SIOUX CITY, Iowa — Iowa Democrats are dreaming big in 2026, aiming to flip the governor’s mansion, a Senate seat and three House districts.
It’s a very tall task given that President Donald Trump carried the Hawkeye State by 13 points in 2024, while Republicans swept all four House seats. Iowa has been getting consistently redder for a generation now.
But Democrats insist their ambitious plans this year are possible thanks to a massive voter backlash against Trump’s policies. A cost-of-living crisis is wreaking havoc on Iowa’s rural counties and agricultural economy. Democrats believe that gives them a huge opening.
Winning in Iowa could be key to Democrats flipping control of the House, and in a blue wave environment, maybe even winning back the Senate.
“We’re a common-sense state that’s masqueraded as a red state. The margins are small,” Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, who’s running for Senate, said at a Sioux City event on Thursday. “The amazing opportunity that we have here in Iowa is if we can duplicate what we did in Trump’s first midterm, we can flip Congress.”
Pro-Democratic outside groups are taking note and planning to pour tens of millions of dollars into the state’s congressional races.
“Folks are seeing Trump policies decimate their financial realities here in this state,” Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James, who’s trying to win Iowa’s open 2nd District, told us. “It’s not just gas or groceries. It’s the fact that folks are watching the premium rates in their healthcare go up.”
James, the favorite in the Democratic primary, is seeking to win a northwest Iowa district that backed Trump by 11 points in 2024.
Iowa’s toss-up 1st and 3rd Districts — represented by vulnerable GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — understandably are receiving the bulk of the attention. But if James’ likely matchup against Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Mitchell becomes competitive, it would signal that Democrats will win big in the midterms.
Democratic decline. Iowa Democrats are at an electoral low point. While party loyalists are quick to point out that Democrats won three House seats during the last Trump midterm in 2018, there are no Democrats in the Iowa congressional delegation right now. The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Iowa was 2008. The last time a Democrat won a governor’s race was in 2006.
Iowa is home to numerous counties that backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before swinging hard to Trump in 2016 and beyond.
Democrats argue the party’s lost voters aren’t Republicans as much as people fed up with the political system. As a result, Democrats want to capitalize on economic angst by embracing an anti-establishment message.
“A lot of it is not really left-right ideological. It’s really a question of who do you work for?” said state Sen. Zach Wahls, who’s running for Senate. “Trump represents this anti-establishment spirit that has a lot of pull in Iowa.”
Wahls is locked in a primary with Turek to face Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) in November. We’ll have much more on this race on Monday morning.
“I hardly ever use the words Democrat or Republican when I’m out talking to people. People really are so sick of the extremes and the party politics,” added Democrat Christina Bohannan, who’s running against Miller-Meeks.
Bohannan, who outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024, says she’s seeing Republicans and independents flock to her campaign this cycle.
“Farmers are speaking out, hospital CEOs, small business owners. People who usually would stay out of politics or kind of keep quiet about it are speaking out more publicly,” Bohannan said.
The Sand effect. Members of both parties readily admit that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is a real contender to win in November. The state auditor has cultivated a centrist brand and is benefiting from a fractious GOP primary where Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) is the favorite. But Feenstra hasn’t pulled ahead, and the GOP primary may lead to a convention if no candidate clears 35%.
State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, who’s looking to knock off Nunn in the 3rd District, told us enthusiasm for Sand and other statewide Democrats will boost her.
“I ran in ‘20, I ran in ‘22 and I ran in ‘24. This feels different,” Garriott told us at an event in Adel, Iowa. “It’s really great to be running with really strong candidates on the ballot, because a lot of years it felt like I was on my own.”
GOP response. Republicans are attacking their Democratic opponents as too left-wing and at odds with Iowa’s common-sense values. At every turn, GOP candidates remind voters about the struggles of the Biden years.
“Iowans have a pretty good memory, being the first in the nation state. We have the unfortunate scars from Biden driving our country to the brink,” Hinson told us. “I hear every day from folks who don’t want to return to that.”
