Texas’ already messy Senate Republican primary could soon be a three-way contest.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is inching closer to launching a bid after months of trying to boost his profile with statewide ads, according to sources familiar with his plans. Hunt would join Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the March GOP primary.
A pro-Hunt group has new polling that shows Hunt five points behind Cornyn in a three-way ballot. Hunt is up by one point in a head-to-head with Paxton, according to this survey.
Of course, this is an internal poll by an outside group supporting Hunt. But it’s notable because Hunt is certainly considering this data as he decides whether to enter the race.
And these numbers bolster Hunt allies’ theory of the case: Hunt is closing in on second-place in the three-way match up. They believe he can overtake Cornyn by next March with more spending.
Doing so would set up a runoff between Hunt and Paxton, and Hunt’s polling indicates he could beat Paxton in a two-way race. Hunt’s timeline for getting into the race is unclear but Texas’ December filing deadline is fast approaching.
The numbers. In their internal poll of the three-way race, Paxton led with 38%, followed by Cornyn with 28% and Hunt with 23%. The survey of 842 GOP primary voters was conducted Sept. 14-16 by Stratus Intelligence.
In a head-to-head, Hunt led Paxton, 39% to 38%. In a Cornyn-Hunt matchup, Hunt led 46% to 37%.
Hunt’s supporters see the two-term House member and former Army officer as the solution to a thorny problem for the GOP. Senate Republicans are in the middle of a multi-million dollar rescue mission to boost Cornyn’s polling numbers. Cornyn is trailing Paxton in most polls but has closed the gap some in recent weeks.
The stakes are high. Many Republicans fear Cornyn can’t win a primary and that Paxton, who’s in the middle of a messy divorce and saddled with ethics issues, would put the seat in play for Democrats in a general election.
Two outside groups have spent some $18 million boosting Cornyn’s numbers, per AdImpact. Hunt and his allied group, Standing For Texas, have spent close to $6 million.
A brewing battle. The NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have publicly opposed Hunt’s flirtation with the race.
The Senate GOP campaign arm released a memo this month slamming Hunt’s statewide spending as a “vanity project.” The memo urged donors to stop giving to Hunt and listed recent polling showing that Cornyn has narrowed the gap with Paxton to single digits.
The White House remains a major question. President Donald Trump has not endorsed either candidate and seems content to let the race play out.
Cornyn has said he will not bow out of the race.
