Democrats did something a little unexpected in their proposed remap of California — they created several competitive districts, if you go by the 2024 presidential election results.
There are many ways to assess how “swingy” a district might be in any given year, such as voter registration and past election results. But for the upcoming midterms, the 2024 presidential race gives the most recent snapshot of where voters stand. The smaller the margin of the presidential race in a district, the more potential it has to be competitive in the 2026 midterms.
California Democrats’ new redistricting plan features seven districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried by single digits in 2024, including three she carried by fewer than five points. Those districts are held by: Republican Rep. Darrell Issa (Harris +3) and Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (Harris +1), Derek Tran (Harris +4), Raul Ruiz (Harris +6), Jim Costa (Harris +6), Norma Torres (Harris +8) and Ami Bera (Harris +9).
There is one district, held by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), that Trump won by single digits — in this case by just two points.
Many of those members represent districts with a high population of Latino voters who surged to the right at the presidential level in 2024. This includes the districts held by Gray, Ruiz, Costa and Valadao.
Democrats believe they’re favored to hold or flip these seats because the party that holds the White House traditionally suffers in a midterm election. And President Donald Trump’s numbers have fallen in some recent polling, especially on the economy.
“If you look at where he’s losing support, Trump’s support is completely collapsing among younger men,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data expert who drew the California map. “And if Republicans are counting on 2024 general numbers in those districts, they’re really screwing themselves because those numbers are an artificial high.”
Texas Hold’em. Of course, Latino voters in Texas are not the same as Latino voters in California.
Texas Republicans made the opposite bet. Trump carried all of their newly drawn red districts by 10 points or more. The new map has more majority-Hispanic seats than the current one and GOP strategists believe they will only become more red.
Yet from Democrats’ perspective, a Texas seat Trump won by 10 points could be competitive. And a seat Harris won by one point, such as Gray’s, isn’t as purple as it looks.
California Democrats are constrained by the fact that they have to submit their maps to the voters for approval. That limits the number of cities they can split and places a premium on the compactness of districts. Voters are less likely to approve something that divides communities.
Texas Republicans didn’t have these limitations.
The GOP argument is that Latinos have been trending right for longer than just the 2024 cycle, and they expect that pattern to continue. Republicans also drew districts won not only by Trump but also by GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz in their reelection campaigns.
