How aggressive will Ohio Republicans get when drawing new lines for the state’s 15 congressional districts ahead of the midterms?
As the White House and GOP leaders seek any avenue to protect their slender House majority, a debate is raging over just how many Democratic incumbents to target in the Buckeye State.
The current GOP-drawn map has 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Ohio’s unusual redistricting laws mandate a redraw ahead of 2026 because the current map passed without bipartisan support.
In the 2022 cycle, the Ohio Supreme Court reined in the GOP legislature. Now Republicans control all but one seat on Ohio’s top court and the question is whether they’ll try to draw a map that could elect 12 or 13 Republicans.
The danger zone. The two Democrats on the chopping block are Reps. Marcy Kaptur in northwest Ohio’s 9th District and Emilia Sykes in the Akron-based 13th District.
Kaptur’s seat is already quite red, although she keeps winning it even as President Donald Trump does, too. Republicans’ biggest problem here is recruitment. There’s some chatter that Ohio Senate President Rob McColley could be interested in a bid, especially if his home in Henry County is added to the 9th District.
“It is no surprise national and state Republicans in Columbus are scheming to confuse and handpick voters by gerrymandering Ohio congressional districts again,” David Zavac, Kaptur’s political director, said in a statement.
Justin Barasky, a Sykes spokesperson, said in a statement “it’s no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game.”
Sykes’ current district is competitive. To make the seat redder, Republicans would need to crack Akron’s Summit County and shift some of it to a neighboring district without endangering GOP Reps. Max Miller and Dave Joyce. This is doable and would create a map likely to elect 12 Republicans.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told us he believes “we probably end up” with that 12-3 configuration and that it “reflects the state.”
“There’s a recognition that Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, heavily Democrat cities, will probably be represented by Democrats,” Moreno said.
But some Republicans want to go farther, adopting a more heavy handed approach that endangers Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Cincinnati. This is a heavier lift but if successful could give Republicans 13 of the 15 seats.
Mapmakers will have to find a sweet spot that doesn’t endanger GOP Reps. Mike Turner or Mike Carey to the north of Landsman’s seat. Neither are in districts that are ruby red and the DCCC lists both as targets.
Timeline: Ohio Republicans will start these deliberations over the summer. They must deal with arcane rules about how many times a county can be split and in what fashion.
The legislature and the Ohio Redistricting Commission will likely kick the process back and forth to see if either can pass a map with enough bipartisan support. If this fails, then the legislature can pass a map with a simple majority, but must follow requirements about compactness.
In light of the White House push to force a new Texas map, it’s safe to imagine Trump’s team also wants Ohio Republicans to be aggressive. But just like in Texas, Republicans need to be careful not to spread their voters too thin and endanger incumbents.
