The nationwide push to redraw congressional maps is running into a troubling dynamic: strong-willed state legislatures.
President Donald Trump started an arms race to reshape the entire House landscape before the midterms, and Democrats are scrambling to keep pace. But the power of the redistricting pen lies with state lawmakers, who have their own parochial interests and power structures.
That dynamic was on full display this week as Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, a Republican, declared that there was insufficient support for redistricting in his GOP caucus. Shortly after that, a Black Illinois Senate leader cast doubt on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ push to get a new map in that state.
This issue is especially acute for Democrats, who are also facing resistance in the Maryland General Assembly
Let’s walk through the high-profile fights:
Illinois. The Illinois Black Senate Caucus issued a public warning to Jeffries and other Democrats advocating for redistricting.
The group won’t back any new map that dilutes the Black vote in any historically Black district. The message was delivered by state Sen. Willie Preston (D), the group’s chair, following a meeting on Wednesday.
That session included Black Illinois lawmakers and members of the congressional delegation, as well as Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) and Danny Davis (D-Ill.), Preston said.
“We want to make certain that we support Leader Jeffries and his efforts to try to push back and repel Donald Trump from stealing the election,” Preston said. “However, we cannot concede any dilution of the Black community and Black political power.”
Districts held by Jackson, Davis and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) are historically Black seats. They are between 43% and 50% Black.
Two of the seats are open. Davis is retiring while Kelly is running for Senate. Preston is running to succeed Kelly.
The clock is against Democrats here. Illinois’ filing deadline is Nov. 3, and candidates are already circulating petitions to make the ballot.
Indiana. Bray’s announcement, via a spokesperson, that there was significant resistance to redistricting started a firestorm.
It triggered quick blowback from Trump World and threats to ratchet up the political pressure on those seen as thwarting Trump’s goals. The question now is just how painful this will get.
The challenge for Trump allies is that only some of Indiana’s Republican state senators are up for reelection next year. Bray, for one, isn’t up until 2028.
But the pressure could still get intense. The White House has leaned heavily on Indiana to redistrict. Trump has a lot of money to spend running TV ads in Indiana and his political operation could easily recruit challengers for those who are up.
The next move will likely come from Republican Gov. Mike Braun. He’s still expected to call a special session for November to pass a new congressional map, essentially daring Bray and others to oppose it.
Maryland. Democrats are still optimistic that their legislature will redraw its congressional map to boot Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s lone Republican versus seven Democrats.
Democratic Gov. Wes Moore also said Maryland will look at redrawing its map if other states do so.
But progress has been slow. The Maryland Senate remains an obstacle. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, remains skeptical of redistricting, according to multiple sources close to the process.
The delegation has met to discuss the proposal. Several key members, including Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), have signaled their support.
“I am making myself clear to all of my Democratic colleagues that this is ethically, morally and politically indicated by the struggle to defend democracy in America,” Raskin said in an interview with us on Wednesday night.
