Republicans are leaning into a simple strategy to win over the crucial bloc of Latino voters: recruit them as candidates.
In the years since the 2016 cycle, many heavily Latino House districts swung from overwhelmingly backing Hillary Clinton to strongly favoring President Donald Trump.
Now, GOP leaders are making a concerted effort to field Latino candidates in these districts to help turn these pro-Trump voters into loyal Republicans. Some of these seats, such as New Jersey’s 9th District, represented by Rep. Nellie Pou (D), and California’s 25th District, represented by Rep. Raul Ruiz (D), haven’t been seriously contested in recent years but are now freshly competitive.
Democrats unused to intense campaigns are now in potential swing districts, thanks to this major Latino voter political realignment.
Here’s a look at the emerging battlegrounds:
The newly competitive seats:
New Jersey’s 9th District: Pou’s seat shifted 20 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +1 district. Clifton City Councilmember Rosie Pino is running for this northern New Jersey seat that no one thought was in play last year.
California’s 25th District: Ruiz’s seat shifted 12 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a district Kamala Harris won by just three points. Republicans are excited about Joe Males, a Hemet city councilmember, who outraised Ruiz last quarter.
California’s 21st District: Rep. Jim Costa’s (D) district moved 16 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Harris +4 district. Republicans are coalescing behind Lorenzo Rios, a U.S. Marine and Army veteran, in this seat.
Previously competitive seats that have seen big shifts:
California’s 9th District: Rep. Josh Harder’s (D) seat shifted 15 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +2 seat. Republicans are again fielding former Stockton, Calif., Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who lost to Harder last cycle. Lincoln’s mother is of Mexican descent.
California’s 13th District: Rep. Adam Gray’s (D) seat shifted 16 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +5 district. Ceres, Calif., Mayor Javier Lopez is running.
Texas’ 28th District: Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D) district shifted 14 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +7 district. The GOP may end up with a primary here but Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican, is one to watch.
Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D). This seat shifted 20 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +4 district. Eric Flores, an Army vet, is planning to run here.
Both of those Texas seats are very likely to shift even further to the right thanks to the GOP’s redistricting push. Trump and House GOP leaders are hoping to pick as many as five seats in the states.
“Republicans are the party of common sense, and Hispanic voters know it,” Christian Martinez, the NRCC’s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement.
The Democratic response: Democrats insist that their incumbents are well positioned to win reelection given that their members all won even when they were on the same ticket as Trump in 2024. And Trump isn’t on the ticket next year.
“These Hispanic Democrat incumbents performed well in ’24 because they’re rooted in their communities and delivering results,” Valeria Ojeda-Avitia, the communications director for the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said in a statement.
Democrats also point to recent polling that shows Latino voters growing increasingly dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy.
