voter participation and voter turnout on our side.”
Talarico, a seminarian who has drawn praise as a rare Democrat able to speak convincingly about religion, often touts his ability to win over Republican voters. In 2018, Talarico flipped a red state House district.
While Crockett has made her opposition to President Donald Trump a centerpiece of her messaging, Talarico notably hasn’t featured Trump in his advertising.
Talarico has far more resources to make his case. Talarico outraised Crockett by $5.5 million from Jan. 1 to mid-February. He brought in another $2.5 million in the 24 hours after his Colbert interview was pulled.
Asked why voters should back him over Crockett, Talarico noted that Crockett hasn’t shown she can run a competitive general election.
The super PAC backing Talarico went negative on Crockett this month with a form of that argument. The ad warned that Republicans recruited Crockett into the race because they believe she will be easier to beat.
The Senate Democratic establishment is officially remaining neutral. But privately, many in the party have similar electability concerns about Crockett. And the stakes are high. Republicans could very well nominate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose ethical scandals may give Democrats an opening.
Getting messy. The race has become increasingly contentious in the closing days.
Crockett said this week that the idea that she wasn’t electable statewide was a “dog whistle” that was “tearing down a Black woman.” Crockett said the pro-Talarico super PAC attack ad had darkened her skin tone and was “straight up racist.”
Asked about those statements, Talarico declined to condemn the ad, noting he cannot coordinate with a super PAC. Talarico urged reporters to “fact check” that claim.
“You can look at images and put them back to back and that’s your judgment call. I would like to see if that’s true before I comment,” Talarico said.
Crockett countered that Talarico’s response was “frustrating.”
“I wouldn’t imagine that he necessarily knows my exact skin tone. He knows it enough for sure,” Crockett said. “As a Black woman and a civil rights lawyer, I stand up, I speak out on behalf of everyone.”
And remember, this incident is coming just weeks after a Texas political content creator accused Talarico of calling former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) “a mediocre Black man.” Talarico said he called Allred a mediocre campaigner but that he would “never attack him on the basis of race.”
Black voters are going to be a hugely important political bloc in this primary and a huge asset for Crockett. Early voting in Crockett’s home base in Dallas County appeared to be surging in Black communities, per early analyses.
