Florida Republicans are spooked.
A Democrat just flipped a Palm Beach County state house district that President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024. That upset only compounded growing fears that Trump voters — especially Latinos — are turning on Republicans.
Amid all this uncertainty, Florida’s GOP-controlled legislature is getting ready to push through a revised congressional map next month to create anywhere from two to five new red seats.
But now, Republicans in the congressional delegation are beginning to publicly warn lawmakers in Tallahassee that an over-aggressive remap could backfire.
“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” said Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), a former state house speaker. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
The 2026 strategy. Florida has increasingly become a central piece of Republicans’ redistricting strategy. As Democrats strike back with new maps in California and Virginia, Florida is Trump’s last chance to tilt the House battleground in his favor.
But this plan relies on Latino voters sticking with the GOP like they did in 2024, a banner year for the GOP in Florida. That’s far from certain, and some Florida Republicans are warning that such a move is perilous.
“You could potentially do two [new GOP seats,]” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said. “I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”
The special elections in Florida this week brought fresh worries. The state house seat that Democrats flipped is especially satisfying because it includes Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, a Democrat is on the verge of flipping a state senate district that Trump won by seven points.
Democrats’ response. Democrats say Tuesday’s elections have shaken up their midterm strategy and that they’ll go on offense in Florida regardless of any GOP remap.
Here’s what House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us.
“In our view, there probably are at least a half a dozen Florida Republicans, based on the results yesterday, who are vulnerable, and we’re taking a close look at going into their districts aggressively.”
At a minimum, Jeffries said, Democrats can target the three South Florida Republicans — Diaz-Balart and Reps. Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar — and GOP Rep. Brian Mast, who represents the Treasure Coast.
If Republicans redraw, Jeffries said they could create even more opportunities for Democrats.
Florida saw a big lurch to the right at the presidential level in 2024, leaving Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Darren Soto looking more vulnerable. All are targets in redistricting and represent significant populations of Latino voters.
“They need to be really careful,” Gimenez said of the legislature’s remap. Lawmakers should study the special election results, he said. “They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”
Gimenez also said he’s warned the Trump administration: “We have lost ground with Hispanics due to what happened with immigration.”
