California finally has a new congressional map. Now, the musical chairs begin as candidates jump in and incumbents rush to launch in new districts.
This redistricting gives Democrats the chance to pick up five seats. Three of those seats will be fairly easy flips. Two will be harder. Two Democratic incumbents will remain in battleground seats, while two others were drawn into safer seats.
And there will be a massive open-seat primary to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco.
Here’s everything we know so far about the new map:
The pick-ups: California’s 1st District, held by GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa, is now deep blue. Look for state Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire to run here. Audrey Denney, who ran in 2020, is already in.
— Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) announced he would run in California’s new 3rd District, currently held by GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley. This is the second potential flip option for Democrats. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won it by 10 points. Kiley hasn’t said where he’ll run.
“It’s entirely possible Kevin decides to run against me,” Bera said. “I feel pretty confident, having run some of the hardest races in the country.”
— California’s 41st District, currently held by GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, is now in Los Angeles County. Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) is expected to run here. Hilda Solis, a former member and Labor secretary, is planning to run to replace Sanchez in the 38th District. Calvert is running in the 40th District against Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.).
— GOP Rep. Darrell Issa saw his 48th District turn from deep red to light blue. Harris won it by three points. 2020 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar and San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert are among the Democrats running here.
— Rep. David Valadao’s 22nd District got a little better for Democrats – but not by that much. It changed from a seat President Donald Trump won by six points to one he won by two points.
The new safe seats. Democratic Reps. Josh Harder and Dave Min traded swingy seats for blue ones. Former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln dropped his bid against Harder and jumped to challenge Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in a neighboring seat.
The remaining swing seats. Gray’s Central Valley seat remains competitive — Harris would have won it by less than one point. Democratic Rep. Derek Tran’s Orange County-based district is also purple. Harris would have won it by four points.
Bera’s jump to the 3rd District leaves the Sacramento-area 6th District open. Harris would have won it by nine points. Names to watch there: former state Sen. Richard Pan, Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho and state Sen. Angelique Ashby.
Republicans may also try to target Democratic Rep. Jim Costa. His Central Valley seat moved to the right at the presidential level in 2024. It got a little better in the redraw but could potentially remain competitive.
