PHOENIX — President Donald Trump won Arizona by more than five points in November.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) says there’s no chance Trump would come out on top if the election were held today.
“I don’t think [Arizonans] voted for Medicaid being drastically cut,” Kelly said in an interview here after hosting events focused on Medicaid and tariffs. “Over the next decade, we will see 250-300,000 people lose their Medicaid coverage.”
It’s no secret Democrats see a path to electoral success in 2026 by highlighting Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” especially in Arizona, where House Republicans are vulnerable.
Kelly is positioning himself as a top messenger for his party, not only through his role as a DSCC vice chair but through efforts to topple GOP lawmakers in the Grand Canyon State.
“They voted for a big tax cut for billionaires at the expense of people who are poor and need help with health care coverage and food assistance,” Kelly said.
Kelly, who was under consideration to be former Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate last year, isn’t up for reelection until 2028. In the meantime, Kelly is taking steps to increase his national profile. Inevitably, this has stoked speculation about White House ambitions, but the former astronaut says that’s not his focus.
‘A big rock up a steep hill’: While the Medicaid portions of the bill are unpopular, Senate Republicans crafted the language such that the brunt of the cuts won’t be felt until after the 2026 elections. Meanwhile, popular provisions like “no tax on tips” will be implemented much sooner. That makes the messaging war harder for Democrats.
Kelly acknowledged the delayed implementation at a Medicaid roundtable here with local officials. And in a break from some Democrats who want scorched-earth opposition to everything Trump does, Kelly gave the president credit for the dramatic reduction in illegal southern border crossings — though with a caveat.
“The border is more secure today than it was. Give him a ton of credit for that,” Kelly said of Trump. “What we did not vote for — I don’t think the American people wanted — is a president who is ripping communities apart.”
Kelly is level-headed about Democrats’ low chances of taking back the Senate, but he sees a path if Democrats can successfully message the cuts to Medicaid and other assistance programs.
“I like to live in the real world,” Kelly quipped. “We are pushing a big rock up a steep hill… [But] we could actually win the Senate back.”
Senate summer: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pushed Democratic senators to focus on Medicaid cuts as they criss-cross their states in August.
Kelly has been holding town halls in three Republican districts outside Phoenix. Two of those GOP House members — Reps. Juan Ciscomani and David Schweikert — are seen as especially vulnerable in 2026. Kelly on Thursday endorsed JoAnna Mendoza in the Democratic primary to take on Ciscomani. (We’ll have more on those races on Monday.)
News: As he gets more active on the national political scene, Kelly is bringing two veteran Democratic strategists into his operation.
Mairead Cahill will be Kelly’s national political director. Cahill is a veteran of Democratic presidential and Senate campaigns. Kelly is also bringing back Taylor Hawkins as national finance director.
