In 20 days, Virginia voters will decide if their legislature is allowed to gerrymander the state’s congressional map to turn 10 of the 11 House seats blue for the midterms.
Yet despite a high-profile push that includes former President Barack Obama, Democrats are growing increasingly skittish about the referendum.
A nonprofit allied with House Democratic leadership upped its investment to $20 million this week. Private polling indicates a tight race within or not too far outside the margin of error, according to sources briefed on the results.
Initial early-voting results also raised fresh concerns that Democratic voters weren’t turning out. That disparity is now shrinking. But there are still real concerns about Black voters, particularly because Republican mailers have featured Obama’s past comments disparaging gerrymandering to suggest he doesn’t support the referendum. In fact, Obama has made TV ads in favor of it.
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger won the state by 15 points in 2025, but overall, the Old Dominion is far more purple than blue.
“There’s no equivalence between her win in November and this referendum,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said of Spanberger. “We still have three weeks to go. To think, ‘It’s in the bag,’ would be a fatal mistake. We have to close very strong.”
Plenty of Democrats believe they’ll still win the redistricting referendum, yet the margin is too close for comfort. There’s also a massive financial gap in their favor.
Virginia Democrats’ pro-redistricting campaign has reported raising $38.3 million compared to Republicans’ $8 million. Some Republicans have privately suggested this signals that Virginia GOP leaders know they’ve lost the referendum and are saving their money for later in the cycle.
Dems’ challenge. The Democrats urging a yes vote on this referendum are the same ones who pushed voters to pass a bipartisan redistricting commission in 2020.
But that was a lifetime ago politically, particularly before President Donald Trump incited a mid-decade national redistricting battle. Virginia is a pivotal part of the Democrats’ response to the GOP effort. The current Virginia delegation is split 6D-5R. The new map would be an aggressive gerrymander of 10D-1R.
The Democratic message is to relentlessly stress that this referendum would only temporarily pause the redistricting commission, and that it’s only in response to GOP gerrymandering in Texas, North Carolina and other states, with Florida still upcoming. Democrats made their own big redistricting push in California and now Virginia.
But here’s the problem: Democrats could be victims of their own success in the redistricting wars. When California voters paused their redistricting commission last year, the GOP gerrymander of Texas was top of mind. Then Republicans lost their Indiana redistricting gambit, and their Florida play won’t begin until April 20, just before the Virginia referendum vote.
Spanberger also hasn’t been a champion of redistricting in the same way California Gov. Gavin Newsom shepherded a new map through a referendum in his state. (That’s led some Democrats to start pointing fingers at her.)
“Virginia’s not California,” Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) said. “It’s apples to oranges.”
GOP strategy. Republicans know they have to keep the Virginian referendum fight from being nationalized or becoming a referendum on Trump.
A path to victory looks like this: Republicans need to run up the margins in the Hampton Roads region and blow Democrats out of the water in the rural areas. Former GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin will campaign next week in the rural southwestern part of the state.
Republicans are aware they won’t win Northern Virginia and Richmond, but GOP insiders hope to avoid a huge loss there.
The Republican plan: use Democrats’ own words against them. Gerrymandering isn’t popular and that’s essentially what this referendum is asking voters to endorse.
Virginians for Fair Maps, the GOP group opposing the referendum, reported receiving a $5 million donation Tuesday from an allied nonprofit, bringing its total reported contributions to $8 million.
“The No side is unified and we are getting our message out about the illegal, disenfranchising maps put forth by the Democrats,” said Mike Young, campaign manager for Virginians for Fair Maps.
But another group has received more attention. Justice for Democracy sent mailers featuring a photo of Obama next to the text: “Protect Minority Representation. Vote NO on Gerrymandering!” Obama has endorsed the Yes campaign. A second mailer from an allied group compares the Yes campaign to “Jim Crow”’ and includes photos from the Civil Rights movement.
McClellan said she had heard overwhelmingly from Black voters who received those mailers. Democrats will hold news conferences and go on Black radio stations “to respond to that misinformation,” McClellan added.
“The mailings from President Obama, you can tell those are effective, because the other side is using his image to try to convince people to vote no.” Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.) said. “And I think we’ll see his engagement ramp up between now and April 21. People will hear more from him.”
Trump on Iran: Trump will address the nation on the Iran war at 9 p.m. tonight, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced.
