Today is the last day of Congress’ winter break. So please enjoy it while you still can.
It’s been more than two weeks since the House and Senate have been in session. Your holiday fog has probably — hopefully — lifted by now, so we want to refocus your attention on Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the two key GOP figures heading into the midterms. With 43 weeks until Election Day, Johnson and Thune are facing a daunting legislative and political climate.
Government funding. A partial government shutdown is just 28 days away if Congress can’t come together on an FY2026 funding deal.
Thune is struggling mightily to pass a five-bill minibus through the Senate, made more complicated by President Donald Trump’s apparent war on Colorado.
Meanwhile, Johnson needs to contend with conservatives who will inevitably be unhappy with the emerging topline funding levels from House and Senate appropriators. These will be closer to the Senate’s numbers than the House GOP’s party-line bills.
In our conversations over the past week or so, much of the intense internal GOP anger with Johnson seems to have subsided — for now. Members really needed a break at the end of December. But Johnson — a “Louisianan of the Year” finalist — needs to tread carefully. Yes, his job is hard. We’ll also note that House Republicans are rarely rational political actors.
House Republican leaders seem to think that they’ll be able to put some FY2026 spending bills on the floor next week. We remain skeptical on this. But if GOP leaders are able to get that done, it would show forward progress — something that rank-and-file members have demanded.
Retirements, primaries and more. When the House returns next week, the GOP’s already razor-thin majority will immediately shrink. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is leaving Congress Jan. 5. Johnson’s majority will then be 219-213, a two-vote cushion (Remember that tie House votes fail.)
The House GOP leadership is watching carefully to see if Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Cory Mills (R-Fla.) or Don Bacon (R-Neb.) leave before their terms are up. Stefanik and Bacon are retiring, while Mills has had a lengthy list of ethics and legal issues.
Retirements are less of an issue in the Senate, though Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ (R-Wyo.) announcement was a surprise.
The more acute concern for Thune — and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, for that matter — are the divisive primaries brewing in various states.
In Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn is locked in a three-way March primary that’s likely headed to a runoff. A Thune-aligned super PAC has spent tens of millions of dollars to prop up Cornyn.
Republicans also have no idea who will emerge from the crowded Georgia primary to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says this year could “again reshape Georgia’s political identity.”
The Trump campaign machine is humming. MAGA Inc., a Trump super PAC, raised more than $102 million in the last five months.
Trump management. One of the most challenging aspects of Johnson and Thune’s job is managing up — meaning making sure Trump is acting within some bounds of normalcy. They don’t have much control over this, of course.
But a looming Supreme Court decision on Trump’s authority to impose tariffs could give the leaders a bit more control than they’d like. A ruling against Trump would force the GOP-run Congress to take a series of uncomfortable votes on what has been a key tenet of Trump’s economic policies.
Democrats have been using Trump’s tariff regime to hammer their message on affordability and the rising cost of living.
Thune and Johnson are also facing calls from some Republicans to more aggressively tackle the affordability issue with actual legislation this year, rather than just messaging around the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Obamacare. Before the recess, House Republican leaders were befuddled about the media coverage of the expiring enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Republicans repeatedly claimed that, despite controlling all of the government, this was Democrats’ problem.
This will come to a head in the coming weeks now that Congress has gone over the Jan. 1 Obamacare cliff. There will be tremendous pressure on every side, as we laid out in Thursday’s AM edition.
Trump is, again, calling on Congress to set up a program that would send money directly to consumers instead of “fat cat insurance companies.” This would be a massive undertaking for Congress. But Trump has been consistent here, even if his focus is a bit fleeting.
FISA. Lawmakers need to start thinking about the April 20 expiration of FISA’s Section 702. Section 702 allows the government agencies to conduct warrantless surveillance of non-Americans overseas.
Congress has struggled with renewing this provision over the years. The last time this provision came up for a vote was April 2024, with 88 House Republicans voting no. This will be incredibly tricky with Johnson’s tight margins and House Democrats not in a terribly cooperative mood.
Venezuela: Tensions continue to ratchet up between the United States and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
Venezuelan officials have recently detained several Americans, while U.S. forces persist with deadly attacks against alleged “narco terrorists.” There was also a CIA drone strike on a Venezuelan port facility.
As the buildup of U.S. forces in the region grows, Congress may be forced to weigh in on this issue.
